Long term analysis of the role of dams Long term analysis of the role of dams This paper presents an analysis of the economic importance of dams. The paper reviews the long-term economic performance of four regions that received substantial water investments, and one region that did not (the base case). It finds that the regions that received investments in dams all had different growth paths, but in all cases performed significantly more strongly than the base case. March 2021 Final draft Acknowlegement Limitations of this Study This study has been produced as identified in the Executive Summary and the Introduction. The services provided for this report as commissioned comprise an advisory engagement, consequently no opinions, conclusions or recommendations are intended to convey assurance have been expressed. Aurecon Australasia Pty Ltd (Aurecon) and FTI Consulting (FTI) cannot and do not make any representation or guarantee as to the accuracy, reasonableness or reliability of information provided by persons or business that have provided input to the study. There are significant data challenges in studies that track such a long period, and while best efforts have been made, no guarantees regarding accuracy can be made. Aurecon and FTI consulting have indicated where the information has been sourced from interviews with persons or businesses but have not sort to independently verify that information. The arguments and conclusions derived in this study have been formed on this basis. Reliance This study has been prepared solely for use by the Far North Queensland Region of Councils (FNQROC) and is not to be used by any other party. No reliance is owed to any other party. 2 FinalLong term analysis of thedraft role of dams March 2021 Dams are a long life infrastructure asset To demonstrate these tenets, the Study with a nominal life of 100-150 years, has considered five sites: though no government owned and 1. Rockhampton, Queensland maintained dam in Australia has reached 2. Tinaroo Dam, Atherton Tablelands that age. The nature of the infrastructure (Queensland) is such that it can support transformative 3. Wellington Dam, Collie (Western changes in the surrounding communities Australia) and their economies. 4. Copeton Dam, Inverell (New South As the cost of a new major dam is Wales) typically over $100M, proposals for 5. San Luis Dam, Mercer County, dams in Queensland are assessed California (USA) under the Building Queensland (BQ) and Infrastructure Australia (IA) Business Rockhampton has been selected as a EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Case Frameworks including Cost Benefit Base Case as while various dam sites Analyses (CBA) conducted throughout have been mooted for this region for the course of the process. over 30 years, no dam was approved. It is acknowledged that since this Study The CBAs are generally assessed for an was commissioned, Rookwood Weir has immediate period of 30 years including received approval for construction from construction, with costs the Queensland State Government. The and benefits occurring beyond this other sites have had operating dams timeframe being distilled to over 30 years old. ‘residual costs’ for inclusion in the assessment. There are strict The Case Studies have considered for guidelines as to what can/ not be each site the following factors since the included in the CBA respective dam was commissioned and assessments including forecasts of future compared it to the Base Case: economic benefits. • % changes in population Procedures in other states are similar • The change in the type of to those in Queensland. employment and the sectors that have experienced growth This study has at its focus, two core • The relative changes in Agricultural tenets about the current process for Productivity evaluating proposals for dams. • The change in the type of agricultural product and volume of production 2. Where the 1. Current investment has been assessment made, the dams processes do facilitate longer-term not adequately benefits for regions capture the and communities benefits that compared to regions can be derived and communities through these where such long-lived pieces investment has not of infrastructure. been made. 3 FinalLong term analysis of thedraft role of dams March 2021 For each of the dam sites the Study has also This investment has occurred not only in the reviewed: initial 30 years, but significant investment has • Growth in associated markets occurred in the period outside the 30 year post- • Synergies that are attributable to the security commissioning milestone. The ability to consider of water provided by the dam the dam infrastructure as a ‘sunk cost’ has made • How the dam has contributed to resilience the subsequent investments possible. for the community in the face of market / environmental changes The relative growth of Agricultural production has been 60%-80% compared Based on the evidence identified for the various with 0%-10% growth in the Base Case over sites, the Case Studies indicate that: similar timeframes Maturation of supply chains and Population in the case study sites has technological developments have grown at approximately 2-3 times the provided new markets for higher value rate of the Base Case over a similar produce than could have been envisaged timeframe at the time of the Business Cases for the subject Case studies. This has resulted in a higher Agricultural and other markets have value of return for the economies in these local benefited as a result of synergies communities and subsequent improved economic between the dam infrastructure and benefits for the State and Federal governments. other non-related infrastructure, that could not have occurred without the dam infrastructure being in place. The security of water provided by the dams has been fundamental in providing a resilience to local communities to changes of markets, policy The security of water afforded by the and economic conditions. This ability dams has provided other public and of local economies to pivot would not private sector investment in subsequent have been available without the dam. infrastructure that would not have occurred without the initial investment in the dam. 4 FinalLong term analysis of thedraft role of dams March 2021 From this evidence based approach, it is guidelines) have arisen and are significant, contended that the nature of dam infrastructure particularly when compared to a region that did does not comfortably lend itself to the current not receive that initial investment. approach used for assessing government investment. While the Business Framework In regions where the initial investment has not Guidelines acknowledge that there can be been made, potential economic growth in the substantial lags between the initial outlay in community is stunted both directly and indirectly. terms of construction cost and resulting economic This decision making does not provide regional benefit, dams take considerably longer to and generational equity. demonstrate those benefits compared to other infrastructure such as roads, hospitals and energy Accordingly, FNQROC calls on the State and projects. The ability to forecast these longer Federal Governments to reconsider their terms benefits beyond 30 years does not appear positions on the assessment procedures for to appropriately capture the opportunities that investment in dams. arise either directly or indirectly as a result of the investment in dams. However, subsequent investment is easier to validate. The current Guidelines advocate that longer term studies should be conducted to review the initial investment decision. However, no evidence of this type of study being undertaken on the Case Study sites (or other sites) was identified. Such studies could of helped inform recent dam assessment processes. These Case Studies appear to be the first attempt to identify longer-term benefits. It is acknowledged that the work undertaken to date is not a comprehensive economic evaluation, but it is indicative that longer-term benefits that could not have been considered (under current day 5 FinalLong term analysis of thedraft role of dams March 2021 Limitations of this Study 2 Reliance 2 Executive Summary 3 1. Introduction 3 1.1. Background 7 1.2. The nominated case studies 7 1.3. Methodology 7 1.4. Limitations 8 2. Considerations for dam assessments 9 2.1. Summary 9 2.2. Dams are different 10 2.3. Review of the business case framework for dam assessments 10 2.4. What do CBAs for dams currently consider 11 3. Review of longer-term benefits 15 3.1. Summary 15 Table of contents Table of 3.2. Provision of resilience 16 3.3. Disruption of traditional product timelines 16 3.4. Market Maturation 17 4. Data sources and definitions 18 5. Base Case - Rockhampton 19 6. Case Study I – Tinaroo Falls Dam 20 6.1. Tinaroo history and uses 20 6.2. Economic case 23 6.3. Case study 1 Conclusion: What errors would an ex ante CBA have made? 31 7. Case Study II : Wellington Dam, Western Australia 33 7.1. Wellington Dam, History and uses 33 7.2. Collie River Irrigation District (CIRD) 35 7.3. Economic overview 36 7.4. Agriculture over time 37 7.5. Taxation 40 7.6. Case study 2 Conclusion: What would an ex-ante CBA have made? 40 8. Case Study III – Copeton Dam 41 8.1. Copeton Dam, History and uses 41 8.2. Copeton Dam features 42 8.3. Economic Overview 42 8.4. Agriculture 43 8.5. Flow on impacts - manufacturing 44 8.6. Taxation 45 8.7. Case study 3 Conclusion: What would a normal CBA miss? 45 9. Case Study IV – San Luis Dam 46 9.1. San Luis Dam, History and uses 46 9.2. San Luis Dam Features 47 9.3. Economic Overview 48 9.4. Agriculture then and now 48 9.5. Flow on impacts 49 9.6. Case study conclusion: What would an ex-ante CBA miss? 50 10.