Public Disclosure Authorized Building Urban Resilience MANAGING THE RISKS OF DISASTERS IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Public Disclosure Authorized Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho ©2012 The World Bank The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA May 2012 Disclaimer: This report is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessar- ily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or those of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgments on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accep- tance of such boundaries. Acknowledgements About Building Urban his report was prepared by a team led by Abhas Jha and com- Resilience in East Asia prised of Abigail Baca, Andre A. Bald, Arlan Rahman, Dzung THuy Nguyen, Fook Chuan Eng, Iwan Gunawan, Meskerem uilding Urban Resilience in East Asia is a World Bank program Brhane and Zuzana Svetlosakova. which aims to increase the resilience of cities to disasters and climate change impacts by using a risk-based approach in pub- Technical material used in this report was prepared by Abigail Baca, B lic investment decision-making process. The objective of the initia- Zuzana Svetlosakova and the consulting team of Royal Haskoning, tive is to demonstrate a scalable methodology and practical tools HKV consultants, Witteveen + Bos, URDI including Eveline Buter, for risk assessment which can be used for city-level investment deci- Gita Chandrika Napitupulu, Joost Lansen, Julian Syah, Jurjen Wage- sions. maker, Marco Hartman, Michael Van de Watering, Sawarendro, and Trinh Hoang Ngan. Working closely with the stakeholders involved in land-use planning and infrastructure development, Phase I of this program identifies The team would like to thank John Roome and Vijay Jagannathan the key challenges facing urban decision-makers in terms of risk for their support and guidance, and Trevor Dhu and Uwe Deichman from natural disasters and climate change, and offers a set of open for their constructive comments. source risk assessment tools that can be used by city-level institu- The team wishes to acknowledge the generous support from the tions, private investors, communities and planners of infrastructure Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) pro- services. Phase II of the program focuses on the exploration different vided through the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Infrastructure investment options, management plans and capacity building. for Growth Trust Fund (EAAIG) which enabled the technical work to Building Urban Resilience in East Asia is part of a broader effort of take place. the World Bank to incentivize governments to effectively use geo- Note to the Reader: Chapter 1 describes the standard risk assess- spatial data. The Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI) aims ment methodology and introduces the pilot cities work. Chapter 2 to reduce the impact of disasters by empowering decision-makers and Chapter 3 apply the methodology into practice for the case with better information and the tools to support their responsibili- studies in Can Tho, Vietnam, and Jakarta, Indonesia. Chapter 4 pres- ties. “InaSAFE,” (Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies) is ents innovative tools available to support resilient decision-making. one of those tools, developed through a partnership with the Indo- Chapter 5 draws out the key findings for the pilot studies, and offers nesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the Austra- general recommendations for concerned decision-makers who seek lia Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR), and the Global to integrate evidence and risk-based approaches into their invest- Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Labs team. ment planning and urban governance processes. Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho / iii Can Tho community members, Development Workshop France (2011) iv / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Foreword In the context of the demographic, urbanization and climactic trends, policy-makers in East Asia are facing many difficult decisions over medium and long term investments in public infrastructure and urban management. There are concrete ways to improve decision-making to reap the benefits of integrating risk-based approaches into urban governance and planning processes. This can help national and city level stakeholders make complex decisions in a smarter, forward-looking and more sustainable manner resulting in increased resilience. Cities that are better able to define and communicate their risks are better at prepar- ing for and managing the impacts of natural disasters in a changing climate. The Building Urban Resilience initiative encourages cities to adopt and invest in risk-based approaches and make better use of the technologies and tools available to manage disaster risks. This report is an example of the commitment of the World Bank and AusAID to support cities in the East Asia region to be better prepared for the development challenges of both today and tomorrow. John Roome, Director Sustainable Development East Asia and the Pacific The World Bank / v Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................. iii CHAPTER 4 About Building Urban Resilience in East Asia ........................ iii Tools for Resilient Decision-making ................................. 46 Foreword ............................................................................. vi Executive Summary .......................................................... ix CHAPTER 5 Findings and Recommendations ...................................... 48 CHAPTER 1 Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions 1 Annex 1: International Experience .................................. 51 Risk Assessment ................................................................... 1 Annex 2: Data Collection Guidelines ............................... 54 Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) .................................................. 10 References ......................................................................... 56 CHAPTER 2 List of Figures Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam .......................................... 15 Figure 1 Key elements of risk calculation ........................ 1 Urban Planning and Infrastructure Investment Needs ........... 19 Figure 2 Dynamic decision-making process ..................... 2 Risk Information for Can Tho’s Main Hazards ....................... 20 Figure 3 Detailed scheme of flood risk management ..... 3 Historical event scenario for 2007 flood Risk assessment design review for Bun Xang Lake ................ 23 Figure 4 in Jakarta with affected industrial site ............... 5 Conclusions ......................................................................... 26 Figure 5 Inundation potential from 1 meter sea level rise scenario for Can Tho ................................. 6 CHAPTER 3 Figure 6 Subsidence rates average for 2000 - 2010 Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia ......................................... 29 in Jakarta ......................................................... 7 Urban Planning and Infrastructure Investment Needs ........... 36 Figure 7 Land use exposure map for Ho Chi Minh City ... 7 Design Risk Assessment for Micro Drainage ......................... 38 Figure 8 Example flood damage function ....................... 8 Implementation of the risk assessment and cost-benefit Figure 9 Risk assessment calculation ............................... 8 analysis with stakeholders .................................................... 42 Figure 10 Scenario economic damage map for Conclusions ......................................................................... 43 Ho Chi Minh City .............................................. 9 Figure 11 Recent flooding in Can Tho ............................. 13 vi / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Table of Contents Figure 12 MoNRE 0.75 meter sea level rise inundation Table 8 Key stakeholders in National Indonesian map for Mekong region ................................... 15 Government ..................................................... 32 Figure 13 Community interview sessions in Can Tho ....... 16 Table 9 Summary of example micro drainage Figure 14 Can Tho stakeholders ....................................... 17 investments in Jakarta ...................................... 36 Figure 15 Proposed planning diagram for Lake Table 10 Expected consequences of investment Bun Xang and surrounding area ......................