Zero Order Draft Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) Chapter 3 Direct Solar Energy Second Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) Chapter: 3 Title: Direct Solar Energy (Sub)Section: All Author(s): CLAs: Dan Arvizu; Palani Balaya LAs: Luisa F. Cabeza, Terry Hollands, Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, Michio Kondo, Charles Konseibo, Valentin Meleshko, Wes Stein, Yutaka Tamaura, Honghua Xu, Roberto Zilles CAs: Armin Aberle, Andreas Athienitis, Shannon Cowlin, Don Gwinner, Thomas Huld, Ted James, Lawrence Kazmerski, Margaret Mann, Koji Matsubara, Anton Meier, Ed Morofsky, Arun Mujumdar, Takashi Oozeki, Oumar Sanogo, Matheos Santamouris, Michael Sterner, Paul Weyers Remarks: Second Order Draft Version: 01 File name: SRREN_Draft02_Ch03 Date: 15-Jun-10 15:15 Time-zone: CET Template Version: 9 1 2 COMMENTS ON TEXT BY TSU TO REVIEWER 3 Turquoise highlighted – inserted comment text from Authors or TSU i.e. [AUTHORS/TSU] 4 Yellow highlighted – original chapter text to which comments are referenced 5 6 Chapter 3 has been allocated 68 pages in the SRREN. The actual chapter length (excluding 7 references & cover page) is 84 pages: a total of 16 pages over the allocated page number. Expert 8 reviewers are therefore kindly asked to indicate where the Chapter could be shortened by up to 16 9 pages in terms of text and/or figures and tables to reach the allocated length. 10 All monetary values provided in this document will need to be adjusted for inflation/deflation and 11 converted to US$ for the base year 2005. 12 Some values for 2008 or 2009 are not yet available, but should be by later this year: changes will be 13 made then to Fig. 3.9, Sec. 3.4.1 (active solar heating; below Table 3.3), Sec. 3.4.2 (active solar 14 heating and cooling). 15 16 17 Do Not Cite or Quote 1 of 98 Chapter 3 SRREN_Draft02_Ch03 15-Jun-10 Second Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 Chapter 3: Direct Solar Energy 2 CONTENTS 3 COMMENTS ON TEXT BY TSU TO REVIEWER..........................................................................1 4 Chapter 3: Direct Solar Energy....................................................................................................2 5 CONTENTS.........................................................................................................................................2 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................4 7 3.1 Introduction......................................................................................................................5 8 3.1.1 Brief History............................................................................................................5 9 3.1.2 Theoretical Potential and Nature of the Resource ...................................................6 10 3.1.3 Various Conversion Technologies and Applications...............................................6 11 3.1.4 Context Summary....................................................................................................7 12 3.2 Resource Potential............................................................................................................7 13 3.2.1 Global Technical Resource Potential.......................................................................7 14 3.2.2 Sources of Solar Radiation Data ............................................................................10 15 3.2.3 Possible Impact of Climate Change on Resource Potential...................................12 16 3.3 Technology and Applications........................................................................................13 17 3.3.1 Passive Solar..........................................................................................................13 18 3.3.2 Active Solar Heating and Cooling .........................................................................17 19 3.3.3 Photovoltaic Solar Electricity Generation..............................................................23 20 3.3.4 Concentrating Solar Power Solar Electricity Generation ......................................29 21 3.3.5 Solar Fuel Production ............................................................................................32 22 3.4 Global and Regional Status of Market and Industry Development ...............................37 23 3.4.1 Installed Capacity and Generated Energy..............................................................37 24 3.4.2 Industry Capacity and Supply Chain .....................................................................45 25 3.4.3 Impact of Policies...................................................................................................51 26 3.5 Integration into Broader Energy System........................................................................52 27 3.5.1 Building-Integrated Solar Energy ..........................................................................52 28 3.5.2 Low-Capacity Electricity Demand ........................................................................52 29 3.5.3 District Heating and Other Thermal Loads............................................................53 30 3.5.4 PV Generation Characteristics and Smoothing Effect...........................................54 31 3.5.5 CSP Generation Characteristics and Grid Stabilization.........................................54 32 3.6 Environmental and Social Impacts ................................................................................54 33 3.6.1 Environmental Impacts ..........................................................................................55 34 3.6.2 Social Impacts........................................................................................................60 35 3.7 Prospects for Technology Improvements and Innovation .............................................62 36 3.7.1 Passive Solar Technologies....................................................................................62 37 3.7.2 Active Solar Heating and Cooling .........................................................................63 38 3.7.3 PV Electricity Generation ......................................................................................64 39 3.7.4 CSP Electricity Generation ....................................................................................67 40 3.7.5 Solar Fuel Production ............................................................................................68 41 3.7.6 Other Potential Future Applications ......................................................................69 42 3.8 Cost Trends....................................................................................................................70 43 3.8.1 Passive Solar Technologies....................................................................................70 44 3.8.2 Active Solar Heating and Cooling .........................................................................71 45 3.8.3 PV Electricity Generation ......................................................................................74 46 3.8.4 CSP Electricity Generation ....................................................................................77 47 3.8.5 Solar Fuels Production...........................................................................................78 48 3.9 Potential Deployment.....................................................................................................79 Do Not Cite or Quote 2 of 98 Chapter 3 SRREN_Draft02_Ch03 15-Jun-10 Second Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 3.9.1 Near-Term Forecasts..............................................................................................79 2 3.9.2 Long-Term Deployment in the Context of Carbon Mitigation..............................80 3 3.9.3 Concluding Remarks on Potential Deployment.....................................................85 4 REFERENCES...................................................................................................................................86 Do Not Cite or Quote 3 of 98 Chapter 3 SRREN_Draft02_Ch03 15-Jun-10 Second Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 This Chapter summarizes the current status of the direct use of solar energy as a means to mitigate 3 climate change. Drawing on references from the most recent literature, we review solar energy’s 4 resource potential, describe the technology and its current status, look at the current trends in its 5 adoption, and provide predictions of its future role. We summarize here the important findings of 6 the Chapter. 7 Solar energy is the most abundant of all energy resources. Indeed, the rate at which solar energy is 8 intercepted by the Earth is about 10,000 times greater than the rate at which all energy is used on 9 this planet. In a more practical example, with today’s solar power technology, the world’s energy 10 requirements for electricity and for other needs could be met by operating solar power stations on 11 only about 4% of the surface area of the Sahara Desert. Although not all countries are equally 12 endowed with solar energy, almost every country receives sufficient direct solar energy that can 13 contribute significantly to its energy mix. 14 Solar technology embraces a family of technologies capable of being integrated amongst 15 themselves, as well as with other renewable energy technologies. The solar technologies