Mordialloc Bypass Project Report of Peter Kelly 1 Introduction My firm WSP prepared the impact assessment report titled Mordialloc Bypass, Transport Impact Assessment (Report) which is included as Appendix A to the Environment Effects Statement (EES) for the Mordialloc Bypass Project (Project). The role that I had in preparing the Report was directing the development of the report and reviewing the methodology and outputs at a variety of stages throughout the report’s production. Other significant contributors to the Report and their expertise is set out in Section (d) of Appendix A. I adopt the Report, in combination with this document, as my written expert evidence for the purposes of the Mordialloc Bypass Project Inquiry and Advisory Committee's consideration and reporting in respect of the Project. 2 Qualifications and experience Appendix A contains a statement setting out my qualifications and experience, and the other matters in accordance with Planning Panels Victoria's 'Guide to Expert Evidence'. A copy of my curriculum vitae is provided in Appendix B. 3 Further work since preparation of the Report Since the Report was finalised, I have undertaken further work in relation to the submissions received. In particular, the further work included: · Assessment of an alternative Woodlands Drive / freeway access arrangement · Assessments of the intersections of: · Dingley Bypass / Mordialloc Bypass · Governor Road / Mordialloc Bypass, and · Tootal Road / Centre Dandenong Road / Old Dandenong Road / Kingston Drive · Microsimulation modelling of freeway operations. A summary of my findings in relation to this further work is provided in Section 4.3 and Appendices C and D. However, this further work has not caused me to materially change my opinions as expressed in the Report, apart from the preferred arrangement for the Woodlands Drive freeway access, and no amendment is required for the EPRs. 4 Written Submissions 4.1 Submissions Received I have read the public submissions in respect of the EES and draft Planning Scheme Amendment for the Project and identified those that are relevant to the Report and my area of expertise. These include the following submissions: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,11,13,14,15,16,18,19,21,22,24,25,27,28,31,32,33,34,36,37,38,41,42,43,44,46, 47,49,50,52,57,60,61,62,63,65,67,69,71,73,75,76,77,79,81,82,87,88,90,92,93,94,95,96,99,100, 101,102,103,104,106,108,109,110,111 and 112. 4.2 Summary of Issues Raised The submissions have raised the following issues relevant to my area of expertise: · Traffic increase / decrease and performance on South Road, Governor Road, Centre Dandenong Road, Tootal Road, White Street and other local roads · Adequacy of capacity of the proposed Dingley Bypass Freeway Terminal configuration · Resilience of the project and potential requirement and impact of a 6-lane freeway configuration · Alternative project options - Value for investment – alternatives including public transport projects · Other local projects, including Westall Road extension · Access impact and traffic increase associated proposed Woodlands Drive Arrangement · Connectivity of shared use paths · Property access · Alternative intersection types · Construction impacts · Impact on Mornington Peninsula Freeway · Induced Traffic · Modelling accuracy · Necessity of project and interchange arrangements · Key performance metrics · B-double access · Freeway Management System including ramp metering My response to issues raised is provided in Section 4.3 below. 2 4.3 Response to Issues Raised Set out below are my comments and response to the issues raised by the written submissions relevant to my area of expertise. The EES has received 112 submissions in respect of the proposed Mordialloc Bypass project, of which many included a comment, query or recommendation with a traffic or transport related theme. Set out below are my comments related to traffic themes. 4.3.1 Impact on South Road A number of submissions were concerned with an increase of traffic led by the project along South Road that would further impact on the conditions of the existing transport network. Table 1 shows the expected daily increase in traffic at South Road following the project. Table 1 EES published document, Appendix A – Transport Impact Assessment (TIA), Table 8.6 - 2031 base case and project forecast demand – daily two-way volume ROAD LOCATION BASE CASE FREEWAY CONFIG. (%HV) (%HV) [Δ BASE CASE] South Road West of Warrigal Road 51,900 (18%) 57,000 (19%) [+5,100] South Road West of East Boundary Road 36,600 (15%) 41,400 (18%) [+4,800] As a result of the Mordialloc Freeway project, traffic volume is anticipated to increase along South Road as outlined in the TIA. The identified increase by 2031 equates to 9.8% (west of Warrigal Road) and 13.1% (west of East Boundary Road). Whilst improvement works have not been included as part of the Mordialloc Freeway project scope, the identified traffic increase caused by the project in the wider network context is recognised by the Government. On Oct 25th 2018, the Government announced a commitment to invest $30 million on infrastructure improvements for South Road and key intersections including but not limited to East Boundary Road, Nepean Highway and Jasper Road. Announced treatments include: – Additional right turn lane from South Road to Nepean Highway city-bound – Additional right turn lane at east approach and improved left turn slip lanes at East Boundary Road intersection – New signals and pedestrian crossing at Bignell Road intersection – New signals and intersection improvement at South Road, Taylor Street and Jasper Road intersection – Feasibility study of signalising Tucker Road / South Road intersection. I have not assessed the impact of these upgrades as part of my assessment. However, these measures are likely to assist in improving operating conditions along South Road. 3 4.3.2 Dingley Bypass Terminal A number of submissions were concerned with the appropriateness of the proposed at-grade signals at the Dingley Bypass terminal. SIDRA assessment has been undertaken at the Dingley Bypass terminal to inform the adequacy of the proposed reference design interchange layout. Analysis results indicate that the proposed configuration is sufficient to cater for the anticipated 2031 AM and PM peak hour demand. Refer to Section 3.1 in Appendix C for further details. A number of submissions suggested that the freeway terminal at Dingley Bypass should be constructed as a grade separated freeway interchange, potentially connecting to Westall Road also. Considering that an at-grade signalised intersection is sufficient to cater for 2031 design year peak hour traffic, the significant cost associated with constructing a grade separated interchange treatment would unlikely be justified. Further, the close proximity of the Boundary Road intersection means that a simple grade separation would not be possible due to weaving issues, resulting in more complex and expensive structures. The construction of a grade separated terminal to Dingley Bypass only would also need to be designed so as not to preclude a direct link to Westall Road in the future, potentially adding further cost. The Mordialloc Freeway will provide a network connection between Dingley Bypass and Mornington Peninsula Freeway. Mordialloc Freeway also functions as a distributor to spread traffic at key arterial roads including Centre Dandenong Road, Lower Dandenong Road and Governor Road. Hence not all traffic will travel from Mornington Peninsula Freeway to the Dingley Bypass terminal and vice versa. The distribution effect can be seen from the volume difference plot in Figure 1 below. Figure 1 EES published document, Appendix A – Transport Impact Assessment (TIA), Figure 8.17 - 2031 two-way daily light vehicle volume difference plot (2031 freeway configuration minus 2031 Base Case) 4 4.3.3 Six-lane freeway A number of submissions questioned the adequacy of the proposed 4-lane freeway configuration and requested the project to consider building a 6-lane freeway. With the Mordialloc Freeway, the Transport Impact Assessment identified that travel time between key origin-destinations is expected to be improved during both AM and PM peak periods. However, strategic modelling results indicated that the capacity of the proposed freeway and Mornington Peninsula Freeway may not be adequate to efficiently cater for the anticipated demand which could lead to potential flow break down. Table 2 shows the relevant table from the TIA. Table 2 EES published document, Appendix A – Transport Impact Assessment (TIA), Table 8.9 - 2031 origin-destination performance ORIGIN-DESTINATION PEAK DIR. 2031 BASE CASE1 2031 FREEWAY2 AVE TRAVEL AVE TRAVEL SPEED TIME SPEED TIME [KM/HR] [MIN] [KM/HR] [MIN] Mornington Peninsula Freeway north of AM NB 42 16.9 73 9.2 Thames Promenade to Dingley Bypass / PM NB 50 12.4 87 6.8 Boundary Road intersection Dingley Bypass / Boundary Road AM SB 49 12.1 91 6.5 intersection to Mornington Peninsula PM SB 37 20.2 72 9.6 Freeway north of Thames Promenade (1) Performance extracted from the existing routes e.g. Mornington Peninsula Freeway, Wells Road, Boundary Road, Dingley Bypass and Springvale Road. (2) Performance extracted from the proposed Mordialloc Bypass corridor, Mornington Peninsula Freeway and Dingley Bypass. From the table, it is clear that the Project Option (2031 Freeway) improves travel times along the corridor significantly, however the average travel speeds are less than what might be expected along a freeway signed at 100kph. In response, more detailed traffic assessment (microsimulation modelling) has been undertaken to more accurately model the proposed freeway configuration and impacts. Microsimulation modelling is a more accurate form of assessment tool for freeway assessment compared to strategic modelling that considers vehicle to vehicle interaction and behaviours/effects such as lane changing, vehicle bunching, geometric and control delays. This assessment concluded that the proposed 4-lane reference design is anticipated to operate at the target LOS in 2031 during both AM and PM peak periods with the target design Level of Service (LOS) to be D or better for all freeway segments.