COMBINING BIG DATA WITH SMALL DATA FOR THE BEST RESULTS OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS 1 Inbound Tourism 2 STATISTICS INDONESIA LIMITATION OF MOBILE POSITIONING DATA Lack of Qualitative Data (such as purpose of visits, accommodation type). Expenditure. Mobile phone usage (mobile phone usage behaviour). Small data (survey data) is required to obtain data that can not be provided by mobile positioning data 3 Sintang&Talaud (PH) Riau islands (SG border) Borneo (MY) Papua (PNG) East Nusa Tenggara (TL) 4 Immigration entry points Roamer trip start area high low Malaysia Borneo - Kalimantan Kalimantan 100 km Indonesia STATISTICS INDONESIA CROSS-BORDER SURVEY Cross Border Survey to obtain: Mobile phone Usage During Crossing Border Expenditure Purpose of Travel Main Occupation Survey was conducted in 25 Kabupaten cover 76 gates, July & October 2017, samples= 36.000 6 STATISTICS INDONESIA BORDER SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE Purpose of visit Occupation Length of stay How many phones Frequency of visit How many SIM cards Country of residence Nationality Expenditure 7 WHAT IS MPD? DATA OVER- AND UNDERCOVERAGE Indonesian Foreign resident resident Undercoverage Not roaming Roaming Transit Worker Tourist Foreign SIM Roaming Not roaming Not tourist - exclude Overcoverage Foreign SIM Local SIM card add Multiple SIM Switch off - Exclude >1 roaming Single SIM Switch off phone MPD MPDinNot No cell phone STATISTICS INDONESIA FILTERING MPD AT BORDER GATES 푴푷푫 ퟏ ퟏ 푨푻 = × × − 푾푪푰 푿풓풐풂풎 ퟏ − 푷풏풓 푴푺 AT : Additional Tourists based on MPD MPD : Number of sim card foreigner detected by MNO Xroam : Ratio sim card per mobile phone Pnr : Ratio of foreigner Non-roaming (using local sim card or no mobile phone) MS : Market share WCI : Inbound Tourism recorded by Immigration 9 WHAT IS MPD? DATA OVER- AND UNDERCOVERAGE Indonesian Foreign resident resident Undercoverage Not roaming Roaming Transit Worker Tourist Foreign SIM Roaming Not roaming P Ratio LOS1 Filter Pw Ratio Overcoverage Foreign SIM Local SIM card Multiple SIM Switch off Xroam Ratio roaming Ratio NR P Single SIM Switch off phone MPD No cell phone Bengkalis remain Bengkalis dropped VISITORS GRAPH DROPPED SEAMEN GRAPH 40000 50000 30000 40000 30000 20000 20000 10000 10000 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2018 2019 1 Stay in Bengkalis waters >6h 1 Go straight to Batam 3 Go to Dumai 2 Enter Bengkalis inland 2 Go straight to Karimun 3 Go to Sumatra TTU remain TTU dropped VISITORS GRAPH DROPPED SEAMEN AND ACCIDENTAL 40000 ROAMING GRAPH 30000 15000 20000 10000 10000 5000 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2018 2019 3 Use Atambua airport 1 Go to Atambua 2 Seamen 3 TL transit 1 Accidental Roaming 2 Go to nearby ID towns in one cell TTU remain TTU dropped Lesson Learnt Survey is also useful to MPD is useful, it gives obtain ground truth and more accurate and qualitative and quantitative data that coverage compare to So, there is no cross border survey. can not be obtain from data source that However, there also MPD is superior to limitation of MPD. other data source. All of data source could complete each other 14 CONCLUSION Combining mobile positioning data (big data) and survey (small data) 1 provide the best result of official statistics MPD survey 2 Formula for additional tourism at the border 푴푷푫 ퟏ ퟏ 푨푻 = × × − 푾푪푰 푿풓풐풂풎 ퟏ − 푷풏풓 푴푺 3 Combining mobile positioning data (big data) and administrative data (immigration data) also provide the best result of official statistics 15 Domestic Tourism and 2 Commuting 16 STATISTICS INDONESIA COMPARISON (1) Household Survey (Conventional) Using MPD & digital survey . Distribution sample . Distribution sample . 30.000 census blocks, . All census block (more . 50.000 travellers than 800.000) . +/- 140 million subscribers . Listing, chose eligible . All domestic tourism sample, estimate subscribe to MNO, population estimate for the non . face to face interview subscribers . Ground check 17 STATISTICS INDONESIA COMPARISON (2) Household Survey MPD & Digital Survey . Minimum : . 8.000 x 4 = 32.000 man . No enumerators are survey needed, reduce work . Recruitment burden . Training . Questionnaire & manual . Office supplies . Quarterly, memory lapse . Monthly (timeliness), . Sampling problem even daily data . Resistant from respondent . Fact, real data . Remote area problem, (accuracy) difficult to be reached 18 One subscriber Tourism Trip Tourism Trip Work Home STATISTICS INDONESIA CONNECTION BETWEEN THE DIGITAL SURVEY & MPD ONE SUBSCRIBER TOURISM TRIP POPULATION FOR EACH SUBSCRIBER: 1. REMOVE USUAL ENVIRONMENT; 2. APPLY TOURISM ALGORITHM; 3. MAKE A LIST OF NUMBER THAT DO TOURIST TRIPS; 4. THIS LIST IS A SAMPLING FRAME FOR THE DIGITAL SURVEY SAMPLE FOR SUBSCRIBER WHO TRAVEL 1. SEND SMS; 2. ASK THEIR PROFILE; 3. ASK WHETHER THEY VISITED CERTAIN AREA; 4. ASK FOR PURPOSE OF TRIPS, TRANSPORTATION, ACCOMMODATION, EXPENDITURE 20 21 DOMESTIC VISITOR – DIGITAL SURVEY TO COMPLETE BIG DATA 22 DOMESTIC VISITOR – DIGITAL SURVEY TO COMPLETE BIG DATA STATISTICS INDONESIA THE SANDBOXING SCENARIO A (AT THE VERY BEGINNING) BPS TEAM WENT TO MNO AND DID SANDBOXING THERE MEMBER OF THE TEAM: DATA SCIENTIST, METHODOLOGY STAFF, TOURISM STATISTIC STAFF SCENARIO B (LATER ON) BPS TEAM CONNECT TO MNO SERVER THROUGH VPN WE NEED TO REQUEST FOR AN ACCESS AND RENEW THE ACCESS EVERY 4 (FOUR) HOURS. SCENARIO C (WHAT WE WISH FOR) MNO HAND THE DATA OVER TO BPS TEAM 23 THANK YOU.