Sport WaleS adviSory Group ACTING TODAY FOR AN ACTIVE TOMORROW TRENDS WHICH WILL TRANSFORM SPORT IN WALES CONTENTS Foreword 3 executive Summary 4 introduction 8 Generating views of the future 8 Different types of trends 9 Scenarios of the future 9 The structure of the report 10 Consumer trends affecting the future of sporting participation in Wales 11 Changing Society 12 A Shifting Economic and Political Landscape 18 Changing Identities 23 Switched on Society 28 The Digital Revolution 31 Healthier Lives 35 Engaging Consumers in the 21st century 38 Scenarios for future sports participation in Wales 43 Scenarios designed to differentiate a range of future options 43 The critical uncertainties: cultural mindset with regards to sport and the degree to which policy makers directly seek to empower or inhibit sport 43 Assessing the four scenarios 51 appendices 53 2 FOREWORD he world around us is changing and frst, worked with trends forecasters to tit will continue to do so. That is predict the future of Wales and how one of the only things about our future sport can remain relevant, available and world of which we can be sure. attractive to all. We are all aware that for our businesses This report is not just relevant to the and indeed our lives to keep pace with the sports sector. Alongside our sports world of today and prepare for the world of colleagues we have worked with tomorrow we have to make changes. The partners from the world of health, challenge is deciding what changes we education and the third sector to make need to make. In order to do this we have this report relevant to the whole of to be aware of what is happening now Wales, with the potential to impact on and be as sure as we can be that we invest the health and wealth of our nation. strategically and sensibly in our futures. This report is rich in information and For example, in our own lives, how do we outlines seven main themes that will decide what sort of Smart TV to buy when impact on the Welsh population over competing manufacturers are releasing the next 15 years. Importantly it also completely different operating systems? gives clear guidance on the implications This is the sort of diffcult decision you are and trends for the future of sport that faced with whether you are a supplier or all of us must heed. a consumer and one that could see the rise or fall of your fnancial future. I would like to thank our partners in this report for their support, along with Change is a risky and expensive business, so one way to mitigate risk is to make the experts who gave their time to sure we all have access to the latest be interviewed. Thank you also to the thinking on consumer insights and trends. members of the Sport Wales Advisory It is important to use this information in Group who have given up an incredible conjunction with the best political, social, amount of their time to develop and demographic and fnancial projections. deliver this report. This is not uncommon to the business sector and it is the way that many The Sport Wales Advisory Group now products and services are often developed. calls on the sport sector to work with Like it or not, in today’s world we have to health, education, political and business think of sport as a product and a service stakeholders to establish a working if we are to attract more Welsh citiZens to group to take the recommendations of participate in sport and physical activity. this report forward. So, the Sport Wales Advisory Group, an independent group of volunteer experts from a range of sectors, have in a UK- Helen Humphrey Chair Sport Wales Advisory Group aCknoW ledGementS Sport Wales would like to thank for following sponsors for their help and support in the production of this report. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY uture Foundation has embarked on same trends mean that engaging people Fan extensive research programme in sport consistently throughout their in the development of this report. The lives will be a challenging task, but our frst stages comprised a knowledge research indicates that dropping out of review of existing evidence, which drew certain sports will not be as irreversible upon available public research and the as it once was. broader impact of Future Foundation’s trends, creating the building blocks for resources should be the later stages of the project. As part of concentrated on reducing this work, bespoke qualitative research the impact of social was conducted in different regions of Wales amongst participants who took inequality on sport part in physical activity with varying All key indicators suggest we will see frequency and this was supplemented steady economic improvement in Wales by a range of expert interviews from over the short to medium term. The people with different perspectives on average consumer will have more money the challenges and opportunities that in their pocket, and the sports sector is sport in Wales faces. Such research was entitled to believe that it can compete used to guide a detailed trends analysis aggressively for a share of that extra that, in conjuncture with stakeholders, spend. At the same time, there will be highlighted the key future trends which growing social inequality and therefore will have the greatest impact on the great care and investment will have to future of sporting activities. The outputs be directed towards the more vulnerable from all these core stages of research segments of Welsh society if they are were drawn together in numerous future not to become increasingly marginalised scenario development exercises, in order when it comes to sport and exercise. At to develop four distinct scenarios of the a time when public spending is being potential future for sport in Wales. curtailed and people are more sceptical A snapshot of our fndings are outlined about welfare spending, ensuring that below. funding is channelled towards those least well off will continue to be a tHe key tHemeS tHat priority for policy makers. Will SHape tHe Future understanding shifting online oF Sport iN WaleS and offine identities will be demographic forces will crucial for sports providers create ever more fexible, The increasingly shareable nature of less linear lives consumers’ lives through social media, the rise of celebrity culture and a The shifting demographic landscape heavy media spotlight all mean that of Wales towards an ageing but the defnition of personal identity also ageless society will have a is changing. Increasing numbers of profound effect on the makeup of consumers take great care of how they the Welsh population and, perhaps look and the “life story” that their social more signifcantly, on how they media output tells about who they are. view themselves and their lives. Offine identities remain important; Sport and exercise will, increasingly, hyper local role models and events have to operate within a framework will be crucial in ensuring continued where age has less of an impact on sporting inspiration. Societal confdence peoples mindsets and many of the old in sport will continue to vary and assumptions about who wants to do adapting services to generate a sense of particular sports at particular stages of inclusion for all will be key to long term their life will be less and less true. The participation. 4 more demanding and Sports providers will need time poor consumers will to respond to the health necessitate enhanced levels of demands of an ever more commercial competitiveness informed, autonomous and from sport providers self-regulated consumer The typical consumer of today already Galvanised by the Digital Revolution feels under signifcant time pressure and historic levels of government and all the signs suggest that this intervention, many Welsh consumers are will continue to be the case. Sports becoming better informed, and more participation will have to fght for actively engaged, in their personal health its place on our daily to-do list, for management. While people are adopting example, by bringing sport to where more progressive mindsets regarding their the people are, rather than forcing health, consumers will also continue to them to seek it out, or by capitalising seek quick-fx and not medically approved on consumers’ increasing desire to methods to achieve their goals. Looking escape from their hectic lifestyles. further ahead, rising health costs will Sports provision should be viewed as create a strong argument for greater existing within the commercial market, early intervention through increased not independent of it. Generating this engagement with sporting activities. commercial mindset among sports Adopting a mixed approach that utilises providers will be paramount to meeting a government led educational strategy, the challenges of the modern consumer while also stimulating more responsibility landscape. on an individual level will prove most successful in achieving long-term changes unlocking the full potential to people’s attitude towards health. of the digital and data revolution will be engaging consumers in the fundamental in transforming 21st century will bring fresh how people engage with sport challenges Engagement with technology, through The typical consumer of 2014 is hard smartphones and tablets, and their to please. They increasingly recognise associated applications, is already a that it is they who have all the power mainstream characteristic of Welsh and have become more and more society. The rise of the Networked demanding to those providing the Society will increasingly change how products and services they buy. The people co-ordinate and take part in future will be more of the same, as sporting activities. At the same time, the technology and increasingly eager- use of quantifed apps and devices will to-please providers combine to give prove crucial in keeping people engaged consumers more and more power to with sport, while also generating make risk-free and ever more optimised a wealth of actionable insights on decisions.