Middleton St George Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) January 2020 AECOM 2 Quality information Prepared by Checked by Approved by Paul Avery – Housing Kerry Parr – Associate Director Kerry Parr – Associate Director Research Consultant Revision History Revision Revision date Details Authorized Name Position 1 September 2019 Draft for PA Paul Avery Housing technical review Research Consultant 2 October 2019 Draft for group KP Kerry Parr Associate review Director 3 October 2019 Reviewed by JG Jo-Anne Garrick Planning group Consultant for Group 4 October Draft for Locality PA Paul Avery Housing review Research Consultant 5 January 2020 Selective Update KP Kerry Parr Associate Director AECOM 3 Prepared for: Middleton St George Parish Council Prepared by: AECOM Aldgate Tower 2 Leman Street London E1 8FA aecom.com © 2019 AECOM. All Rights Reserved. This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited (“AECOM”) in accordance with its contract with Locality (the “Client”) and in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. AECOM shall have no liability to any third party that makes use of or relies upon this document. Disclaimer This document is intended to aid the preparation of the Neighbourhood Plan, and can be used to guide decision making and as evidence to support Plan policies, if the Qualifying Body (i.e. the neighbourhood planning group) so chooses. It is not a neighbourhood plan policy document. It is a ‘snapshot’ in time and may become superseded by more recent information. The Qualifying Body is not bound to accept its conclusions. If any party can demonstrate that any of the evidence presented herein is inaccurate or out of date, such evidence can be presented to the Qualifying Body at the consultation stage. Where evidence from elsewhere conflicts with this report, the Qualifying Body should decide what policy position to take in the Neighbourhood Plan and that judgement should be documented so that it can be defended at the Examination stage. AECOM 4 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.1 Quantity ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Tenure ........................................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.3 Type and size ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 2. Context .................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Local context ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Planning policy context ............................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 Policies in the adopted Core Strategy ..................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 Policies in the emerging Local Plan ........................................................................................................................ 13 3. Approach ............................................................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Research Questions ................................................................................................................................................ 14 3.1.1 Quantity .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.2 Tenure and Affordability ........................................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.3 Type and Size .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 3.2 Relevant Data........................................................................................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 Local authority evidence base ................................................................................................................................. 15 3.2.2 Other relevant data .................................................................................................................................................. 15 4. RQ 1: Quantity ....................................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Standard method (Step 1) ....................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3 Latest available LPA planning strategy (Step 2) ..................................................................................................... 19 4.4 Past dwelling completions (Step 3) ......................................................................................................................... 20 4.5 Final Housing Need Figure ...................................................................................................................................... 20 5. RQ 2: Tenure and Affordability ............................................................................................................................................. 22 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2 Definitions ................................................................................................................................................................. 22 5.3 Current tenure profile ............................................................................................................................................... 22 5.4 Affordability ............................................................................................................................................................... 23 5.4.1 House prices ............................................................................................................................................................ 23 5.4.2 Income ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24 5.4.3 Affordability Thresholds ........................................................................................................................................... 25 5.4.4 Tenure split within Affordable Housing .................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.5 Affordable rented housing- quantity needed ........................................................................................................... 28 5.6 Conclusions- Tenure and Affordability .................................................................................................................... 31 6. RQ 3: Type and Size ............................................................................................................................................................. 35 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 35 6.2 Existing types and sizes .......................................................................................................................................... 35 6.2.1 Background and definitions ..................................................................................................................................... 35 6.2.2 Dwelling type ............................................................................................................................................................ 36 6.2.3 Dwelling size ............................................................................................................................................................ 36 6.3 Household composition and age structure .............................................................................................................. 38 6.3.1 Age structure ............................................................................................................................................................ 38