July 2020 Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system A study on future scenarios for the scholarly publishing system www.technopolis-group.com Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system i Final report July 2020 Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system A study on future scenarios for the scholarly publishing system Annemieke van Barneveld-Biesma, Colleen Campbell, Elma Dujso, Andreas Ligtvoet, Chiel Scholten, Lennart Velten, Robert van der Vooren, Geert van der Veen This report is openly published under the Creative Commons license CC-BY, which requires giving credit to the authors and Technopolis Group when being reused. Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system ii Table of Contents Preface ________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Management summary _________________________________________________________________ 3 1 Introduction _________________________________________________________________________ 5 1.1 A study on Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system __ 5 1.2 Objectives of the study ___________________________________________________________________ 6 1.3 Methodology used for this study ___________________________________________________________ 7 1.4 Reading guide ___________________________________________________________________________ 8 2 A dynamic scholarly publishing system ________________________________________________ 9 2.1 A two-sided market _______________________________________________________________________ 9 2.2 Transitioning from the traditional subscription-based model __________________________________ 9 2.3 Open access modalities _________________________________________________________________ 12 2.4 Transformative agreements ______________________________________________________________ 14 2.5 Publishing platforms ______________________________________________________________________ 17 3 Actors in the scholarly publishing system and their main drivers _________________________ 18 3.1 Stakeholders in the context of open access negotiations ___________________________________ 18 3.2 Authors and readers _____________________________________________________________________ 18 3.3 Negotiating consortia ____________________________________________________________________ 21 3.4 Publishers _______________________________________________________________________________ 22 3.5 Research funders ________________________________________________________________________ 23 3.6 Governments ___________________________________________________________________________ 25 4 Four scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ 27 4.1 Reference scenario 1: Predominantly subscription-based contracts with delayed OA through repositories after publishing (‘Classical/Green’) ____________________________________________ 27 4.2 Scenario 2: Predominantly Publish & Read contracts (‘P&R/R&P’) ___________________________ 28 4.3 Scenario 3: Predominantly contracts for publishing open access through publisher-owned journals or platforms (‘publisher-owned OA platforms’) _____________________________________ 28 4.4 Scenario 4: Predominantly contracts for publishing open access through community-owned platforms (‘Community-owned OA platforms’) ____________________________________________ 29 5 Differences in implications between the scenarios ____________________________________ 31 5.1 Methodological note and limitations ______________________________________________________ 31 5.2 Impact on academic freedom and the freedom to publish in preferred journals _____________ 31 5.3 Ability to perform current research(er) performance assessment ____________________________ 32 5.4 Service levels of publishers and innovation in research communities _________________________ 33 5.5 Transparency in the market ______________________________________________________________ 34 Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system i 5.6 Effects on the arts, humanities and social sciences _________________________________________ 34 6 Perceived strengths and weaknesses of hypothetical scenarios ________________________ 35 6.1 Scenario 2: R&P contracts ________________________________________________________________ 35 6.2 Scenario 3: Publisher-owned OA platforms or journals ______________________________________ 37 6.3 Scenario 4: Community-owned OA platforms ______________________________________________ 39 7 Potential effects of the hypothetical scenarios on each stakeholder group _____________ 42 7.1 Authors and readers _____________________________________________________________________ 42 7.2 Negotiating consortia ____________________________________________________________________ 43 7.3 Publishers _______________________________________________________________________________ 44 7.4 Funders _________________________________________________________________________________ 46 8 Desirability and feasibility of the hypothetical scenarios _______________________________ 47 8.1 Scenario 2: Predominantly Publish & Read contracts (‘P&R/R&P’) ___________________________ 47 8.2 Scenario 3: Predominantly contracts for publishing open access through publisher-owned journals or platforms (‘Publisher-owned OA platforms’) _____________________________________ 47 8.3 Scenario 4: Predominantly contracts for publishing open access through community-owned platforms (‘Community-owned OA platforms’) ____________________________________________ 48 9 Overview and main conclusions _____________________________________________________ 50 9.1 Open access drivers _____________________________________________________________________ 50 9.2 Implications of R&P contracts_____________________________________________________________ 51 9.3 Implications of future scenarios for the scholarly publishing system __________________________ 52 9.4 Implications of future scenarios for various stakeholders ____________________________________ 52 9.5 Desired future, realistic future and likelihood of implementation _____________________________ 53 9.6 Schematic overview of scenarios _________________________________________________________ 54 9.7 Discussion and reflection _________________________________________________________________ 57 9.8 Recommendations ______________________________________________________________________ 58 List of abbreviations used __________________________________________________ 60 Consulted stakeholders ____________________________________________________ 61 Description of the behavioural model and application to scenarios __________ 64 Details on the Delphi surveys _______________________________________________ 67 Scenario summary tables __________________________________________________ 70 Details on contractual conditions __________________________________________ 78 PESTLE Factors _____________________________________________________________ 81 Tables Table 1 Stakeholders interviewed __________________________________________________________ 61 Read & Publish contracts in the context of a dynamic scholarly publishing system ii Table 2 Members of the study’s Steering Committee ________________________________________ 62 Table 3 Contract specificities and relation with scenarios – relevance and impact of no agreement _______________________________________________________________________ 79 Figures Figure 1 Percentage of gold and green open access publications by country _________________ 14 Figure 2 Actors in the context of open access negotiations ___________________________________ 18 Figure 3 Barriers inhibiting more open access adoption (N=71, multiple answers) _______________ 19 Figure 4 Factors affecting the negotiation process in terms of ease and duration (N= 77) _______ 25 Figure 5 Overview of the four scenarios and their reference to past, present and future ________ 27 Figure 6 Comparison of impact on academic freedom and freedom to publish in preferred journals ___________________________________________________________________________ 32 Figure 7 Comparison of the ability to perform current research(er) performance assessment ___ 33 Figure 8 Comparison of service levels of publishers and innovation in research communities ____ 34 Figure 9 Comparison of transparency in the market __________________________________________ 34 Figure 10 Comparison of different effects on the arts, humanities and social sciences ___________ 34 Figure 11 Advantages of a shift towards a market/system that is dominated by R&P contracts (N=61, multiple answers) ___________________________________________________________ 36 Figure 12 Weaknesses of a shift towards a market/system that is dominated by R&P contracts (N=60, multiple answers, cf. footnote 53) ____________________________________________ 37 Figure 13 Strengths of scenario 3 by response count based on free comments (N=40, multiple answers, cf. footnote 53) ___________________________________________________________ 38 Figure 14 Weaknesses of scenario 3 by response count based on free comments (N=40, multiple answers, cf. footnote 53) ___________________________________________________________ 39 Figure 15 Strengths of scenario 4 by response count based on free comments (N=36, multiple answers, cf. footnote 53) ___________________________________________________________ 40 Figure 16 Weaknesses 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