CLIMATE Risk and Vulnerability A HANDBOOK FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA S E C O N O N D E D I T I 2nd Edition Lead Authors: Claire L Davis-Reddy and Katharine Vincent CLIMATE Risk and Vulnerability A HANDBOOK FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA Second Edition Citation: Davis-Reddy, C.L. and Vincent, K. 2017: Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa (2nd Ed), CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa. For correspondence about this handbook, please email Claire Davis-Reddy: [email protected] © CSIR 2017. All rights to the intellectual property and/or contents of this document remain vested in the CSIR. This document is issued for the sole purpose for which it is supplied. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the express written permission of the CSIR. It may also not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover than that in which it is published. ISBN 978-0-620-76522-0 (electronic version) Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The project is funded by USAID with the support of the This work was [partially] carried out under the Future Department of Science and Technology (DST), South Climate for Africa UMFULA project with financial support Africa. The authors would like to acknowledge the from the UK Natural Environment Research Council Applied Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science (NERC), grant refs NE/M020010/1 and NE/M02007X/1, (ACCESS), the Southern African Science Service Centre and the UK Government’s Department for International for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Use (SASSCAL), Development (DFID). and the Future Climate for Africa UMFULA (Uncertainty Reduction in Models for Understanding Development Pictures courtesy of Timm Hoffman, Katharine Vincent, Applications consortium) project for supporting the Claire Davis, Ute Schmiedel, Francois Engelbrecht, research presented in the handbook. The authors would Simon Bundy, Emma Archer, James Irlam and Katinka like to thank the reviewers for their valuable comments. Lund Waagsaether. ii | Second Edition Foreword It is clear that global warming and climate change may adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, no longer be ignored. The climate of southern Africa regional climate change strategies, climate change has undergone significant warming. The impact of this adaptation and disaster risk reduction, climate financing, warming world now touches every facet of regional social sustainability and corporate governance. Key sectors and economic progress. The vulnerability of southern are selected to illustrate best practices in assessing African societies and ecosystems is critical. Future vulnerability – agriculture and livestock, commercial sustainable development is contingent on the capacity forestry, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity, water to adapt to the impacts of climate change. The second resources, the coastal zone, settlements, human health, edition of the Handbook for Southern Africa on Climate energy and air quality. Risk and Vulnerability follows on the entry into force of the Paris Climate Change Agreement of 2015. The This handbook serves as an important guide for climate handbook launches a series of re-definitions, concepts and development practitioners, students and policy- and programmes for addressing climate change. makers. The handbook is presented in three parts and guides the reader through a simplified understanding of climate David Lesolle risks, vulnerability to climate change and actions to Department of Environmental Science, cope with the impact of climate change by connecting University of Botswana Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Purpose of the handbook 2 Progress since the first edition 2 Scope and organisation of the second edition of the handbook 4 PART I: UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE RISKS OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA CHAPTER 1: Observed trends in climate over southern Africa 6 1.1. Introduction 6 1.2. Overview of the climate of southern Africa 7 1.3. Analysis of observed trends in climate over southern Africa 10 1.3.1. Land-surface temperature 10 1.3.2. Sea-surface temperature 14 1.3.3. Observed changes in relative sea-level rise 15 1.3.4. Rainfall 16 1.3.5. Extreme events 19 CHAPTER 2: Projected climate change futures for southern Africa 20 2.1. Introduction 20 2.2. Determining future climate 22 2.3. Determining regional climate change 23 2.4. Regional climate projections 24 2.4.1. Comparisons between GCMs, statistically and dynamically downscaled projections for different RCPs 24 2.4.2. Projected changes in climate extremes 27 2.5. Key messages 28 CHAPTER 3: Socio-economic impacts of extreme weather events in southern Africa 30 3.1. Introduction 30 3.2. Impact of climate-related disasters in SADC 37 3.3. Impacts of changes in climate extremes 46 PART II: UNDERSTANDING THE VULNERABILITY OF SOUTHERN AFRICA TO CLIMATE CHANGE CHAPTER 4: Assessing vulnerability to climate change 48 4.1. Introduction 48 4.2. Understanding how exposure and vulnerability translate into climate-related risks and impacts 48 4.3. Determining the levels of risk from climate change 50 4.3.1. Common approaches to vulnerability assessments 50 4.3.2. Conducting vulnerability assessments 51 CHAPTER 5: Agriculture and livestock 54 5.1. Introduction 54 5.2. Key drivers and processes of change within the sector 56 5.2.1. Demand for food 56 5.2.2. Environmental factors 57 5.2.3. External factors 59 5.3. Vulnerability of sector to climate change 60 5.3.1. Specific vulnerable sectors 60 5.4. Response measures 62 iv | Second Edition TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) CHAPTER 6: Commercial forestry 64 6.1. Introduction 64 6.1.1. Indigenous forests in the SADC region 64 6.1.2. Plantation forests in the SADC region 65 6.1.3. Economic, social and environmental functions 66 6.2. Key drivers and processes of change within the sector 67 6.3. Vulnerability of sector to climate change 68 6.4. Response measures 68 6.4.1. Adaptation 69 6.4.2. Mitigation 70 6.4.3. Policy 70 CHAPTER 7: Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity 72 7.1. Introduction 72 7.2. Non-climatic drivers of ecosystem change 76 7.2.1. Land-use change, habitat loss and fragmentation 76 7.2.2. Invasive alien species 76 7.3. Vulnerability to climate change 77 7.4. Response measures 79 7.4.1. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) 79 7.4.2. Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) 81 CHAPTER 8: Water resources 82 8.1. Introduction 82 8.2. Key drivers and processes of change within the water resources sector 83 8.2.1. Water demand 83 8.2.2. Land-use change 85 8.3. Vulnerability of the water resources sector to climate change 85 8.3.1. Water availability 86 8.3.2. Water quality 86 8.4. Response measures 86 CHAPTER 9: Coastal zone 91 9.1. Introduction 91 9.2. Vulnerability to climate change 92 9.2.1. Changes in storm tracks, frequencies and intensities. 93 9.2.2. Coastal ocean acidification 96 9.3. Adaptation response measures 97 CHAPTER 10: Human settlements 100 10.1. Introduction 100 10.2. Key drivers and processes of vulnerability and risks within settlements 101 10.2.1. Urbanisation 102 10.2.2. Informality and inequality 104 10.3. Potential climate risks and their consequences for settlements 104 10.4. Response measures and conclusion 110 CHAPTER 11: Human health 111 11.1. Climate and health linkages 111 11.2. Key drivers and processes of change within the sector 116 11.3. Health sector role in mitigation 117 11.4. Response measures 118 Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | v TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) CHAPTER 12: Energy and air quality 122 12.1. Introduction 122 12.1.1. Overview of energy in southern Africa 123 12.2. Key drivers and processes of change within the sector 126 12.2.1. Energy 126 12.2.2. Ambient air quality 127 12.2.3. Indoor air pollution 128 12.3. Vulnerability of sector to climate change 128 12.3.1. Energy 128 12.3.2. Air quality 129 12.4. Responses 129 PART III: RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE CHAPTER 13: Regional climate change strategies and initiatives 133 13.1. Introduction 133 13.2. SADC Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 135 13.3. SADC Regional Green Economy Strategy and Action Plan for Sustainable Development 135 13.4. SADC STI Implementation Framework to Support Climate Change Response (SADC/STI-IFCCR 2020) 136 CHAPTER 14: Adaptation and mitigation: Synergies and trade-offs 138 14.1. Introduction 138 14.2. Linking adaptation and mitigation 139 14.3. Responses to linking mitigation and adaptation 144 CHAPTER 15: Building on the links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction 148 15.1. Introduction 148 15.2. Links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction 149 15.3. Global commitments to addressing climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction 149 15.3.1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 149 15.3.2. Sendai Framework 150 15.3.3. Sustainable Development Goals 150 15.4. Bringing together climate change adaptation through a risk management approach 150 15.5. Climate Smart Disaster Risk Management 152 CHAPTER 16: Climate finance and financing adaptation projects 154 16.1. Introduction 154 16.2. Overview of adaptation finance sources 154 16.3. Availability of adaptation finance 156 16.4. Adaptation finance opportunities 158 16.4.1. Green Climate Fund 158 16.4.2. Least Developed Countries Fund 158 16.4.3. Special Climate Change Fund 159 16.4.4. GEF Trust Fund: Climate change focal area 160 16.4.5.