Economic Performance and Social Conflicts in Chinese History Item Type text; Electronic Dissertation Authors Liu, Cong Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 26/09/2021 06:41:10 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/612424 Economic Performance and Social Conflicts in Chinese History by Cong Liu ||||||||||||| Copyright c Cong Liu 2016 A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the Department of Economics In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy In the Graduate College The University of Arizona 2016 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE As members of the Dissertation Committee, we certify that we have read the disser- tation prepared by Cong Liu, titled Economic Performance and Social Conflicts in Chinese History, and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation re- quirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Date: May 5, 2016 Price Fishback Date: May 5, 2016 Ashley Langer Date: May 5, 2016 Mo Xiao Date: May 5, 2016 Cihan Artun¸c Date: May 5, 2015 Carol Hua Shiue Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate's submission of the final copies of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereby certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement. Date: May 15, 2015 Dissertation Director: Price Fishback 2 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable without special permission, provided that an accurate acknowledgement of the source is made. Requests for per- mission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the head of the major department or the Dean of the Graduate College when in his or her judgment the proposed use of the material is in the interests of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from the author. SIGNED: Cong Liu 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author wishes to thank the members of her committee for their assistance and guidance. As my main advisor, Price Fishback read, criticized, and edited my research ideas, proposals, and drafts. His dedication to economic history, tolerance to different opinions, and optimism in human nature greatly influenced my own attitude to work and life. Mo Xiao provided invaluable suggestions and encouragement. With similar background and experience, she was also a role model and a close friend. Cihan Ar- tun¸cset an example of young economic historians. Ashley Langer always contributed inspiring ideas. I am also lucky enough to have Carol Shiue as my special committee member and provided critical and encouraging discussions. I benefit from comments received from seminar speakers in the University of Arizon- a, PhD students in London School of Economics and University of Colorado Boulder during my short visits there, and participants in multiple conferences and seminars, including the All-UC Frontier in Chinese History Conference, the Annual Cliometrics Conference in Ann Arbor, the 4th Asian Historical Economic Congress, the 2nd Bien- nial Conference of China Development Studies, the Annual Meetings of the Economic History Association, the 4th Quantitative History Symposium, The Chinese Economics Society Annual Conference in Chongqing, World Economic History Congress in Kyoto, and seminars in London School of Economics, the University of Arizona, and Univer- sity of Colorado Boulder. I especially thank suggestions and help from Ann Carlos, Wolfgang Keller, Peter Lindert, Debin Ma, James Markusen, and Se Yan. I am also grateful for various forms of support and advice from my colleagues during my study in the University of Arizona, especially Theresa Gutberlet, Taylor Jaworski, Jianjing Lin, and Xing Liu. The Economic History Association provided generous funding for my research. Jiahong Cai, Yurong Li, Jinlin Wei, Ying Xu and Jia Yuan helped digitize part of the data used in this dissertation. I am deeply grateful for my family for their understanding and support. Special thanks go to my husband Shiyu Bo, who is a companion for both work and life, for his patience and love. 4 DEDICATION To my grandfather Fu Liu (1925-2014), who first arouse my interest in Chinese history. 5 Contents Abstract 15 Introduction 17 1 Tax Reform, Protests, and the Incidence of Taxes in the Eighteenth Century 22 1.1 Introduction................................. 22 1.2 Background................................. 25 1.2.1 Tax Collection and Intermediaries in Qing China........ 25 1.2.2 The Tax Reform in 1720s..................... 26 1.2.3 Urban Protest............................ 28 1.3 Conceptual Framework........................... 29 1.3.1 Tax Collection............................ 31 1.3.2 The Tax Reform.......................... 32 1.3.3 Discussion.............................. 35 1.3.4 Tax Transfer under Market Forces................. 35 1.4 Data..................................... 37 1.4.1 Protests............................... 37 1.4.2 The Tax Reform.......................... 41 1.4.3 Proxies for the Group Size of Gentry Landlords......... 41 1.4.4 Control Variables.......................... 43 1.5 The Impact of Reform on Urban Protests................. 46 1.5.1 Empirical Strategy......................... 46 1.5.2 Results................................ 47 1.6 Tax Incidence................................ 47 1.6.1 Empirical Strategy......................... 47 1.6.2 Results................................ 50 1.7 Discussion.................................. 54 6 1.7.1 Endogeneity............................. 54 1.7.2 Eliminate Jiangsu Province.................... 58 1.7.3 Results using a Negative Binomial Regression.......... 58 1.7.4 Population Increase......................... 58 1.8 Conclusion.................................. 62 2 Commodity Price Shocks and Local Conflicts from 1902 to 1911 64 2.1 Introduction................................. 64 2.2 Background: Conflicts from 1902 to 1911................. 68 2.2.1 Protests: Conflicts Requesting Actions from Government.... 68 2.2.2 Revolts: Conflicts that Aimed to Overthrow the Government.. 70 2.2.3 Trade as a Source of Income Shock................ 71 2.3 Theoretical Framework........................... 73 2.3.1 Setup................................ 73 2.3.2 Case 1: An Ordinary Farmer.................... 74 2.3.3 Case 2: A Revolutionary...................... 75 2.4 Data..................................... 77 2.4.1 Conflicts............................... 77 2.4.2 Trade................................ 78 2.4.3 Soil Suitability........................... 79 2.4.4 Access to Trade........................... 80 2.4.5 Grain Prices............................. 80 2.5 Empirical Strategy............................. 82 2.6 Results.................................... 83 2.7 Conclusion.................................. 89 3 Political Groups and the Impact of Civil Wars on Local Economy in Early Twentieth-Century China 97 3.1 Introduction................................. 97 3.2 Background................................. 99 3.2.1 Warlords and the KMT...................... 101 3.2.2 The CCP.............................. 106 3.2.3 Fighting Areas........................... 107 3.2.4 Economic Factors.......................... 109 3.3 Data..................................... 110 3.3.1 Civil Wars.............................. 110 3.3.2 Trade Flows and Access to Trade................. 111 7 3.3.3 Rural Income............................ 112 3.4 Patterns of Civil Wars........................... 112 3.5 The Impact on Trade Flows........................ 121 3.5.1 Overall Effects........................... 121 3.5.2 Differentiated Effects........................ 122 3.5.3 Explanations............................ 124 3.6 Impact on Rural Wage and Land Values................. 129 3.7 Conclusion.................................. 133 4 The World War I Trade Shock and Its Impact on the Chinese Econo- my 137 4.1 Introduction................................. 137 4.2 Literature.................................. 139 4.3 Background................................. 140 4.3.1 China's International Trade.................... 140 4.3.2 The Impact of WWI on China's International Trade....... 141 4.3.3 WWI and the Chinese Economy: Narrative Evidence...... 148 4.4 A Conceptual Framework......................... 151 4.4.1 Setup................................ 151 4.4.2 Scenario 1: No Labor Migration from Rural to Urban Areas.. 153 4.4.3 Scenario 2: Allow Labor Migration from Rural to Urban Areas. 154 4.4.4 Predictions............................. 155 4.5 Data..................................... 155 4.5.1 Textile Firms............................ 155 4.5.2 Rural Wages and Land Values................... 157 4.5.3 Distance............................... 158 4.5.4 Trade Records............................ 160 4.6 The Impact on Textile Industry...................... 160 4.6.1 Evidence from Firm-level Information............... 161 4.6.2 Evidence from