COVID-19 SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT JULY 2020 COVID-19 SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT JULY 2020 UNIC Ankara Photograph by Levent Kulu / UNDP Turkey Ministry of Health ILO Turkey Berke Araklı / ILO Turkey Emrah Gürel / UNHCR Turkey Mehmet Cemtaş / WFP Turkey Yaser Derviş / UNFPA Turkey Design Carnavale Print COVID-19 SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................15 Pillar 1. Health First......................................................................................................................................19 1.1. Covid-19 and the resilience of the health system in Turkey .............................................................................19 1.2. Ability of the health system to sustain specific services ................................................................................... 21 1.2.1. Mental Health .................................................................................................................................................................... 21 1.2.2. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) ....................................................................................................................22 1.2.3. Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH) ................................................................................................................23 1.2.4. Youth and Adolescent Health ...................................................................................................................................23 1.2.5. Child Health ........................................................................................................................................................................24 Pillar 2. Protecting People ..........................................................................................................................27 2.1. Social Protection ......................................................................................................................................................................27 2.2. Children ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 2.2.1. Social Conditions .............................................................................................................................................................31 2.2.2. Education .............................................................................................................................................................................32 2.2.3. Child Protection................................................................................................................................................................34 2.2.4. Adolescents and Young People ................................................................................................................................35 2.3. Gender Inequalities and Gender Based Violence ...................................................................................................36 2.3.1. Gender Based Violence .................................................................................................................................................36 2.3.2. Gender Equality in Labour Markets .......................................................................................................................38 2.3.3. Gender Parity in the Health Sector ........................................................................................................................39 2.3.4. Unpaid Care and Domestic Work ........................................................................................................................... 40 2.3.5. Leadership and participation....................................................................................................................................41 Pillar 3. Economic Response and Recovery ............................................................................................. 43 3.1. Labour Market Implications of the Covid-19 Crisis ................................................................................................43 3.1.1. Employment and Unemployment Dynamics .....................................................................................................43 3.1.2. Working Conditions ........................................................................................................................................................46 3.1.3. Social Dialogue ................................................................................................................................................................ 48 3.2. Impact on Businesses ...........................................................................................................................................................49 3.3. Covid-19 and the Agri-food Sector...................................................................................................................................53 3.4. Pathways for a more inclusive, environmentally sustainable and resilient recovery ........................55 3.4.1. Environmental Sustainability and Green Economy .......................................................................................55 3.4.2. Sustainable consumption and production.........................................................................................................55 COVID-19 SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT 1 3.4.3. Clean energy transition ...............................................................................................................................................56 3.4.4. Nature-based solutions ...............................................................................................................................................57 3.4.5. Natural resources management .............................................................................................................................57 Pillar 4. Macroeconomic Response and Multilateral Collaboration .....................................................61 4.1. Transmission channels of the Covid-19 crisis ...........................................................................................................62 4.1.1 External Demand Channel ............................................................................................................................................62 4.1.2. Domestic Demand Channel ........................................................................................................................................63 4.1.3. Financial Distress Channel .........................................................................................................................................63 4.1.4. Uncertainty Channel ......................................................................................................................................................64 4.2. Early Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis ...............................................................................................................................64 4.2.1. Economic Activity ............................................................................................................................................................64 4.2.2. External Balances ............................................................................................................................................................67 4.2.3. Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy ...................................................................................................................69 4.2.4. Financial Markets ............................................................................................................................................................70 4.2.5. Public Finances ................................................................................................................................................................72 4.2.6. External Financing Needs ...........................................................................................................................................74 4.3. Government Response and Policy Options for a Resilient Economy and Better Recovery ..............75 4.4. Multilateral Collaboration and Covid-19 ......................................................................................................................78 Pillar 5. Social Cohesion and Community Resilience .............................................................................81 5.1. Public Service Delivery and Governance at local levels ......................................................................................81 5.2. Human Rights and Community Dynamics ..................................................................................................................82 5.2.1. Right to Liberty and Security of Person/Right to Life, Health and Safety of Persons Deprived of Liberty/Judiciary/Access to Justice ..............................................................................................................................82