Weather and climate science and services in a changing world Research and Innovation Strategy | April 2020 | v.1 Contents Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................4 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................6 Weather and climate science and services in our changing world ..............................8 Our vision ...............................................................................................................................................12 Research and innovation themes ..............................................................................................14 Cross-cutting themes: an overview .........................................................................................16 Hazard to decision making ............................................................................................................18 Research to production ..................................................................................................................20 Producing, refining and delivering data ...................................................................................20 The path to high resolution ...........................................................................................................24 Producing and exploiting ensembles .......................................................................................28 Capturing environmental complexity ......................................................................................30 Seamless environmental prediction .........................................................................................32 Next generation modelling systems ........................................................................................36 Fusing simulation with data science ........................................................................................38 Cross-cutting themes......................................................................................................................40 People ......................................................................................................................................................41 Partnerships .........................................................................................................................................42 Practices .................................................................................................................................................44 2 3 Foreword Weather and climate science and This Met Office Research and sciences of machine learning and Here we describe the motivation for services have never been more Innovation Strategy brings together artificial intelligence to complement the Research & Innovation Strategy important. The risks from high- three strands: the new opportunities these simulation tools, to produce and introduce our response. Each impact weather events, and how enabled by new weather and climate the best possible forecast of the nine Research & Innovation they might change in our changing science; the future technologies information. Furthermore, we shall themes and the three cross-cutting climate, rank high in many national that will radically increase our ability push on from forecasting weather themes have more detailed plans and corporate risk registers. Better to compute forecasts, analyse the hazards to forecasting the impacts that will be circulated soon. forecasts, with longer lead times, data and serve information to our of these hazards so that decisions tailored to impacts all help to sponsors; and the processing and are made on the best evidence. This R&I strategy provides an exciting minimise the damage. visualisation of this information to glimpse into what might be possible, produce guidance. In this way this This is an ambitious agenda that with the focus and drive I see at the At the same time, technology is R&I Strategy provides our ambitions goes far beyond the traditional Met Office, it can become reality! changing at an ever-increasing pace: and priorities to support the central disciplines of weather and climate novel supercomputers promise Met Office strategic anchor, namely science and technology. We enormous power if harnessed our exceptional science, technology recognise that to be truly innovative effectively; public sector cloud- and operations. and to deliver on this ambitious based technology offers profoundly agenda, we shall need to forge new ways of analysing data; We have bold plans to re-engineer innovative partnerships across and data sciences and artificial the computer codes we use to traditional discipline boundaries. intelligence are already leading to simulate weather and climate to huge new insights. make them fit for purpose for the PROFESSOR STEPHEN BELCHER CHIEF SCIENTIST next generations of supercomputers. We are eager to use the new data 4 5 Introduction Our vision: What we want to achieve by 2024 Recognised as global leaders in weather and climate science and services in our changing world Predicting our weather and climate, innovation, to the need for clean The Met Office has pioneered Our purpose: Why we exist and their impacts has become one growth, to the change in the climate the concept of seamless science of the most important areas of itself. The Met Office strategy to from weather forecasts through Helping you make better decisions to stay safe and thrive scientific and technical endeavour. deliver this vision is centred around to climate change projections, We have seen significant advances three strategic anchors: Excellent and provides services from in forecasting skill. But there is a people and culture; exceptional global prediction to forecasts for Strategic anchors: These are the areas we will focus on. The three areas overlap and complement each other. constant need for improvement as science, technology and operations; individuals, and the research and society drives for greater efficiency and extraordinary impact and innovation programme ranges and resilience. There is also now benefit. from deep scientific research and an increased and urgent need to technical innovation to operational Excellent Exceptional Extraordinary understand our rapidly changing These extraordinary impacts and services. This Research and climate and the effect this will have benefits are delivered by the services Innovation Strategy builds on our people and science, technology impact and on each and every one of us. The Met Office provides to government, rich past, responds to the challenges culture and operations benefit Met Office therefore exists to help business and citizens, which then posed by a changing world and sets you make better decisions to stay drives research and innovation in out the priorities needed to develop • Transforming our leadership • Delivering our future • The future of Operational Meteorology capability for the future supercomputing capability our exceptional science, technology • Taking a common approach to safe and thrive. our central anchor: exceptional • Championing equality, • Exploiting the future customer data services and operations. All this is only science, technology and operations, diversity and inclusion of data sciences • Delivering a common data platform The vision of the Met Office is to possible because of the excellent over the next 10 years. • Enabling and developing our people • Delivering our next-generation • Improving our 0-2 hour forecasts be recognised as global leaders people and culture, and our rich • Transforming the way we manage modelling capability and warnings our people information • Developing and nurturing in weather, climate science and network of structured partnerships • Understanding the boundaries capability partnerships in which we can trade services in our changing world. with exceptional organisations Meanwhile our world changes at across the world. increasing pace, from technological Strategic actions: Our priority activities which we’ll monitor and measure. Research and innovation themes: THEME 1 Pioneering Research Extend the frontiers of weather and climate knowledge. Global leaders in weather and THEME 2 climatealues science THEME 3 and services National Science Capability to Services Sustain and advance world-leading Develop and use scientific people, partnerships and knowledge, people, partnerships infrastructure for the weather and infrastructure to inform and climate community. risk-based decision making. 6 7 Weather and climate science and services in our changing world As our ability to better High-impact weather current weather conditions and Changing climate, studies point to the risks of conflict strategic advantage, much of which understand and predict future how they may change in the near changing hazards driven by pressures on resources is weather sensitive. Accurate weather and climate develops, As citizens, we expect safe housing future. This situational awareness from climate change. Furthermore, weather forecasts for key global so too do the expectations of and resilient provision of food, water needs to be rapidly updated during The climate is changing. Global mean many developing countries are locations, alongside reliable advice our customers and stakeholders. and energy, and we increasingly rely the emergency and then continually