N Department of e V e War Studies strategy paper s paper strategy Iran’s re-emergence on global energy markets: opportunities, challenges & implications Kalina K Damianova KAS Energy Security Fellow at EUCERS 2014-15 EUCERS advisory board Professor Dr Theo Farrell Chairman of the Board, Head Frederick Kempe President and CEO, Atlantic Council, of War Studies Department and Professor of War in Washington, D.C., USA the Modern World, King’s College London Ilya Kochevrin Executive Director of Gazprom Export Ltd Marco Arcelli Executive Vice President, Upstream Gas, Janusz Luks CEO Central Europe Energy Partners (CEEP), Enel, Rom Brussels/Warsaw Professor Dr Hüseyin Bagci Department Chair of Thierry de Montbrial Founder and President of the Institute International Relations, Middle East Technical Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), Paris University Inonu Bulvari, Ankara Chris Mottershead Vice-Principal (Research and Andrew Bartlett Managing Director, Bartlett Development), King’s College London Energy Advisers Hildegard Müller Chair of the Executive Board of the German Volker Beckers Chairman, Spenceram Limited Association of Energy and Water Industry (BDEW) and member of the Executive Committee Professor Dr Albert Bressand Professor in International Strategic Management in Energy, University Dr Pierre Noël Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah Senior Fellow for of Groningen Economic and Energy Security, IISS Asia Professor Dr Iulian Chifu Advisor to the Romanian Dr Ligia Noronha Director Resources, Regulation and Global President for Strategic Affairs, Security and Foreign Security, TERI, New Delhi Policy and President of the Center for Conflict Deepak Puri Chairman and Managing Director, Moser Baer Prevention and Early Warning, Bucharest India Ltd., Delhi Dr John Chipman Director of the International Institute Janusz Reiter Center for International Relations, Warsaw for Strategic Studies (IISS), London Professor Dr Karl Rose Senior Fellow Scenarios, World Professor Dr Dieter Helm University of Oxford Energy Council, Vienna/London Professor Dr Karl Kaiser Director of the Program on Professor Dr Burkhard Schwenker Chairman of the Transatlantic Relations of the Weatherhead Center Supervisory Board, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants for International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, GmbH, Hamburg Cambridge, USA Media Partners Designed with King’s College London brand approval by Calverts www.calverts.coop Published by The European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) was established in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London in October 2010. The research of EUCERS is focused on promoting an understanding of how our use of energy and resources affects International Relations, since energy security is not just a matter of economics, supply and technological change. In an era of globalization energy security is more than ever dependent on political conditions and strategies. Economic competition over energy resources, raw materials and water intensifies and an increasing number of questions and problems have to be solved using holistic approaches and wider national and international political frameworks. www.eucers.eu The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) is a political foundation, closely associated with the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU). KAS has more than 80 offices abroad and projects in over 120 countries. We cooperate with governmental institutions, political parties, civil society organisations and handpicked elites, building strong partnerships along the way. We focus on consolidating democracy, the unification of Europe and the strengthening of transatlantic relations, energy and security policy. The KAS Energy Security Fellowship Programme has supported young scholars in their research at European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) Kings College London since 2012. www.kas.de About the author Kalina K. Damianova is one of the KAS Fellows 2014/15 at EUCERS and conducted her research on Iran in the context of (re-) emerging energy superpowers. She holds a MA in International Peace and Security of King’s College London, focusing on the EU's energy security and the security of the Black Sea Region. Impressum © 2015 EUCERS. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts Carola Gegenbauer Operations Coordinator, may be reproduced or translated provided the source EUCERS is stated. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. The opinions expressed in this publication are the Senior Research Associates responsibility of the author(s). Dr Petra Dolata University of Calgary Androulla Kaminara European Commission Editorial Dr Tomas Maltby King’s College London Professor Dr Friedbert Pflüger Director, EUCERS Dr Maximilian Kuhn, Chief Editor Strategy Papers, Research Associates EUCERS Jan-Justus Andreas Dr Maximilian Kuhn Arash Duero, Research Associate, EUCERS Alexandra-Maria Dr Flavio Lira European Centre for Energy and Resource Bocse Philipp Nießen Security (EUCERS) Kalina Damianova Philipp Offenberg Department of War Studies, King's College London Arash Duero Marina Petroleka Moses Ekpolomo Dr Slawomir About EUCERS Lorena Guitierrez Raszewski Professor Dr Theo Farrell Head of Department, Department of War Studies, King’s College London, Lamya Harub Aura Sabadus Chair, EUCERS Advisory Board Sandu-Daniel Kopp Ka Ho Yu Professor Dr Friedbert Pflüger Executive Director, Maria Kottari Shwan Zulal EUCERS Dr Frank Umbach Research Director EUCERS Dr Adnan Vatansever Associate Director, EUCERS Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Professor Dr Friedbert Pflüger, Director of EUCERS, for giving me the unique opportunity to research, develop and present the Iranian case within the inspiring context of EUCERS 2014/2015 ''(Re-) Emerging Energy Superpowers''. I am entirely grateful to Dr Maximilian Kuhn, Chief Editor of EUCERS Strategy Papers, for his dedication, patience, enlightening guidance and encouragement during my fellowship at EUCERS. I deeply appreciate his strong support and valuable assistance, without which this study would not have been possible. I wish to thank the whole EUCERS' team, especially Arash Duero for having devoted time and attention to my work. My entire gratitude goes to Siamak Adibi and Neil Quilliam for their willingness to help me and for giving me the opportunity to learn from them. This study would have lacked newest data and expertise without the detailed and insightful interviews they gave me. This project would not have been possible without the Konrad Adenauer Foundation financial support. For allowing this interaction between people highly motivated to pursue and develop academic ideas, I am entirely grateful to KAS and Mr Hans-Hartwig Blomeier, Head of the KAS office Great Britain! Contents Tables Figures and Maps 06 Glossary 07 Foreword 09 Executive Summary 10 Introduction 11 Iran’s oil and gas sector 13 Oil sector 13 Natural gas sector 23 Conclusion 35 Pre and post revolutionary management of the Iranian energy sector 35 Pre 1979 revolution period 35 Post 1979 revolution context 39 Western perceptions of Iran 41 Conclusion 42 Evolution of Iran’s petroleum fiscal regime 42 Constitutional framework 42 Laws and regulations 43 Buy-Back Contracts (BBCs) 45 Iranian (Integrated) Petroleum Contracts (IPCs) 51 Conclusion 56 Iran’s re-integration into energy markets: implications 57 Iran’s return to the global oil stage: impact on oil producers and consumers 57 Iran’s potential place in the European Union's gas supply security 61 Conclusion 68 Bibliography 71 Tables, Figures and Maps 4 Tables, Figures and Maps Table.1. Iran's Oil Production Fig.1. OPEC share of crude oil Fig.12. Buy-Back Contacts 2013−August 2015 and reserves, 2014 expectations Fig.13. Iranian (Integrated) Fig.2. Iran petroleum and other Petroleum Contracts Table.2. Iran’s major oil fields liquids production and Mechanism data and present status consumption Fig 14. EU Member States' Table.3. Oil Refineries in Iran Fig.03. Monthly Iran crude oil different scale of gas supply production dependence on Russia Table.4. Iran's oil and other liquids production and Fig.04. Monthly Iranian eports Fig.15 Nabucco gas pipeline consumption for 2004-2014 of crude oil and condensate proposed route Table. 5. Iranian Gas Fields' Fig.05. Natural gas reserves of Fig.16. South Gas Corridor Production capacity and some of the key Iranian natural route expected competition years gas fields Map.1. Key oil fields, Table.6. Natural Gas Fig.6. Iran's natural gas facilities, and infrastructure Production and Consumption pipeline imports and exports (2004-2014) 2004-2013 Map.2. Iran’s major natural gas fields Table 7. Comparison between Fig.7. Natural gas prices, 2000- some basic characteristics of 2015 Map.3. Iranian IGAT the Iranian BBC and Iraqi TSC infrastructure Fig.8. Iran's Gross Production Table 8. Comparison between outlook (2201-2028) Map.4. Zone of Tombak the Main BBCs' shortcomings, Map.5. Iran LNG IOC's Expectations, and IPCs' Fig.9. Iran's Gas Demand Outlook potential terms Map 6. Major oil trade movements form suppliers' to Table 9. Iranian Oil Contracts Fig.10 Iran Gas supply and demand expectations consumers' regions Fig.11. Formal and informal Map 7. LNG terminals and links (dotted lines) that projects in Europe influence the NIOC Glossary 5 Glossary AIOC − Anglo-Iranian Oil Company FTZ − Free Trade Zones ANPP − Armenian Nuclear Power Plant GDP − Gross Domestic Product APOC − Anglo-Persian Oil Company GTL – Gas to Liquids Bbb/d – Billion barrels per day ICSID − The International Centre for