2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan Technical Report #4 Needs Assessment DRAFT October 2020 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 2.0 Special Considerations............................................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Resilience ............................................................................................................................................ 2 2.2 Tourism ............................................................................................................................................... 7 3.0 Emerging Trends ................................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Changing Demographics and Travel Patterns ................................................................................... 11 3.2 Shared Mobility ................................................................................................................................. 14 3.3 Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV) .................................................................................... 21 3.4 Electric and Alternative Fuel Vehicles ............................................................................................... 29 4.0 Roadways and Bridges .......................................................................................................................... 32 4.1 Congestion Relief Needs ................................................................................................................... 32 4.2 Maintenance Needs .......................................................................................................................... 39 4.3 Safety Needs ..................................................................................................................................... 41 5.0 Freight .................................................................................................................................................. 48 5.1 Freight Truck Needs .......................................................................................................................... 48 5.2 Freight Rail Needs ............................................................................................................................. 59 5.3 Air Network Needs ............................................................................................................................ 68 5.4 Waterway Network Needs ................................................................................................................ 71 5.5 Pipeline Network Needs ................................................................................................................... 72 6.0 Bicycle and Pedestrian.......................................................................................................................... 73 6.1 Infrastructure/Facility Needs ............................................................................................................ 73 6.2 Maintenance Needs .......................................................................................................................... 79 6.3 Safety and Security Needs ................................................................................................................ 80 7.0 Public Transit ........................................................................................................................................ 81 7.1 Service Needs .................................................................................................................................... 81 7.2 Maintenance and Capital Needs ....................................................................................................... 86 7.3 Safety Needs ..................................................................................................................................... 87 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan i Hattiesburg-Petal-Forrest-Lamar Metropolitan Planning Organization List of Tables Table 2.1: Greater Hattiesburg Tourism Attractions .......................................................................... 9 Table 4.1: Person Trips by Purpose, 2018 to 2045 ........................................................................... 32 Table 4.2: Travel Demand Impact of Growth and Existing and Committed Projects, 2018 to 2045 33 Table 4.3: Roadway Corridors with Volumes Exceeding Capacity, 2045 .......................................... 35 Table 4.4: Recommended Intersection Improvement Projects ........................................................ 38 Table 4.5: Bridges in Poor Condition ................................................................................................. 40 Table 4.6: High Crash Frequency or Crash Rate Locations in the MPA ............................................. 45 Table 5.1: Changes in Commodity Flows by Truck, 2016 to 2045 .................................................... 50 Table 5.2: Top Inbound Truck Trading Partners with Largest Increases in Trading Activity with MPA ....................................................................................................................................... 50 Table 5.3: Top Outbound Truck Trading Partners with Largest Increases in Trading Activity with MPA ... 51 Table 5.4: Top Commodities by Truck Tonnage Increase ................................................................. 51 Table 5.5: Top Commodities by Truck Value Increase ...................................................................... 52 Table 5.6: Changes in Commodity Flows by Rail, 2016 to 2045 ....................................................... 60 Table 5.7: Top Inbound Rail Trading Partners with Largest Increases in Trading Activity with MPA61 Table 5.8: Top Outbound Rail Trading Partners with Largest Increases in Trading Activity with MPA ....................................................................................................................................... 61 Table 5.9: Top Commodities by Rail Tonnage Increase .................................................................... 62 Table 5.10: Top Commodities by Rail Value Increase ....................................................................... 62 Table 5.11: Maximum Operating Speed at Railroad Crossings in the MPA, 2018 ............................ 63 Table 5.12: Top Commodities by Air Tonnage Increase ................................................................... 69 Table 5.13: Top Commodities by Air Value Increase ........................................................................ 69 Table 5.14: MPA Airport Runway Information ................................................................................. 69 2045 Metropolitan Transportation Plan ii Hattiesburg-Petal-Forrest-Lamar Metropolitan Planning Organization List of Figures Figure 2.1: Green Infrastructure Examples ......................................................................................... 5 Figure 2.2: Purpose for Visiting Mississippi, 2017 ............................................................................. 7 Figure 3.1: Growth in Senior Population .......................................................................................... 11 Figure 3.2: Trends in the Average Daily Person Trips by Age ........................................................... 12 Figure 3.3: Trends in the Average Annual Person Trips per Household by Trip Purpose ................. 13 Figure 3.4: Public Bike-Sharing and Scooter-Sharing Systems in United States, 2019 ..................... 15 Figure 3.5: U.S. Micromobility Trips, 2010 to 2018 .......................................................................... 16 Figure 3.6: Average Micromobility Trips by Hour ............................................................................. 16 Figure 3.7: Average Micromobility Trip Characteristics .................................................................... 17 Figure 3.8: U.S. Ridesharing Market Share ....................................................................................... 18 Figure 3.9: TNC and Taxi Ridership in the U.S., 1990 to 2018 .......................................................... 19 Figure 3.10: TNC Ridership by Time of Day in Nashville ................................................................... 19 Figure 3.11: Connected Vehicle Communication Types ................................................................... 22 Figure 3.12: Levels of Automation .................................................................................................... 23 Figure 3.13: Potential Autonomous Vehicle Market Share, 2020 to 2040 ....................................... 24 Figure 3.14: Future Mobility Scenarios ............................................................................................. 25 Figure 3.15: Light-Duty Vehicles on the Road by Fuel Type, 2017 to 2045 ...................................... 30 Figure 4.1: Future Roadway Congestion, 2045 (Existing+Committed) ............................................. 36 Figure 5.1: Freight Truck Growth, 2018 to 2045 ............................................................................... 54 Figure 5.2: Freight Truck Traffic, 2045 .............................................................................................