Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Method to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Development Using Hydrologic Alteration as a Surrogate to Address Aquatic-Life Impairment in New Jersey Streams Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5089 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey B A C F D E Cover. Photographs showing examples of hydrologic alteration near U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in the Raritan River watershed, New Jersey: A, gated flow-regulating dam, South Branch Rockaway Creek at Whitehorse Station, NJ; B, concrete weir in stream channel, Stony Brook at Princeton, NJ; C, stream subject to reservoir releases and streamwater diversions, South Branch Raritan River at Stanton, NJ; D, gated flow-regulating dam, Manalapan Brook at Spotswood, NJ; E, masonry dam, North Branch Raritan River at Far Hills, NJ; and F, concrete weir across stream channel, Millstone River at Blackwells Mills, NJ. (Photographs by U.S. Geological Survey.) Method to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Development Using Hydrologic Alteration as a Surrogate to Address Aquatic-Life Impairment in New Jersey Streams By Jonathan G. Kennen, Melissa L. Riskin, Pamela A. Reilly, and Susan J. Colarullo Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5089 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior SALLY JEWELL, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2013 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Suggested citation: Kennen, J.G., Riskin, M.L., Reilly, P.A., and Colarullo, S.J., 2013, Method to support Total Maximum Daily Load development using hydrologic alteration as a surrogate to address aquatic life impairment in New Jersey streams: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5089, 86 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5089/ iii Acknowledgments The authors thank the many individuals of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, especially Barbara Hirst, Donna Milligan, Dean Bryson, Kimberly Cenno, Jeffrey Hoffman, Alfred Korndoerfer, and Victor Poretti, who dedicated time and resources in support of this cooperative study. Additional technical support from Donald Rice and James Henriksen of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), New Jersey Water Science Center and Fort Collins Science Center, respectively, is immensely appreciated. Special thanks to Brian Cade of the USGS Fort Collins Science Center for his help and insight regarding quantile-regression modeling. We are indebted to the many USGS scientists, including Blaine White, Richard Edwards, Andrew Watson, Jason Shvanda, John Trainor, Brian Painter, Aric Vanselous, Heidi Hoppe, Robert Atkinson, Sarina Howell, Charlie Shivers, Jerilyn Collenburg, Vincent Brown, Patrick Bowen, and Michal Niemoczynski, who, on an annual basis, carry out the continuous-record monitoring of New Jersey streams. Their hard work and dedication to collecting and publishing timely hydrologic information represents the scientific backbone of studies such as this. Additionally, Jason May, Brian Caskey, Tanja Williamson, and Dale Simmons of the USGS provided many useful suggestions that helped improve this report. Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 The TMDL Process in New Jersey ....................................................................................................4 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................5 Description of Study Area ...................................................................................................................5 Statewide Ambient Biomonitoring Network (AMNET) ...................................................................7 Statewide Watershed Runoff Model ..........................................................................................................8 Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process ......................................................................................9 Identifying Baseline Periods of Record and Stream Class in the Raritan River Basin ....................10 Application of Quantile Regression to Identify Baseline Periods of Record .....................................12 Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of Watershed Model Parameters ..............................................19 Reevaluation of Raritan River Basin Stream Classes ............................................................................19 Simulation of Unaltered Streamflow ........................................................................................................20 Determining Deviation of Streamflow from Baseline Conditions ........................................................21 Class A Streams ..................................................................................................................................21 Comparisons with the Observed Baseline ............................................................................21 Comparisons with the Simulated Baseline ............................................................................24 Class C Streams ..................................................................................................................................26 Management Implications..........................................................................................................................27 Reservoirs and Dams ........................................................................................................................27 Impervious Surface Cover .................................................................................................................29 Water Abstraction ..............................................................................................................................30 iv Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Invertebrate-Assemblage Response ..............................................31 Site Selection and Data Aggregation ..............................................................................................31 Aquatic-Invertebrate Analysis .........................................................................................................31 Use of Ecological Impairment to Define a Hydrologic Disturbance Gradient .........................34 Data-Reduction Procedures and Analytical Approach ................................................................34 Evaluation of Aquatic-Invertebrate Metrics as a Basis for Flow-Ecology Response Model Development ...................................................................................................................................37 Bivariate Flow-Ecology Response Relations .................................................................................37 Multivariate Flow-Ecology Response Models ...............................................................................39 Data Limitations............................................................................................................................................42 Differences between Observed and Simulated Baseline Periods of Record ...........................42 Flow-Ecology Response Models ......................................................................................................45 Summary and Conclusions .........................................................................................................................46 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................49 Appendix 1. Definitions of the 171 hydrologic indices .......................................................................61 Appendix 2. Deviations of flow-management targets for the Raritan River Basin study area, New Jersey .....................................................................................................................................69 Figures 1. Location of study sites in the Raritan River Basin study area, New Jersey .......................6 2. Hydrograph for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage Raritan River below Calco Dam at Bound Brook, New Jersey, 1945–2006 ......................................................................11 3. Percent impervious surface cover and location of wells and discharge sites that may