#1 (143) January 2020 Ukraine-NATO: New challenges The red lines Trends in Ukrainian culture and opportunities for Zelenskiy’s team and leisure WEAPONS OF GROWTH WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS 3 BRIEFING ECONOMICS 4 The high cost of exchange 28 Hostages of politics What can Ukraine offer for the release of What will the Ukrainian economy depend the remaining prisoners on in 2020? POLITICS 30 A dangerous euphoria 7 Wating for the Lost Messiah of Drohobych On the potential of renewed growth in Peter Zalmayev on honest and false 2020 leaders SOCIETY 8 Ripples on water 32 The Servant of the People: Sexy CPSU Michael Binyon (London) on the future of Local elections as a challenge for the the EU after Brexit? Servant of the People party 10 Document or human being 34 Healthcare defense Why the Indian сitizenship legislation What Ukrainian healthcare should renewed widespread protests do in 2020 12 High hopes and (dis)heartening outcomes 36 Unitarity under assault Who’s to party in 2020 – the Euro-Atlantic How Zelenskiy’s initiatives threaten the community, Ukraine and Georgia, or integrity of the Ukrainian state Russia? 15 Özgür Ünlühisarcikli: “I think the US-Turkey NEIGHBORS relationships as we have known it is already 38 New challenges and opportunities dead” On the perspectives of Ukraine-NATO The director of German Marshall Fund’s dialogue office in Ankara on the current state 40 An (un)expected storm of relations between Turkey, USA, and Is escalation possible in the Sea of Azov Russia and the Black Sea in 2020? FOCUS 42 Dangerous liaisons? 18 Drive, not drag On the red lines that keep haunting What kind of military-industrial complex Volodymyr Zelenskiy could become the driver of economic and technological growth in Ukraine CULTURE & ARTS 22 Brake time? 44 Play this song on YouTube On the new administration’s failure to How culture is being absorbed by the make good on a single serious reform internet and what comes after 24 The age of marauders 47 Lectures in bars On the economic crisis in occupied Public talks and lecturing as regular way Donbas to spend free time in Ukraine 26 Imitating deoccupation 50 The months of Ukrainian music, French How Zelenskiy’s team is slowly adapting cinema and Nazareth to the frozen conflict in Donetsk and The Ukrainian Week offers a selection Luhansk of events to visit in January and February E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-00 The Ukrainian Week #1 (143) January 2020 Office address Kyiv, Ukraine, 36A, vul. Bohdana Khmelnytskoho, apt. 3 Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade, 1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Max Nestelieiev, Lidia Wolanskyj The high cost of exchange Stanislav Kozliuk BRIEFING Ukraine has started to take its citizens back from Russian captiv- ity. Late last year, two large exchanges took place. On September 7, 11 political prisoners and 24 navy POWs came home from Rus- sian prisons, while on December 29, an airplane landed at Bo- ryspil Airport with 76 Ukrainians released from captivity in DNR KOZLIUK STANISLAV PHОТО: and LNR. THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #1 (143) January 2020 6 BRIEFING | The next exchange has already been announced and In the case of the release of the “black squad” soldiers, Crimean Tatars will finally be on the list. In addition, the there was even a paper trail showing that the Prosecutor Zelenskiy administration, unlike its predecessor, has begun General had written a letter instructing his subordinates to to be more actively engaged in the issue of political prisoners resolve the issue of changing restraining methods and to co- and POWs, and to mention them more often – and can even ordinate their actions with the judges. The Ukrainian Week be pleased about a certain level of success. Still, it seems that spoke to individuals close to the exchange process who said it’s not as quick to talk about the price that Ukraine is paying that this kind of interference took place on a regular basis, to get its people back. but instructions were usually given verbally, not in writing. Critically, the question of freeing Ukrainians from Rus- Unfortunately, such interventions in the work of the courts sian captivity was, is and will continue to be a political is- and the prosecutors only undermines their already-frayed sue, not a humanitarian one. In part, this is because, one authority. More than that, it establishes a dangerous prece- way or the other, negotiations over these exchanges take dent of evading punishment for a crime, because the accused place between the presidential administrations of Ukraine can be exchanged no matter how serious their crime. For and Russia, and not, say, the offices of the two countries’ hu- instance, the Ukrainian press revealed that during the last man rights ombudsmen. This also underscores the fact that exchange, Ukraine released pro-Russian militants who were a separate negotiation platform to resolve this issue has not suspected of drug trafficking, petty larceny and homicide. been set up to this day, while the issue of releasing Ukrain- Ultimately, this kind of situation affects two groups of ian citizens continues to, directly or indirectly, be discussed victims; the families of the captives and the families of those in the Minsk contact group. Indeed, in over five years of war, who died on the Maidan, and this leads to a kind of gaslight- three large exchanges have taken place, the first being in ing: “If you favor exchanges, you must be against people be- December 2017. Even this suggests some shifts that are not ing punished for murder” and “If you want to see the guilty necessarily reassuring. punished, you must be against bringing Ukrainians home.” Moreover, complaints and dissatisfaction with the govern- ment’s actions are shifted to the groups of victims, who can- not influence events in any way. During the last release,127 people went to ORDiLO, while only 76 were Meanwhile, the problem with legislation remains un- returned to Ukraine. Moreover, it was not done in the format “all for all,” resolved. For instance, during all exchanges, rehabilitation as had been spoken of after the meeting of the Normandy four in early and assistance were provided on an ad hoc basis. This in- December. After all, Ukraine’s lists include more than200 civilians and cludes medical treatment, psychological rehabilitation and military as of December who are being held by the militants housing. A situation arose in which some political prisoners were “more important” than others. For instance Moscow’s hostages released in September were able to quickly get medical assistance at the Feofania Hospital, an elite institu- In addition to the politicization of the issue, it’s possible tion for government officials and so on. At the same time, Ro- to say that the exchanges are not equivalent. For one thing, man Ternovskiy, who had been released a few weeks earlier, Ukraine has given the Russian proxies in occupied Donbas was forced to look foreign donors to cover his rehabilitation. more individuals than it has received from them. During the The situation could be seriously improved if there were a last release, 127 people went to ORDiLO, while only 76 were law guaranteeing returned captives certain benefits, includ- returned to Ukraine. Moreover, it was not done in the format ing financial assistance, temporary housing and so on. Yet in “all for all,” as had been spoken of after the meeting of the the last five plus years, the Verkhovna Rada has never man- Normandy four in early December. After all, Ukraine’s lists aged to pass such a law. Word is that a bill on hostages wait- include more than 200 civilians and military as of December ing a legal audit in the Office of the President, and the par- who are being held by the militants. ents of the captives are hoping that it will be passed quickly. On the other hand, these exchanges are often accompanied There are realistic suspicions that after the December re- by scandals as Ukraine is handing people over to Russia who lease of Ukraine’s store of exchangeable individuals – how- have been accused of serious crimes: terrorists, military who ever cynical this may sound – has shrunk considerably. The were working for the FSB, and even a suspect in the shooting question arises: how, then, and with whom will Ukraine be of MH17. During the last exchange, five former Berkut officers able to interest Russia and its proxies next time around? who are accused of the mass shooting that took place on In- These worries were confirmed by The Ukrainian Week’s stytutska in Kyiv on February 20, 2014, and did not manage to sources. The only thing that can be done is to assume that flee from Ukraine went over to DNR. Their sentencing was ex- Ukraine will have to agree to political or economic conces- pected to take place within about six months. Now there’s no sions on the matter of gas, Crimea or federalization. And one to stand trial and the fate of this court case is up in the air. all this is in the face of Russia’s endless supply of potential At this point, another development can be seen in that the hostages. After all, in occupied Crimea and ORDiLO alone, expediency is more important than consequences in these there are a few million Ukrainians. Plus some hundreds of exchanges: the Presidential Administration has interfered in thousands who live in Russia.