NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE 2003 New South Wales Election - Final Analysis by Antony Green Background Paper No 6/03 RELATED PUBLICATIONS • Antony Green, New South Wales Election 2003 – Preliminary Analysis, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 4/03 • Antony Green, Prospects for the 2003 Legislative Council Election, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No 3/03 ISSN 1325-5142 ISBN 0 7313 1743 2 August 2003 © 2003 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, with the prior written consent from the Librarian, New South Wales Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the New South Wales Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the New South Wales Parliamentary Library. NSW PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY RESEARCH SERVICE David Clune (MA, PhD, Dip Lib), Manager.............................................. (02) 9230 2484 Gareth Griffith (BSc (Econ) (Hons), LLB (Hons), PhD), Senior Research Officer, Politics and Government / Law ......................... (02) 9230 2356 Talina Drabsch (BA, LLB (Hons)), Research Officer, Law....................... (02) 9230 2768 Rowena Johns (BA (Hons), LLB), Research Officer, Law........................ (02) 9230 2003 Roza Lozusic (BA, LLB), Research Officer, Law ..................................... (02) 9230 3085 Stewart Smith (BSc (Hons), MELGL), Research Officer, Environment ... (02) 9230 2798 John Wilkinson (BA (Hons), MA), Research Officer, Economics............ (02) 9230 2006 Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/WEB_FEED/PHWebContent.nsf/PHPages/LibraryPublication 2003 NEW SOUTH WALES ELECTION – FINAL ANALYSIS CONTENTS Introduction.............................................................................................................................. 1 Legislative Assembly Election Summary of Legislative Assembly Results .................................................................. 3 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division ..................................................... 8 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results.................................................................. 31 Regional Summaries .................................................................................................. 38 By-elections 1999 - 2003............................................................................................ 42 Selected Preference Distributions .............................................................................. 43 Legislative Council Election Summary of Legislative Council Result...................................................................... 46 Detail of Legislative Council Primary Votes................................................................ 47 Summary of Preference Distributions......................................................................... 53 New and Departing Members ............................................................................................... 55 Vote for Party by Vote Type.................................................................................................. 56 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MP .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations (blank) Non-Affiliated Candidates AFI Australians Against Further Immigration ALP Labor Party ALP Country Labor CDP Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group) DEM Australian Democrats FP Fishing Party FWD Four Wheel Drive Party HRP Horse Riders Party IND Independents GRN The Greens LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party NPP No Privatisation Peoples Party ONP One Nation NSW OTH Others RLS Reform the Legal System SA Socialist Alliance SOS Save Our Suburbs SP Shooters Party UNI Unity Important Dates State Election Londonderry Issue of Writs Friday 28 February 2003 Close of Rolls Friday 28 February 2003 As for state election Close of Nominations Thursday 6 March 2003, Noon Thursday 15 May, Noon How to vote registration Thursday 13 March 2003 Thursday 22 May Close of Postal Vote applications Wednesday 19 March 2003 Friday 30 May Polling Day Saturday 22 March 2003 Saturday 31 May Return of Writ Tuesday, 29 April 2003 Friday 6 June NSW Election 2003 INTRODUCTION This paper has been prepared as a final analysis of the 2003 New South Wales election. It updates the preliminary analysis published by the Parliamentary Library Research Service as background paper 4/2003. The new analysis provided includes details of the Londonderry supplementary election conducted on 31 May, final two-party preferred counts in every electorate, as well as an analysis of the distribution of preferences in the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council. For each Legislative Assembly electorate, full details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes are provided. The format and calculations used in the electorate results are as follows. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the previous election from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes that did not indicate a preference to the two remaining candidates are included in the total listed as Exhausted. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final candidates from the previous election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election (e.g. Tamworth), ghost candidates appear and more than two swing figures are shown. Where appropriate, two-party preferred totals are also provided. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote after the distribution of preferences. The distribution of preferences is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and distributing that candidate’s votes as preferences to other candidates remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. In most electorates, this will be the same as the 'two-party preferred vote’, representing the final distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party, and the Liberal and National Party Coalition. However, there were 14 electorates at the 2003 New South Wales election that did not finish with two-party preferred counts. Five finished as National/Independent contests (Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, Northern Tablelands, Port Macquarie, Tamworth), three as Liberal/Independent contests (Albury, Manly, Willoughby), three as Labor/Green contests (Keira, Marrickville, Port Jackson) and three others as Labor/Independent finishes (Bligh, Londonderry, Wollongong). For information purposes, the State Electoral Office has conducted a two-party preferred distribution of preferences between Labor and the Coalition in these seats. In the case of Londonderry, where no Liberal candidate nominated, the final count between Labor and Independent candidates has been used as the two-party preferred count. In some seats, in particular Northern Tablelands and Port Macquarie, the extremely high rate of exhausted preferences makes the two-party preferred counts relatively meaningless. On page 33 I have attempted to provide a measure of statewide two-candidate preferred count, as distinct from the traditional two-party preferred count. 1 NSW Election 2003 By-Elections and Sitting MP Indicators By-elections have been ignored in preparing the results for each electorate, and all swings are shown compared to the results of the 1999 election. Details of the four by-elections conducted between 1999 and 2003 can be found on page 40. An asterisk "*" is used to indicate any candidate who was a sitting Legislative Assembly MP. In Port Macquarie, Independent MP Rob Oakeshott is shown as the sitting MP despite originally being elected for the National Party. In Tamworth, the National Party’s John Cull won the seat at a by- election on 8 December 2001 and is shown as the sitting MP. Note that in both seats, swings are measured against votes for parties and candidates as they contested the 1999 election. In Port Macquarie, this means Mr Oakeshott’s 1999 vote is shown as the vote for the National Party, while he is shown as having no historical vote. In Tamworth, results of the by-election have been ignored. Australian Labor Party and Country Labor At the 2003 election, 22 Labor Party candidates nominated as Country Labor. Country Labor candidates