Long Term Planning Process West Midlands & Chilterns Route Study Advice and choices for funders August 2017 Contents August 2017 Network Rail – West Midlands & Chilterns Route Study 02 Foreword 03 Executive Summary 04 01: The long term planning process 11 02: The starting point 14 03: The capacity challenge - meeting demand 21 04: Improving connectivity 41 05: Strategy and choices for funders 50 06: Consultation and next steps 82 Foreword August 2017 Network Rail – West Midlands & Chilterns Route Study 03 We are delighted to present the West Midlands & Chilterns Route Common. This will be a catalyst for wide scale economic development ‘There is clear evidence that Study. It is an important milestone in the development of the region’s through new, fast journey opportunities and a large increase in transport infrastructure, and is the result of much collaborative capacity for passengers. high quality transport networks industry effort. It sets out a clear and compelling case to support the However, sustaining this growth and progress to meet forecast growth of rail in a way that will benefit passengers, communities and demand for the next 30 years, is not without significant challenges, are an important enabler of the economy. which will be addressed and explored further in this study. The increase economic growth’ Following the wide consultation of the Draft for Consultation, the in services into and across Birmingham city centre over the past two strategy has already been reflected in the competition to operate the decades has been delivered without any significant increase in the next West Midlands Franchise. Our continued work with Midlands capacity of the network itself. The travelling public will know that some Connect to support their aspirations, has led to the alignment of trains are crowded today, and will be even more so in the future unless strategies and priorities. Their strategy has endorsed the findings of we intervene; that journey times between the East and West Midlands the Route Study and provides detailed economic evidence to support do not compare favourably with similar cities and towns elsewhere in further investment in rail. This partnership approach has already the country; and that there are physical constraints that make it delivered funding to progress the development of the Midlands Rail difficult to add more trains on today’s network. Hub, a joint priority for Midlands Connect and the rail industry. On the The purpose of this Route Study is to provide an evidence base to Chilterns, the strategic case for connecting passengers on to Crossrail inform funders considering rail industry investment for the medium and high speed services at Old Oak Common has led to collaborative and long term. This means identifying ways in which the industry can work between the rail industry, DfT and HS2 Ltd to define the scale of meet forecast demand over the coming years, get ‘HS2-ready’ by economic benefits. 2026, and look ahead to 2043. This longer-term planning horizon Rail’s role in the region is vital, and increasingly so; every day, it takes means we can consider a broad range of options and identify a set of many thousands of people to work, education and leisure opportunities, choices for the next 10 years that we know would be fit for the future. carries freight and passengers that cross the country, and brings our Embedded within this strategy are the opportunities provided by the towns and cities, businesses and communities closer together. The Digital Railway programme, including advanced signalling and better success of the rail industry over the last 20 years, during which it has information for passengers. delivered greater capacity, performance and safety, at the same time The approach we take is to first make the best use we can of the as improved efficiency and value, is notable. Rail use has grown even infrastructure we have, before we consider enhancing the network. But faster in the West Midlands than in the country as a whole, with a we are confident that there is a coherent and compelling case to invest growing shift to commuting by train supported by the increasing in the growth of the network in the West Midlands and Chilterns, to frequency and reliability of services. On Chiltern routes, the long-term take the opportunity of a high speed, digital future and to support and franchise has been a vehicle for investment in more frequent and enable continued economic growth. better services. Investment in rail is about more than purely transporting greater numbers of people around the network. There is clear evidence that Jo Kaye Martin Frobisher high quality transport networks are an important enabler of economic growth. The recently-redeveloped Birmingham New Street station is a great example; a world-class gateway to the region, it has increased capacity for passengers and is driving forward the regeneration of the southern part of the city centre. On a wider scale, the arrival of High Speed 2 offers an exciting and transformational opportunity for the Managing Director, Route Managing Director, area, with new services and stations in Birmingham and at Old Oak System Operator London North Western Executive Summary August 2017 Network Rail – West Midlands & Chilterns Route Study 04 Meeting Demand The railway across the West Midlands and Chilterns area is vital to 3. Developing a longer term view towards 2043 the region, the markets and communities it serves. Those varied better services for passengers on the Chiltern route through markets include passengers travelling long distances for work or – the introduction of new rolling stock, electrification and ‘The number of passengers using the railway leisure, day-to-day commuting into Birmingham city centre and advanced signalling across the study area has increased substantially London Marylebone, freight to and from all corners of the country as over the past decade, and further growth is well as providing important connections between the Midland’s key – enabling additional trains and improved performance by urban centres. separating the flows of passenger and freight services at key forecast’ locations The West Midlands and Chilterns Route Study seeks to identify the capacity and capability that the railway needs to play its part in – improved provision of information and better train delivering economic growth by connecting people to jobs, and performance through roll out of advanced signalling across businesses to markets. the study area The number of passengers using the railway across the study area Following the publication of the Draft for Consultation the strategy has increased substantially over the past decade, and further has started to be implemented. The West Midlands franchise growth is forecast. Strategic options have been identified in order to Invitation to Tender recognised the requirement for a substantial meet this challenge, and set out as choices for funders. These increase in vehicle numbers to serve the West Midlands. Meanwhile, strategic options are in three clear categories: Midlands Connect secured £5m of new funding to develop a Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) for the Midlands Rail Hub. 1. Meeting passenger demand to 2024 At the south end of the route, the strategic option of delivering providing longer trains across the West Midlands network, and – additional capacity into London is being developed further and into London Marylebone on the Chiltern route consideration is being given as to how it could be integrated into the – upgrading passenger facilities at stations to safely manage new station at Old Oak Common. This station will sit at the heart of increasing passenger numbers regeneration in the Old Oak and Park Royal area, providing transport links to HS2, Crossrail and Great Western services. 2. Maximising the opportunities offered by the arrival of High Speed Two (HS2) The importance of delivering sufficient passenger capacity at our stations has also been recognised, with further development and providing 10 additional train services across the Midlands by – funding identified for priority stations at Birmingham Snow Hill and unlocking additional capacity in central Birmingham University. supporting additional passenger and freight services by – Going forward the rail industry will continue to work with funders providing additional capacity between Birmingham and the and wider stakeholders to deliver a railway that will continue to East Midlands support the growth of the economy across the West Midlands and – providing new passenger journey opportunities through links Chilterns areas. into Old Oak Common from the Chiltern route into HS2 and Crossrail – maximising the opportunities to interchange on to HS2 services Executive Summary August 2017 Network Rail – West Midlands & Chilterns Route Study 05 A growth story country. There is a number of existing important freight terminals in the study area, as well as proposals for new ones including at The railway of the West Midlands is at the heart of the national Cannock and Four Ashes. network and a key component of the Midlands Engine for Growth with the Midlands economy worth in excess of £200bn, and There are clear stakeholder ambitions across the study area to ambitious plans for growth. Every year nearly 50 million passengers accelerate forecast growth through targeted investment in make journeys by rail in the West Midlands, and demand is growing transformational transport projects. These stakeholders include faster than the national average, at over four per cent a year. Local Transport Authorities, Local Enterprise Partnerships and the emerging sub-national transport bodies. Today 38 per cent of passengers travelling into Birmingham at peak times choose to travel by rail; this is a dramatic increase from the 17 The Midlands Connect partnership has identified the role transport per cent who chose to travel by rail in 2001. Forecast demand shows can play in supporting the housing, jobs and economic growth continuing strong growth in passengers commuting in to identified by the Midlands Engine strategy.