c07.indd 62 27-05-2013 08:17:40 Profi ting from Hedge Funds ffirs.indd i 29-05-2013 08:16:30 ffirs.indd ii 29-05-2013 08:16:30 Profi ting from Hedge Funds Winning Strategies for the Little Guy John Konnayil Vincent ffirs.indd iii 29-05-2013 08:16:30 Cover Design: Michael Rutkowski Cover Photography: ©iStockphoto.com/urbancow Copyright © 2013 by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. 1 Fusionopolis Walk, #07-01, Solaris South Tower, Singapore 138628 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as expressly permitted by law, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate photocopy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center. Requests for permission should be addressed to the Publisher, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd., 1 Fusionopolis Walk, #07-01, Solaris South Tower, Singapore 138628, tel: 65–6643–8000, fax: 65–6643–8008, e-mail: [email protected]. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best eff orts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifi cally disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fi tness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any damages arising herefrom. Other Wiley Editorial Offi ces John Wiley & Sons, 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA John Wiley & Sons, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, P019 8SQ, United Kingdom John Wiley & Sons (Canada) Ltd., 5353 Dundas Street West, Suite 400, Toronto, Ontario, M9B 6HB, Canada John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd., 42 McDougall Street, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia Wiley-VCH, Boschstrasse 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany ISBN 978-1-118-46520-2 (Cloth) ISBN 978-1-118-46519-6 (ePDF) ISBN 978-1-118-46517-2 (ePub) Typeset in 11.5/14 pt. Bembo Std by MPS Limited, Chennai, India. Printed in Singapore by Ho Printing Pte. Ltd. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ffirs.indd iv 29-05-2013 08:16:30 To my loving parents, K. J. Vincent and Annies Vincent, for their inspiration and guidance ffirs.indd v 29-05-2013 08:16:30 ffirs.indd vi 29-05-2013 08:16:30 Contents Acknowledgments xiii Preface xv Part One: Tracking 12 of the Greatest Money Managers 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 13Fs: A Window into Hedge Fund Activity 6 Filtering 13Fs for Relevant Activity 8 Raw 13F Filings from EDGAR 11 Notes 15 Chapter 2 Bill Ackman 17 Philosophy and Style 18 Marquee Trades 19 Portfolio Analysis 20 Notes 23 Chapter 3 Bruce Berkowitz 25 Philosophy and Style 26 Marquee Trades 27 vii ftoc.indd vii 27-05-2013 12:04:36 viii contents Portfolio Analysis 28 Notes 31 Chapter 4 Warren Buff ett 33 Philosophy and Style 34 Marquee Trades 35 Portfolio Analysis 37 Notes 39 Chapter 5 Ian Cumming and Joseph S. Steinberg 41 Philosophy and Style 42 Marquee Trades 43 Portfolio Analysis 44 Notes 46 Chapter 6 David Einhorn 47 Philosophy and Style 48 Marquee Trades 49 Portfolio Analysis 50 Notes 53 Chapter 7 Carl Icahn 55 Philosophy and Style 56 Marquee Trades 57 Portfolio Analysis 58 Notes 60 Chapter 8 Seth Klarman 63 Philosophy and Style 64 Marquee Trades 65 Portfolio Analysis 66 Notes 68 Chapter 9 John Paulson 69 Philosophy and Style 70 Marquee Trades 71 Portfolio Analysis 72 Notes 74 ftoc.indd viii 27-05-2013 12:04:37 Contents ix Chapter 10 Wilbur Ross 77 Philosophy and Style 78 Marquee Trades 78 Portfolio Analysis 79 Notes 82 Chapter 11 George Soros 85 Philosophy and Style 86 Marquee Trades 87 Portfolio Analysis 88 Notes 91 Chapter 12 David Swensen 93 Philosophy and Style 94 Marquee Trades 95 Portfolio Analysis 96 Notes 98 Chapter 13 Prem Watsa 101 Philosophy and Style 102 Marquee Trades 103 Portfolio Analysis 105 Notes 107 Part Two: Mechanical Approaches to Following the Masters 109 Chapter 14 Introduction 111 Manager Selection 113 Asset Allocation and Sentiment Capture 119 Risk Avoidance 121 Constructing Model Portfolios Mechanically: A Primer 122 Equal Allocation Largest Positions 123 Equal Allocation Largest New Positions 124 Weighted Allocation Largest Positions 124 Weighted Allocation Largest New Positions 126 ftoc.indd ix 27-05-2013 12:04:37 x contents 10-5-2 Allocation Largest Positions 128 10-5-2 Allocation Largest New Positions 131 Notes 133 Chapter 15 Equal Allocation Models 135 Portfolio Management and Performance Analysis 136 Bill Ackman: Largest Three 136 Warren Buff ett: Largest Three 138 David Einhorn: Largest Three 141 Combined Portfolio: Largest Positions 143 Combined Portfolio: Largest New Positions 145 Summary 146 Chapter 16 Weighted Allocation Models 149 Portfolio Management and Performance Analysis 150 Bill Ackman: Largest Three 151 Warren Buff ett: Largest Three 153 David Einhorn: Largest Three 155 Combined Portfolio: Largest Positions 157 Combined Portfolio: Largest New Positions 159 Summary 161 Chapter 17 Ten-Five-Two (10–5–2) Allocation Models 163 Portfolio Management and Performance Analysis 164 Bill Ackman 165 Warren Buff ett 168 David Einhorn 172 Summary 174 Chapter 18 Alternate Models 177 Portfolio Management and Performance Analysis 178 Bill Ackman: Exact Match Approximation Model 179 David Swensen: Asset Allocation Model 183 Sector Rotation Model 185 Simple Moving Average (SMA) Based Model 188 Summary 191 Note 192 ftoc.indd x 27-05-2013 12:04:37 Contents xi Part Three: Learning from the Masters 193 Chapter 19 Introduction 195 Beating the Managers at Their Own Game 198 Trading Alongside the Managers 203 Summary 206 Notes 207 Chapter 20 Fundamental Analysis 209 Margin of Safety 212 Basic Checklist 215 Business Understanding 216 Business Sector and the Company’s Standing 216 Management Integrity and Competency 217 Valuation 217 Emotional Stance 218 Quantitative Measures 219 Profi tability Indicators 219 Management Eff ectiveness 220 Liquidity Indicators 222 Valuation Indicators 224 Fair Value Estimates 227 Risk-Free Equivalent Fair Value 227 Fair Values Based on Earnings Growth 228 Fair Values Based on Benjamin Graham’s Teachings 230 Fair Values Using Present Discounted Value 234 Summary 240 Notes 241 Chapter 21 Types of Positions and Sizing 243 Diversifi cation and Hedging 244 Keeping Your Powder Dry 251 Building and Sizing Positions 253 Low Probability Positions 261 Summary 262 Notes 263 ftoc.indd xi 27-05-2013 12:04:37 xii contents Chapter 22 Conclusion 265 Ad Hoc Cloning Strategies 268 Mechanical Cloning Strategies 269 Implementing Manager Strategies 272 About the Author 273 Index 275 ftoc.indd xii 27-05-2013 12:04:37 Acknowledgments et me begin by acknowledging the Almighty for the blessings and wonderful provisions showered upon me throughout my L life. My career progression to wealth management has been no exception, for it has been a wonderful ride. Words fail to express the tremendous gratitude I owe Nick Wallwork at John Wiley, one of the most experienced English language fi nance/ business publishers in the world. My articles at Seeking Alpha, a premier website for actionable stock market opinion, analysis, and discus- sion caught Nick’s attention and he sowed the seeds for this book of strategies individual investors can implement to create alpha on their own. His insight and vision deserves credit for this maiden eff ort. On a related note, I salute Seeking Alpha for developing an ecosystem for investment researchers to network and develop ideas. I have also drawn inspiration from several individuals who success- fully migrated from other fi elds into investment management. Among them are Dr. Michael Burry, founder of Scion Capital, LLC hedge fund; Asif Suria, founder of Insider Trade Reports; Mazin Jadallah, founder of AlphaClone LLC; James Altucher, managing director of Formula Capital Hedge Fund; Mohnish Pabrai, founder of Pabrai Investment xiii fbetw.indd xiii 27-05-2013 10:33:19 xiv acknowledgments Fund; Francis Chou, president of Chou Associates Management, Inc.; and several contributors at Seeking Alpha. Their intrepid sense of going all out in fulfi lling their passion immensely helped my own transformation. I extend my sincere thanks to the hedge fund managers profi led herein for explaining their operating styles through the media over the years. That was my primary source of information for the profi les in this book. I recognize fully the eff orts of Gemma Rosey, development editor; Jules Yap, editorial executive; Stefan Skeen, senior production editor; Barbara Hanson, copy editor; and the entire Wiley team for their unwavering support throughout the development of this book. My partner in crime and beloved wife, Shara, has been the guiding and motivating force behind me, giving encouragement at times of dif- fi culty and setbacks. Her critical suggestions, patient understanding, and realistic expectations helped me to comprehend the bigger picture. Her passion and enthusiasm to follow a new path, along with her pleasant disposition, fascinates me. She put in a tremendous eff ort to edit the initial drafts of the manuscript. While we were writing this book, our two wonderful daughters Ann Gina Konnayil and Becka Jill Konnayil held up really well in a brand new environment, despite the fact that their parents were working with a very tight schedule. For that, they deserve our special mention and admiration. I am blessed with a lot of well-wishers, friends, and family mem- bers.