Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction Assessing the Impacts of Changes in the Information Technology R&D Ecosystem: Retaining Leadership in an Increasingly Global Environment EMBARGOED FROM PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL 11:00 am, January 23, 2009 except with express permission from the National Research Council. Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Changes in the Information Technology Research and Development Ecosystem Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under award number IIS- 0552216. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Additional copies of this report are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Internet: http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM ERIC BENHAMOU, Benhamou Global Ventures, Co-Chair RANDY H. KATZ, University of California, Berkeley, Co-Chair STEPHEN R. BARLEY, Stanford University ANDREW B. HARGADON, University of California, Davis MARTIN KENNEY, University of California, Davis STEVEN KLEPPER, Carnegie Mellon University EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA, University of Washington LENNY MENDONCA, McKinsey & Company DAVID C. NAGEL, Ascona Group ARATI PRABHAKAR, U.S. Venture Partners RAJ REDDY, Carnegie Mellon University LUCINDA SANDERS, National Center for Women and Information Technology Staff JON EISENBERG, Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board JOAN D. WINSTON, Program Officer1 KRISTEN R. BATCH, Associate Program Officer2 MARGARET MARSH HUYNH, Senior Program Assistant3 MORGAN R. MOTTO, Program Associate4 1 Until May 2008. 2 Until August 2008. 3 Until November 2007. 4 As of December 2007. v Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chair PRITHVIRAJ BANERJEE, Hewlett Packard Company FREDERICK R. CHANG, University of Texas, Austin WILLIAM DALLY, Stanford University MARK E. DEAN, IBM Almaden Research Center DEBORAH L. ESTRIN, University of California, Los Angeles KEVIN C. KAHN, Intel Corporation JAMES KAJIYA, Microsoft Corporation RANDY H. KATZ, University of California, Berkeley JOHN E. KELLY III, IBM Research SARA KIESLER, Carnegie Mellon University JON KLEINBERG, Cornell University PETER LEE, Carnegie Mellon University TERESA H. MENG, Stanford University WILLIAM H. PRESS, University of Texas, Austin PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Yahoo! Research DAVID E. SHAW, D.E. Shaw Research ALFRED Z. SPECTOR, Google, Inc. ROBERT F. SPROULL, Sun Microsystems, Inc. PETER SZOLOVITS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ANDREW J. VITERBI, Viterbi Group, LLC PETER WEINBERGER, Google, Inc. JON EISENBERG, Director RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Scientist LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Senior Program Officer NANCY GILLIS, Program Officer ENITA A. WILLIAMS, Associate Program Officer MORGAN R. MOTTO, Program Associate SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant ERIC WHITAKER, Senior Program Assistant For more information on CSTB, see its Web site at http://www.cstb.org, write to CSTB, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20001, call (202) 334-2605, or e-mail the CSTB at [email protected]. vi Pre-publication copy – subject to further editorial correction Preface The sustained development of information technology (IT) over the past several decades has contributed significantly to nearly every aspect of the U.S. economy and society. This development has been fueled by the participation and cooperation of members of an ecosystem comprising academic, industry, and government research and development (R&D) performers and supporters. Concern has been growing, however, that the historically highly successful U.S. IT innovation ecosystem is at risk. In this period of intense global competition—reflecting, notably, the growing economic strength of India and China—the consequences for the United States of faltering IT R&D and innovation could be quite severe. To address these concerns, the National Science Foundation asked the National Research Council (NRC) to assess the impacts of changes in the IT R&D infrastructure. The statement of task for the study was as follows: This study will assess the changes occurring to the structure, processes and outcomes that have historically characterized the nation’s long-term investment in information technology research and development. It will look broadly across academic, government and industry activities (including research, human resource and venture capital development), characterize issues and identify opportunities to sustain innovation. It will examine issues including the maturation of information technology research fields, economic processes of information technology research and production, international competition and collaboration (intellectual and economic), patterns of funding and the structure of funding programs as they affect the innovation and human resources pipeline. The study will examine alternative strategies and develop recommendations on actions that could be taken by the public and private sectors, alone and in partnership, to sustain and improve the health of the relevant research fields, and the historic pattern of technical innovation and national economic and security benefits. The Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Changes in the Information Technology Research and Development Ecosystem was appointed by the NRC and convened under the auspices of the NRC’s Computer Science and Telecommunications Board to conduct the study. The members of the study committee were drawn from academia and industry (see Appendix A for biosketches of the committee members). Individuals on the committee