STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL 2020-2021 The Year of the Vaccine? Internal and External Challenges to National Security Itai Brun and Anat Kurz, Editors Strategic Survey for Israel 2020-2021 Itai Brun and Anat Kurz, Editors הערכה אסטרטגית לישראל 2021-2020 איתי ברון וענת קורץ, עורכים The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is to strengthen the national security of the State of Israel and help secure its future as a Jewish, democratic state. INSS (a public benefit company), ranked as the leading think tank in Israel and as one of the fifty leading institutes in the world dealing with defense and national security, is an independent non-partisan institute that deals with the central strategic issues on Israel’s national security agenda. The INSS research team comprises experts from the academic, military, and government worlds. The Institute aims to inform and influence decisions makers at the highest level in Israel and the greater public. Through its involvement in the public debate and its policy-oriented research, INSS strives to identify policy opportunities for Israel and propose innovate solutions to current security challenges. Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) © INSS, January 2021 40 Haim Levanon Street All rights reserved. POB 39950 ISBN: 978-965-92858-1-5 Tel Aviv 6997556 Israel Associate Editors: Omer Weichselbaum and Noam Ran Tel. +972-3-640-0400 Editor, English version: Judith Rosen Fax +972-3-744-7590 Graphic Design: Igal Talianski (INSS), Michal Semo- E mail: [email protected] Kovetz (TAU Graphic Design Studio), and Nitsan Lear www.inss.org.il Printing: Digiprint Zahav Ltd., Tel Aviv Contents 2021 Strategic Overview: Vaccines and Vacillations Itai Brun and Anat Kurz ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2 Scale of Threats and Opportunities ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chapter 1: The International System: Recovery from COVID-19 amidst Great Power Competition Assaf Orion, Shahar Eilam, Tomer Fadlon, and Rotem Oreg ..............................................................................................................................................................................14 Chapter 2: The Israeli System: The Challenge of an Ongoing Crisis to National Security Foundations Meir Elran, Shmuel Even, Carmit Padan, Moshe Bar Siman Tov, Ephraim Lavie, Pnina Sharvit Baruch, and Tomer Fadlon ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................20 More on the Agenda: The World after COVID-19 / Itai Brun ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Chapter 3: The Regional System: A Decade since the Upheaval, and Expanding Normalization Sarah Feuer, Itai Brun, Oded Eran, Yoram Schweitzer, Yoel Guzansky, Ofir Winter, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Remi Daniel, and Ari Heistein ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................29 More on the Agenda: The Climate Challenge and National Security / Shira Efron............................................................................................................. 36 Chapter 4: Iran: At a Low Point, but Still the Primary Threat to Israel’s Security Sima Shine and Raz Zimmt...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................37 Chapter 5: The Northern Arena: Proactivity in Order to Weaken the Iranian-Shiite Axis Udi Dekel, Carmit Valensi, and Orna Mizrahi .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................43 Chapter 6: The Palestinian Arena: Preserving the Status Quo or Seeking Change? Udi Dekel and Noa Shusterman ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................50 More on the Agenda: Technology and National Security / Liran Antebi ................................................................................................................................................. 58 Chapter 7: The Operational Environment: Possible Escalation to an Unwanted War Itai Brun and Gal Perl Finkel ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................59 More on the Agenda: 2021: A Turning Point for Fake News? / Inbal Orpaz .................................................................................................................................... 64 More on the Agenda: Strategic Trends in the Cyber Realm / David Siman-Tov ........................................................................................................................66 National Security Index: Public Opinion, 2020-2021 Zipi Israeli and Ruth Pines .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................67 Conclusion and Policy Recommendations for 2021 Amos Yadlin ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................72 2021 Strategic Overview: Vaccines and Vacillations Itai Brun and Anat Kurz Photos: The White House Flickr, Shutterstock, Unsplash, Israel Defense Forces Flickr Snapshot Recommendations Great Power competition, with the pandemic in Prioritize attention to internal crisis, without the background • Further normalization in the neglecting external challenges • Coordinate with Middle East • Iran, at a low point, remains the the Biden administration, particularly on Iran • primary threat • A weakened Palestinian system Further normalization • Prepare for escalation looks to Biden • Unwanted escalation possible in in the north and in Gaza • Share expectations the north and south • Internal crisis challenges with the public on what the next war will demand Israel’s democratic foundations Strategic Survey for Israel 2020-2021 summarizes a year unusual in the nature of its complexity, shaped primarily by the COVID-19 crisis and the end of Donald Trump’s term as United States president. These two factors weakened the powers hostile to Israel and led them to focus on domestic affairs; concern about possible responses by President Trump in an election year and hope for the end of his presidency thus reduced the risk of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East. Consequently, Israel enjoyed relative calm on its borders over the course of 2020; operated in pinpoint operations in several arenas, in a way that thus far has not led to escalation; and took advantage of the singular characteristics of this period to advance normalization with a number of countries in the Middle East. This latter development both reflects and underscores a decline in the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the regional and international agenda. Some of these developments, which clearly have a positive impact on Israel’s national security, will continue in 2021. However, at the same time, Israel is grappling with a multidimensional crisis that threatens its economic and political stability, societal cohesion, liberal democratic values, and fabric of civilian life. This crisis did not begin with COVID-19, but the pandemic deepened existing economic, social, and governmental weaknesses and created new infirmities. While there is disagreement in Israel regarding the intensity of the crisis, it is clear that it has implications for national security, and highlights the need to adopt a broader framework in any discussion of national security 2 STRATEGIC SURVEY FOR ISRAEL 2020-2021 issues. More specifically, at issue is not only the important connection between the domestic situation and Israel’s resilience in