This is a repository copy of Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives (D5.3 for the History of Nuclear Energy and Society Project). White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/143916/ Version: Published Version Monograph: Cotton, Matthew David orcid.org/0000-0002-8877-4822, Rowe, Gene, Whitton, John et al. (9 more authors) (2019) Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives (D5.3 for the History of Nuclear Energy and Society Project). Research Report. European Commision , Brussels. Reuse This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs (CC BY-ND) licence. This licence allows for redistribution, commercial and non-commercial, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with credit to the original authors. More information and the full terms of the licence here: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing [email protected] including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. [email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ D5.3: Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives Lead author: Matthew Cotton (University of York) Evaluation report and review: Gene Rowe (GRE) Contributors, reviewers and workshop facilitators: John Whitton (UClan), Wilifred Konrad (DIALOGIK), Ioan Charnley-Parry (UClan), Pieter Cools (UAntwerpen), Jan- Henrik Meyer (UCPH), Josep Espluga Trenc (UAB), Mar Rubio (UPNA), Ana Prades López (CIEMAT), Ann Enander (FHS), Anne Bergmans (UAntwerpen) 1 D5.3: Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives 2 D5.3: Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives Table of Contents List of figures ............................................................................................................. 5 Introduction to the deliverable .................................................................................. 6 Futures studies .......................................................................................................... 6 Concepts in future studies ................................................................................................. 8 Typologies of future studies research .............................................................................. 10 Probability and predictability .......................................................................................... 12 Backcasting ............................................................................................................. 13 Backcasting methods ....................................................................................................... 14 Sampling, reliability and validity ...................................................................................... 16 Conceptual framework and data analysis ................................................................ 18 Workshop methods in practice ........................................................................................ 19 Part 1. The River of Life ..................................................................................................... 20 Part 2. Backcasting ideal nuclear engagement futures ..................................................... 22 Part 3. Action planning and reflection ............................................................................... 23 Results .................................................................................................................... 27 Part 1 – The River of Life findings ............................................................................ 27 Background ..................................................................................................................... 27 Structure and agency, stability and change ...................................................................... 29 Findings ................................................................................................................... 31 Structure and agency under different governance regimes .............................................. 31 Authoritarian and democratic influences upon nuclear energy engagements ................. 32 A role for public engagement ............................................................................................ 36 Democratic political regimes and engagement with science and technology .................. 39 Nuclear accidents and civil society engagement ............................................................... 42 Independent scientific advice ............................................................................................ 45 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 54 3 D5.3: Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives Part 2 - Backcasting nuclear engagement futures findings ....................................... 57 Mapping stakeholders ..................................................................................................... 58 Narratives of backcasted futures ..................................................................................... 60 Technological futures ........................................................................................................ 60 Technological, geographical and governance scales ......................................................... 60 Sustainable transformation in societal values .................................................................. 63 Education, trust and public knowledge systems .............................................................. 64 Promethean technology solutions ................................................................................... 67 Part 3 - Planning and policy making for nuclear engagement futures ....................... 69 Establish global education initiatives around energy alternatives .................................... 69 Establish a mechanism for long-term nuclear waste knowledge sharing .......................... 70 Engage in responsible research and innovation around nuclear fusion ............................ 71 Investigate engagement processes for 4th generation (including small-modular reactor) programmes .................................................................................................................... 72 Explore appropriate mechanisms for direct democratic engagement .............................. 73 Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 75 Evaluation of the HONEST Stakeholder Engagement Events .................................... 81 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 81 The Evaluation: Principles and Process ............................................................................ 81 Responses to the Participant Questionnaire .................................................................... 83 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 94 References .............................................................................................................. 95 Appendix 1: Evaluation Questionnaire ................................................................... 112 4 D5.3: Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives List of figures Figure 1 An Example River of Life ..................................................................... 21 Figure 2 Diagrammatic representation of backcasting ...................................... 23 Figure 4 A Dotmocracy™ sheet ........................................................................ 25 Figure 5 Stakeholder map of identified actors ................................................... 59 5 D5.3: Backcasting futures for nuclear energy and society: a qualitative analysis of European stakeholder perspectives Introduction to the deliverable For deliverable D5.3, the social scientists within the HoNESt project have engaged in empirical data collection on the issue of nuclear engagement futures. This research is situated within the context of the historical analysis of work package 2, which has examined the relationship between civil society and the development of the nuclear energy sector across Europe, and work package 4, which has identified the social characteristics of risk perception, social movements of opposition, policy, civil society and regulatory actors, and processes within a range of historical case studies. Within work package 5, the social scientists have identified specific principles of engagement and are working to develop a Theory of Change both within the broader HoNESt project, and for the practices of engagement and decision-making within the nuclear energy sector (Whitton, Charnley-Parry, and al. In preparation, Charnley-Parry et al. 2017). D5.3 specifically develops a practical methodology to facilitate