PHOTOVOLTAICS the power of choice THE NATIONAL PHOTOVOLTAICS PROGRAM PLAN FOR 1996 – 2000 Contents Our Mission . 1 Industry . 16 Program Goals . 17 Executive Summary . 2 The PV Promise . 3 Implementing the Program . 18 The PV Challenge . 4 Research and Development . 20 Meeting the Challenge . 4 Technology Development . 24 Implementing the Program . 6 Systems Engineering and Applications . 26 Guiding the Effort . 9 Guiding the Effort . 28 The PV Promise . 10 Establishing Policies . 29 Organizing the National Program . 29 The PV Challenge . 12 Setting Strategies and Schedules . 30 Meeting the Challenge . 14 Funding the Program . 30 The Laboratories . 16 PV Program Technical Universities . 16 Areas and Milestones . Inside Back Cover i Our Mission Our mission is to make photovoltaics (PV) a significant To accelerate the use of PV in broader applications, part of the domestic economy—as an industry and an ener- we have established goals that serve as benchmarks for the gy resource. More than two decades of research and devel- progress we expect. Achieving these goals is necessary to opment (R&D), in partnership with industry, has advanced make PV an important contributor to the U.S. economy. As PV from a laboratory novelty to today’s growing U.S. indus- in previous program plans, we outline here the work try, which grossed more than $350 million in 1995. required to meet these strategic objectives. With further R&D, photovoltaics will contribute much The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) own strategic more to the national economy. Reducing system costs from plan focuses on five areas: energy resource development, about $7 per watt to $3 per watt could result in a domestic science and technology, industrial competitiveness, national industry with billions of dollars in annual sales. A recent security, and environmental quality. They provide a market study by the Utility PhotoVoltaic Group estimated a framework for a commitment at the highest levels to the potential domestic market for PV of 9000 megawatts at a goals and principles of the National Photovoltaics Program. system price of $3 per watt. Photovoltaics has enormous Because of this commitment within DOE, and our strong potential as a cost-competitive source of electricity because partnerships with industry, the outlook is promising for reducing costs to below $3 per watt is also possible. reaching the goals of this 5-year plan. We face a number of challenges to reduce the cost of Achieving those goals will bring us significantly closer electricity generated by PV systems and to increase their to the 9000-megawatt market projected by the Utility Photo- efficiency and lifetime. Working together, researchers in the Voltaic Group. Expanding our efforts to include closer collab- national laboratories, the nation’s universities, and oration with utilities, industry, universities, other government industry—the three major participants in the National agencies, and international organizations will help leverage Photovoltaics Program—are prepared to meet these our resources for maximum benefit to the nation. challenges. We will meet them with a well-balanced national James E. Rannels, Director program, with key milestones in both basic research and Photovoltaics Technology Division technology applications. The program includes world-class U.S. Department of Energy R&D to maintain U.S. leadership in technical breakthroughs Washington, D.C. and extensive work with industry to reduce manufacturing costs and to improve systems. The program also includes projects that validate today’s prototype systems in applications throughout the world. This 5-year plan for the National Photovoltaics Pro- gram outlines initiatives such as the Thin-Film PV Partner- ship, new phases of the PV Manufacturing Technology (PVMaT) Program, and Utility PhotoVoltaic Group projects for system validation. It also provides for cooperative international activities with the World Bank, the Global Environmental Facility, and applications in Asia, South and Central America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and the republics of the former Soviet Union. Our discussions with industry and utility leaders help us recognize that, to make PV a significant part of our economy, we must develop technology for specific applications. As PV system costs decline, the range of system uses will expand from today’s high-value consumer products and remote applications to grid-connected building systems, grid-distribution support, utility peaking power, and bulk power applications. 1 Bringing electricity to the world—a woman in India collects potable water provided by a PV-powered pump. Harin Ullal, NREL/PIX01993 2 Executive Summary The potential market for photo- technology a significant part of the U.S. voltaics—the direct conversion of sun- economy. light into electricity—is staggering. Since 1987 the worldwide demand for photo- T he PV Promise. U.S. industry and voltaics has grown from 29 megawatts the National Photovoltaics Program are per year to 84 megawatts per year, an investing their money, talent, and time in increase of nearly 290%. During the same photovoltaics because of the energy, period, U.S. PV companies have economic, and environmental benefits increased their module shipments by the technology holds for the nation and 400% and have increased their share of for the world. the world PV market to 41%. Photovoltaics is a versatile energy This is just the beginning for this technology that can be used for almost versatile, promising new energy any application requiring electricity, no technology. Photovoltaics is finding matter how big or small and no matter increasing acceptance in remote and how remote (see sidebar on page 6). It developing areas around the world, is increasingly becoming the preferred where some two billion people still lack source of electricity for many applica- the benefits of electricity. In the United tions. And it is a domestic technology States, applications for electricity that relies on a domestic resource— generated by PV are rapidly expanding sunlight; as such, it reduces the nation’s to new and larger markets. dependence on imported fossil fuels. The U.S. PV industry is poised to Photovoltaics is a high technology meet this national and international that, as a domestic industry, could demand. And the U.S. Department of create or support as many as 3800 well- Energy’s National Photovoltaics paying jobs for every $100 million worth Program (hereafter also U.S. share of world market (%) 41.3 referred to as 37.4 36.9 the PV 35.1 31.8 31.3 Photovoltaics has enormous Program or 29.8 33.0 30.9 energy, economic, and simply the environmental promise. To program) is 49.4 helping to 43.8 help meet this promise, the make this 37.6 39.8 National Photovoltaics attractive 38.3 Program manages a wide- 31.7 ranging and integrated 26.1 22.5 34.8 approach in which it 20.5 collaborates with U.S. 22.4 25.6 18.1 industry and academia to 14.1 14.8 17.1 11.1 make PV devices more 8.7 efficient, to make PV 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 systems more competitive, Rest of World U.S. and to validate the Since 1986, the U.S. has increased its module shipments by 400% technology. and its world market share to 41% (sales in megawatts). 3 revealing other potential uses for PV as well, such as converting waste heat into electricity Energy through thermal photovoltaics and producing hydrogen as a nonpolluting fuel. Economy T he PV Challenge. For PV to meet its Environment promise, both in terms of an energy technol- ogy and in terms of a domestic industry, we must do two major things. First, we must ensure that the U.S. PV industry not only grows into a large domestic industry but also that it remains competitive in the world PV markets. This means we must maintain the technical superiority of our Industry products. U.S. industry has been a leader in Federal PV technology thanks to the ongoing support Government of the National Photovoltaics Program and Photovoltaic research, the tenacity of the U.S. companies. To development, and maintain this leadership, the program and applications the companies must continue their close collaboration. Second, for PV to be seriously considered as a major energy option, we must expand old markets and enter new Industry- and government-funded photovoltaic research and development promote the three E’s: energy, economy, and the environment. ones by making PV competitive in a wider variety of applications and with more forms of electrical generation. of PV sales. Currently, the U.S. PV industry does more To accomplish both of these aims we are presented than $350 million of business per year, has increased its with the technical challenge of continuing to reduce the manufacturing capacity to 35 megawatts per year, and has cost of photovoltaic systems while making them more sold more than 210 megawatts of modules, cumulative. reliable, durable, and convenient to use. Although this has We expect this growth trend to continue, with cumulative been the constant aim of the National Photovoltaics sales surpassing 400 megawatts by the year 2000 and Program—since 1980 industry and the program have 10,000 megawatts by the year 2030. In fact, a study by the reduced the cost of PV-generated electricity to about Utility PhotoVoltaic Group suggests that, as system costs 25 cents per kilowatt-hour and have increased module drop to $3 per watt, we may see demand rise to greater lifetimes to 20 years—continuing to do so will make photo- than 9000 megawatts; and this is for domestic applications voltaic systems as attractive to consumers as the next alone. An additional benefit of PV for the U.S. economy best alternative for a wide spectrum of electric power derives from the fact that much of U.S.