St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 St Neots – Service Review January 2020 Report based on October report originally compiled by: Simon Tait, NHS E&I, and updated by Sue Oakman 8/1/20 Contents Introduction and Background ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Population and Growth ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Primary Care Provision .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Out of Hospital Urgent Care Capacity ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………….16 Procurement options appraisal………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………….. 17 1 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Introduction and Background 1.1. St Neots is a town and civil parish in the non-metropolitan county of Cambridgeshire, England, within the historic county of Huntingdonshire, next to the Bedfordshire county border. It lies on the banks of the River Great Ouse in the Huntingdonshire District, 15 miles (24 km) west of Cambridge and 50 miles (80 km) north of central London. The town has a mainline train station and the A1 borders the town with both providing direct transport links to London and Peterborough. St Neots is the largest town in Cambridgeshire with a population of approximately 34,000 in 2017. There is has been significant growth in this area in the last five years and there is current and further planned growth with a total of 3,820 homes to be completed across two major developments by 2036. 2 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 1.2 Town Location & Population Density 3 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Area (Square miles) 5.899 Two large developments currently under construction with a total of 3820 ONS Census Number of households 13,148 residential properties. 2011 Avg. Household size On par with other LA’s within Cambridgeshire & Peterborough. Lowest being 2.37 (occupancy rate) Forest Heath (2.17) Highest Cambridge (2.54) PHE Highest level is Eaton Socon at 31.24. other LSOAs average 17.8, with the lowest Deprivation score (IMD) 17.8 Fingertips being 3.68 in Eaton Ford. Population count (individuals) 31,165 ONS 2011 National survey Population estimate ONS census 33,970 ONS 2017 figures (individuals) 2011 Density per M2 5,232.20 4 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Population and Growth 2.1 The St Neots area is expecting significant growth over the next twenty years. The Local authority have published their Masterplan for Growth, in which they explain in detail how the intention is to double the size of the St Neots Economy with the addition of £285m of GVA and 4000 extra jobs. To achieve this goal, the A428, the direct link highway from St Neots to Cambridge, is undergoing improvement works. A government proposed cross-country high-speed rail link between Cambridge and Oxford would pass just to the south of St Neots, with the potential for the line to be connected to St Neots via the East coast Mainline. Large industrial and manufacturing bases are being created to the south of the town. To accommodate the expected increase of workers for this new manufacturing base, two large housing developments are in construction to the east of the Town. All phases of these developments with a combined total of 3,820 residential properties and two schools are expected to be completed by 2036. 5 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 20 year 15 year 10 year The population projection is based on the ONS 2016 Indication of 5 year the Future size of the population by local authority. This calculation does not take into consideration the expected growth from the Population estimate ONS 2017 Loves Farm and Wintringham Park developments. Population count ONS 2011 28000 30000 32000 34000 36000 38000 Population Population count ONS estimate 5 year 10 year 15 year 20 year 2011 ONS 2017 Series1 31165 33970 35125 35872 36654 37231 20 year 15 year 10 year Taking into consideration the total number of dwellings to be completed 5 year between the two developments (3820), multiplied by the Occupancy rate (2.37), there is an approximation of 9,053 residents to be factored into the Population estimate ONS 2017 above projection. By averaging the growth over the twenty-year projection, Population count ONS 2011 an increase of 2,263 extra patients is expected every five years. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Population Population count ONS estimate 5 year 10 year 15 year 20 year 2011 ONS 2017 Series1 31165 33970 37388 38136 38917 39494 6 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Primary Care Provision GP Practice Premises (Inc branch Surgeries) 7 GP Practices 5 Combined weighted list size 44,523.22 Shape Combined total list size 48,200.00 No of NHS England GP Contracts 5 Pharmacies 5 Dental services 5 Optometrists 4 Shape Care Homes 9 Children’s Centres 2 7 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Y02769 St Neots Health Centre Contract Weighted List size NIA (m2) Premises Capacity Property Ownership Rent Rebate (Max no of patients) APMS 5,040 365 5,331 Private Landlord £48,000pa Initially a walk-in centre with a registered list. Has seen a significant increase in patient numbers over the last 3yrs. Map shows inner and outer boundary of the practice. 8 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 D81057 Lakeside Healthcare – St Neots. Contract Weighted List size NIA (m2) Premises Capacity Property Ownership Rent Rebate (Max no of patients) GMS Partnership 22,815 1617 23,585 GP owned £80,850pa Created from a recent merger of two practices (cedar house and Eaton Socon merged on 01/04/19)) to one contract. The contract is now held by Lakeside Healthcare a Super partnership based mostly in Northants area. 9 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 D81082 Almond road Surgery. Contract Weighted List size NIA (m2) Premises Capacity Property Ownership Rent Rebate (Max no of patients) GMS Partnership 6,049 258 3,762 GP Owned £48,200pa 10 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 D81081 Great Staughton Surgery Contract Weighted List size NIA (m2) Premises Capacity Property Ownership Rent Rebate (Max no of patients) GMS Sole Provider 3,653 168 2,455 GP Owned £24,150pa Rural practice 4.25 miles to the North West of St Neots. Practice boundary covers the majority of the St Neots parish, including the two housing development areas. 11 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 D81038 Kimbolton Medical Practice. Contract Weighted List size NIA (m2) Premises Capacity Property Ownership Rent Rebate (Max no of patients) GMS Partnership 6,965 354 5,168 GP Owned £73,150pa Rural practice 7.3 miles to the North West of St Neots. Practice boundary covers the majority of the town of St Neots, but not the two new housing developments. 12 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Primary Care Networks Primary Care Networks PCN Population A1 Network 33,571 St Neots PCN 53,528 Almond road “orphaned practice” not in a PCN. A1 Network St Neots PCN 13 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Primary Care Premises Capacity Based on the current GP Practice premises Net internal Area (NIA) there is a capacity deficit of around 300m2 which equates to approximately 4,200 patients Required NIA (m2) for 20 year population projection Required NIA (m2) for 15 year population projection Required NIA (m2) for 10 year population projection Required NIA (m2) for 5 year population projection Required premises NIA (m2) for current weighted list Current total premises NIA (m2) capacity 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Required premises Required NIA (m2) Required NIA (m2) Required NIA (m2) Required NIA (m2) Current total NIA (m2) for for 5 year for 10 year for 15 year for 20 year premises NIA (m2) current weighted population population population population capacity list projection projection projection projection Series1 2764 3053 3157 3224 3294 3346 14 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Available Capacity Total NIA Practice Capacity Current Growth Practice Practice required Capacity Growth Practice Name Weighted (Weighted Code Size for list (weighted (NIA m2) List size patients) (m2) size (m2) Patients) Y02769 St Neots Health Centre 365.58 5040.1 345.6 5,331.4 291.3 20.0 D81057 Lakeside Healthcare St. Neots 1617.3 22815.14 1564.5 23,585.6 770.5 52.8 D81082 Almond Road Surgery 258 6049.17 414.8 3,762.5 -2,286.7 -156.8 D81081 Great Staughton Surgery 168.4 3653.67 250.5 2,455.8 -1,197.8 -82.1 D81038 Kimbolton Medical Practice 354.4 6965.14 477.6 5,168.3 -1,796.8 -123.2 - St Neots Parish 2763.68 44523.22 3053.0 40,303.7 -4,219.6 -289.3 15 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Out of Hospital Urgent care provision St Neots Walk in Centre The WIC service is open 8am-9am and 6pm-8pm weekdays and 9am-4pm Saturday and Sunday. It is closed Christmas Day and Easter Sunday and sees approximately 820 patients per month. The WIC service is run alongside the general practice in the same building. It not only uses the same premises, staff and rooms but is run through a shared information system. The WIC service provides consultation slots which are 15 minutes in duration. Extended Access delivered by West Cambs GP Federation from Buckden Hub Extended Access services are delivered by West Cambs GP Federation across 4 hub sites. Patients can attend any hub, but specifically for St Neots, services are provided from Buckden Surgery on - . Monday 18:30 – 20:30 . Wednesday 18:30 – 20:30 . Saturday 08:30 – 12.30 Extended Hours Extended Hours services are offered under the Primary Care Network DES in line with the requirement. 16 St Neots Civil Parish Capacity Analysis 2019 Procurement options appraisal Option 1 – do nothing Pros Cons .