CEDER Catch, Effort and Discard Estimation in Real-time Tryggvi Hjörvar Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science University of Iceland 2012 CEDER Catch, Effort and Discard Estimation in Real-time Tryggvi Hjörvar 60 ECTS thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of a Magister Scientiarum degree in Industrial Engineering Advisors Birgir Hrafnkelsson Guðrún Pétursdóttir Ólafur Pétur Pálsson Faculty Representative Steinn Guðmundsson Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Reykjavik, October 2012 CEDER - Catch, Effort and Discard Estimation in Real-time CEDER 60 ECTS thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of a Magister Scientiarum degree in Industrial Engineering Copyright © 2012 Tryggvi Hjörvar All rights reserved Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland Hjarðarhaga 2-6 107, Reykjavik Iceland Telephone: 525 4000 Bibliographic information: Tryggvi Hjörvar, 2012, CEDER - Catch, Effort and Discard Estimation in Real-time, Master’s thesis, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Iceland, pp. 112. Printing: Háskólaprent, Fálkagata 2, 107 Reykjavík Reykjavik, Iceland, October 2012 Abstract The CEDER project aims to provide more accurate and timely information on catches, effort, landings, discards, quota and TAC (Total Allowed Catch) uptake and to assess the benefits of this information for fisheries management. This thesis is part of a CEDER work-package dedicated to the development of classification algorithms and statistical models to identify and categorise vessel activity through analysis of positional data, estimate the fishing effort and predict the vessel catch. The data used was collected from the Atlantic Pelagic Redfish fishery on the Reykjanes- ridge. A linear discriminant classifier on vessel speed is capable of identifying high-speed cruising activity, but no measure or alternative classifier is found to adequately differentiate between fishing and non-fishing activity at lower speeds based on the data provided. A case is made for using higher resolution data with a maximum of 15 minutes between position reports. An estimate of fishing effort is derived from the classifier results and used in a multivariate linear regression model to predict the expected catch for individual vessels and trips within any given year. The model is found to return reasonable predictions for known years, but has a higher error rate for unfitted years. Using a simpler effort measure of days at sea with the same model is shown to give at least as good or better results than the more complicated effort estimate from positional data. A pilot-system is presented with features such as current fleet activity, total TAC uptake, alerts for suspect activity, and area fishing load. Útdráttur CEDER verkefnið miðar að því að þróa aðferðir til nákvæmari og hraðari miðlunar upplýsinga um afla, sókn, landanir, brottkast, kvóta og nýtingu hans og meta kosti þeirra við stjórnun og eftirlit fiskveiða. Þessi ritgerð er hluti af CEDER vinnupakka um þróun flokkunaralgríma og tölfræðilíkana til að greina og flokka aðgerðir skipa út frá staðsetningargögnum, meta sókn og spá fyrir um afla. Gögnunum sem notuð eru var safnað á karfaveiðum á Reykjaneshrygg. Flokkunaralgrím sem byggir á línulegum aðskilnaði eftir hraða skips getur borið kennsl á stím á mikilli ferð, en engin mælistærð eða aðrir flokkarar fundust sem gátu aðskilið fullnægjandi milli fiskveiði og annarra aðgerða á minni ferð, byggt á gögnunum sem lögð eru til grundvallar. Færð eru rök fyrir að nota gögn með hærri upplausn, eða í mesta lagi 15 mínútna milli staðsetninga. Mat á sókn er byggt á niðurstöðum flokkunaralgrímsins og notað í margvítt línulegt aðhvarfslíkan til að spá fyrir um væntan afla fyrir ákveðin skip og veiðiferðir innan hvers árs. Líkanið skilar ásættanlegri spá fyrir þekkt ár, en er ónákvæmara fyrir ómátuð ár. Sýnt er fram á að notkun einfaldari mælinga á dögum til sjós með sama líkani skilar að minnsta kosti jafn góðri eða betri spá en flóknara mat á sókn út frá staðsetningargögnum. Sýnd er frumgerð að hugbúnaðarkerfi með möguleikum á að sýna aðgerðir flotans, nýtingu heildarkvóta, svæðisbundið veiðiálag og gefa viðvaranir um grunsamlega hegðun. Keywords Fishing, fisheries management, fisheries monitoring, remote monitoring, redfish, fishing effort, catch, vessel monitoring system, classification, multivariate regression models Efnisorð Fiskveiðar, fiskveiðistjórnun, fiskveiðieftirlit, fjareftirlit, karfi, sókn, afli, flokkun, margvíð aðhvarfslíkön Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Who will watch the watchmen? – Juvenal, "Satires" Preface This thesis is written as part of an M.Sc. degree program in industrial engineering at the University of Iceland with professor Páll Jensson, lic. techn., professor Ólafur Pétur Pálsson, Ph.D. and assistant professor Birgir Hrafnkelsson, Ph.D. acting as thesis advisors, and docent Dr. Guðrún Pétursdóttir as project leader. The study was undertaken in collaboration with the University of Iceland Institute for Sustainability Studies (Stofnun Sæmundar fróða) and the Icelandic Directorate of Fisheries (Fiskistofa). It forms an integrated part of the CEDER1 project, funded by the European Union's Sixth Framework Programme: Policy-Oriented Research. Scripts, source code and printouts referenced in the thesis are available by request to the author. Disclaimer This study has been carried out with financial support from the Commission of the European Communities, specific RTD programme “Specific Support to Policies, sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources”. It does not necessarily reflect its views and in no way anticipates the Commission’s future policy in this area. 1 Catch, Effort and Discard Monitoring in Real Time, https://ceder.jrc.ec.europa.eu/. [Last retrieved Sept 2012] Contents List of figures...................................................................................................................................xiv List of tables.....................................................................................................................................xvi Glossary...........................................................................................................................................xvii Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................................xix Chapter 1 - Introduction....................................................................................................................1 1.1 Fishing for sustainability...........................................................................................................1 1.2 The Tragedy of the Commons...................................................................................................1 1.3 Quota systems............................................................................................................................1 1.4 The role of monitoring...............................................................................................................2 1.5 CEDER......................................................................................................................................2 1.6 The Atlantic Pelagic (Oceanic) Redfish....................................................................................3 1.7 NEAFC and quotas....................................................................................................................4 1.8 The Pirates.................................................................................................................................5 1.9 Research Objectives...................................................................................................................7 1.10 Structure of the thesis..............................................................................................................7 Chapter 2 - Literature review...........................................................................................................9 2.1 Prior work..................................................................................................................................9 2.2 Work of other CEDER partners.................................................................................................9 Chapter 3 - The data........................................................................................................................11 3.1 Collection.................................................................................................................................11 3.1.1 VMS.................................................................................................................................11 3.1.2 Catch logbooks.................................................................................................................12 3.1.3 Official catch landing reports...........................................................................................12 3.2 Preprocessing...........................................................................................................................12 3.2.1 Erroneous position reports...............................................................................................13 3.3 Identifying trips........................................................................................................................13