: SPECIAL REPORT Ivan Duque, the opposition takes over in Colombia Madrid, july 2018 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC IVAN DUQUE, THE OPPOSITION TAKES OVER IN COLOMBIA 1. INTRODUCTION The election of the new president of the Republic reveals a new 1. INTRODUCTION distribution of public power in Colombia and the system of 2. SUPPORT FOR REFORMS AND checks and balances in the country. INITIATIVES AUTHORS June 17, Ivan Duque Marquez, candidate for the opposition party, Democratic Center, was elected president for the 2018-2022 term. His victory proved his group’s strength, also reflected in the March legislative elections, when it was consolidated as the largest political force in the current Congress with 51 members. Duque was also supported by the parties Radical Change, Liberal, Conservative, Independent Movement of Absolute Renovation (MIRA) and Colombia Justa-Libre, who collectively make a significant majority in Congress (135 members, distributed among the Senate and the House of Representatives). So, the opposition to a government that had Congress as an important ally has now reached the executive with an even larger percentage of Congress in its favor. (Figure 1) Figure 1 2 IVAN DUQUE, THE OPPOSITION TAKES OVER IN COLOMBIA Up until the recent elections, The presence of a stronger the current president had 56% Democratic Center and of Congress in his favor and the participation of the “The new president and 21% supporting the opposition, Conservative Party and MIRA his party will have to which is now preparing to Party in the NO campaign yield on some points govern. Bearing in mind the during the 2016 referendum official support he received from on the Peace Agreements although most of the major political parties, Ivan strengthened the right-wing parties backed his Duque will have a majority of opposition, further reinforced candidacy, they are also 81% in his favor (227 of the 279 when Radical Change and the members of the two houses of Liberal Party –historic party pursuing interests of Congress) and just 16% directly alongside the Conservative their own” against, assuming the Social Party and an ally of Santos– Party of National Unity, or U joined Ivan Duque’s campaign. Party, (President Santos’ party, with 39 members) and Citizens However, the new president Option (2 members) will form a and his Democratic Center possible coalition government. party will have to yield on some points if they want to This prospect raises the preserve that support, since, favorable forces of the future although most of the parties government by 26% and reduces backed his candidacy, they are opposition by 5%.(Figure 2) also pursuing interests of their own. (Figura 3) Figure 2: Change in favorability CONSERVATIVE PARTY The leaders of the Conservative Party announced their support for Duque’s candidacy and his government’s commitment to reach an “Agreement on the Basics.” Part of that agreement is based on the following points: 1. Creation of the Ministry for the Family and Women 2. Protection of the fundamental value of life from conception to natural death 3. Restoring military honor. 4. Protection of tutelage. 3 IVAN DUQUE, THE OPPOSITION TAKES OVER IN COLOMBIA MIRA LIBERAL PARTY This party officially This party had no program announced its backing for agreements with Ivan Duque. Duque’s candidacy in May The liberals’ leader, former and reached an agreement President Cesar Gaviria, is on a program containing the known to have had a meeting following aspects: with the candidate at that time, at which they discussed 1. Religious freedom. the public policies and decisions his government 2. Electoral reform. would take. 3. Employment. After that meeting, Gaviria called the members of his party 4. Enterprising projects and to a meeting and made their income generation. support official, declaring that while there were differences 5. Inclusion of women. between them, they were not insurmountable. Figure 3 But the liberal youth and party members, such as Juan Manuel Galan and Luis Ernesto Gomez, demanded Gaviria’s resignation and questioned the decision to support the “Uribe” candidate, claiming he did not represent liberal ideals. It should be noted liberalism has been one of the mainstays of the outgoing government, Uribe’s opposing force due to the FARC negotiation. Nonetheless, 39 of the 41 members of Congress from the party voted to support the president elect. Gaviria stressed the liberals continued to take a firm stance on the Peace Agreements and would go to the Constitutional Court on any issues on which they did not agree with the Democratic Center. 4 IVAN DUQUE, THE OPPOSITION TAKES OVER IN COLOMBIA RADICAL CHANGE PARTY This group is expected to end up as part of, or at least close This party issued a press to, a coalition government release the day after the first headed by Ivan Duque. round, in which they did not announce official support In a nutshell, in light of the “The three pillars of Ivan for Duque’s candidacy but existing landscape, it is not Duque’s campaign are expressed their gratitude for possible to say all these legality, equality and the appreciation he had shown parties will always support the for the government program of new government, especially enterprise, accompanied former Vice President German regarding the issue of the by security, justice and Vargas, their presidential peace agreements. The Liberal freedom as the basis candidate. Party, Radical Change and the U Party have declared they are of his government’s For this reason, the party committed to its legislation, program” took the program as their still being structured, and own to develop it as their if they stick to this, it could legislative agenda in this new lead to friction within the Congress and sent it to the Democratic Center and then candidate Ivan Duque. Conservative Party. This was interpreted as a rapprochement between this The national government party and the Democratic will also assess its stance on Center. Although they did not matters of individual freedoms, openly support him, they said rights of sexual minorities they would approve any move and issues such as abortion by his government to back the and euthanasia, since, while reforms and bills proposed by the Conservatives and MIRA Radical Change. are against these, the other parties, especially the Liberals, U PARTY have defended campaigns of this nature. This party, which emerged as support for the former 2. SUPPORT FOR REFORMS president Alvaro Uribe and AND INITIATIVES accompanied Juan Manuel Santos in his two terms of The three pillars of Ivan government, gave freedom to Duque’s campaign are legality, the members of its group in equality and enterprise, the second round. However, at accompanied by security, least 15 members of Congress justice and freedom as the supported Duque, including basis of his government’s Jose David Name, Sandra program. During his election Villadiego, Manuel E. Rosero campaign, he announced seven and Eduardo Pulgar. priority reforms: (Figure 4) 5 IVAN DUQUE, THE OPPOSITION TAKES OVER IN COLOMBIA PEACE AGREEMENTS’ REFORM to when the next Congress takes office, and although nothing This will probably be the fiercest official, it will then become clear debate, as it is the most sensitive the majorities are reforming, issue between the national and the only ones who will “These reforms government and the opposition. defend the agreement in its correspond to As candidate, Duque said he entirety will be Green Alliance, would not tear the Agreement Polo, FARC, List for Decency, eliminating drug apart, as the party leader MAIS and other minority dealing as a political- Fernando Lodoño had indicated, parties. related crime, but that substantial reforms protecting land would be made. JUDICIAL REFORM obtained in good faith These reforms correspond and an inexorable to eliminating drug dealing After the controversial proposal amendment of the as a political-related crime, to unify the courts, the thus stripping offenders of Democratic Center prepared its Special Jurisdiction for amnesty; making it compulsory proposed judicial reform, aiming Peace (JEP)” to eliminate illegal crops; to not only create a single protecting land obtained in final court with specialized good faith, even if it is part chambers but also aspects of the Land Fund; and finally, such as the appointment of the an inexorable amendment of attorney general directly by the the Special Jurisdiction for president, ratified by the Senate, Peace (JEP), considering it a while shifting the electoral “mechanism for impunity.” power to the Judicial Branch. This issue will be sensitive for This reform contains other the U Party, Radical Change points aimed at reducing and Liberals, since during the the branch, which may seem presidential campaign they positive because with fewer backed candidates committed to high-level judges, the state complying with the agreements could save a large sum of reached and argued they were money. However, parties such only going to improve its as Democratic Pole and Green implementation. Alliance claim this proposal makes the judicial branch less The success of these reforms autonomous, affecting the will depend on how far the balance of powers essential in Democratic Center and Ivan any democracy. Duque are prepared to yield and the strength of commitment of Moreover, before the second the parties that initially backed round, this was one of the the negotiations. proposals most harshly criticized by Humberto de la Calle and June 18, the Senate postponed German Vargas Lleras, as it the approval debate of the JEP eliminates the right to tutelage. 6 IVAN DUQUE, THE OPPOSITION TAKES OVER IN COLOMBIA So, this reform is likely to be benefit for large enterprises met by distrust among some to the detriment of public tax members of the Liberal Party collections.