S Surrey Heath Borough Council Local Plan Strategic Highway Assessment Part 1: Model Development, Validation and Forecasting Minnerva Networked Wisdom Project Title: Surrey Heath Borough Council Local Plan Document Title: Strategic Highway Assessment Part 1: Model Development, Validation and Forecasting Date: 18th July 2018 Prepared By: Miles Logie (Minnerva), Georgina Sharpe (SCC) Authorised By: Gemma Joyner All maps contained in this document are licensed © Crown copyright and database rights 2018 Ordnance Survey 100019613 and are orientated to grid north Amendment List Iss. / Rev. Iss. / Rev Date 0201SF10 07/08/02 Filename: S:\Project-current\3000 PROJECT NOS STARTING WTIH 3000\3613\53613T48_Surrey Heath Local Plan 2017\02 Reports\Doc02_Surrey Heath_SHAR_Part_1.docx Issue No. 01 Page 2 Document No. 53613T48/02 Surrey Heath Borough Council Local PlanStrategic Highway Assessment Part 1: Model Development, Validation and Forecasting CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 REGULATION 18 APPRAISAL ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 ORGANISATION OF THIS REPORT ................................................................................................................ 6 2 BASE MODEL DEVELOPMENT .............................................................................................................. 7 2.1 MODEL AND SCOPE ................................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 FURTHER MODEL DOCUMENTATION .......................................................................................................... 7 2.3 BASE AND FORECAST YEARS ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 MODES OF TRANSPORT ........................................................................................................................... 8 2.5 TIME PERIODS ........................................................................................................................................ 9 2.6 DEMAND TYPES.................................................................................................................................... 10 2.7 STUDY AREA ........................................................................................................................................ 10 2.8 ZONING .............................................................................................................................................. 13 2.9 JUNCTION MODELLING .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.10 ASSIGNMENT ....................................................................................................................................... 14 3 MODEL VALIDATION ......................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 16 3.2 ASSESSMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................................................... 16 3.3 VALIDATION CRITERIA ............................................................................................................................ 16 3.4 METHODOLOGY FOR COMPARING COUNTS AND FLOWS ............................................................................... 16 3.5 MOTORWAY AND TRUNK ROAD MAINLINE COUNTS .................................................................................... 17 3.6 COUNT SELECTION ................................................................................................................................ 18 3.7 DEVELOPMENT OF SINTRAM72 BASE MATRICES ...................................................................................... 19 3.8 DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL MODEL BASE TRIP MATRICES ............................................................................... 22 3.9 LINK FLOW VALIDATION ......................................................................................................................... 27 3.10 JOURNEY TIME VALIDATION .................................................................................................................... 33 3.11 NETWORK VALIDATION ADJUSTMENTS ..................................................................................................... 35 3.12 VALIDATION SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... 36 4 MODEL FORECASTING ....................................................................................................................... 36 4.1 FORECAST YEAR ................................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 FORECAST SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................... 36 4.3 DEVELOPMENT SITES AND PRO-FORMA .................................................................................................... 37 4.4 CHANGES IN LAND USE FORECASTS .......................................................................................................... 40 4.5 VEHICLE TRIP GENERATION..................................................................................................................... 40 4.6 VEHICLE TRIP DISTRIBUTION ................................................................................................................... 44 4.7 GOODS VEHICLES ................................................................................................................................. 45 4.8 CHANGES IN FORECAST DEMAND ............................................................................................................. 46 4.9 FORECAST NETWORK ............................................................................................................................ 48 4.10 ASSIGNMENT ....................................................................................................................................... 48 5 APPENDIX .......................................................................................................................................... 50 5.1 AM PEAK HOUR (0800 – 0900) LINK FLOW VALIDATION COUNT COMPARISON ............................................. 50 5.2 PM PEAK HOUR (1700 – 1800) LINK FLOW VALIDATION COUNT COMPARISON ............................................. 61 5.3 JOURNEY TIME VALIDATION ROUTE COMPARISON GRAPHS .......................................................................... 71 5.4 SINTRAM72 LATENT DEMAND.............................................................................................................. 74 5.5 LOCAL MODEL VEHICLE DEMAND ............................................................................................................ 75 Issue No. 01 Page 3 Document No. 53613T48/02 Surrey Heath Borough Council Local PlanStrategic Highway Assessment Part 1: Model Development, Validation and Forecasting TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE 2-1 TRAVEL MODES FOR DEMAND MODELLING _________________________________________________ 8 FIGURE 2-2 TIME PERIODS USED IN MODELLING ______________________________________________________ 9 FIGURE 2-3 TRIP PURPOSES USED IN DEMAND MODELLING ______________________________________________ 10 FIGURE 2-4 SINTRAM72 INNER STUDY AREA ______________________________________________________ 11 FIGURE 2-5 EXTRACTION OF SURREY HEATH SHA NETWORK _____________________________________________ 12 FIGURE 2-6 LOCAL MODEL NETWORK SHOWING SURREY HEATH (PURPLE) AND SURROUNDING AREAS ________________ 12 FIGURE 2-7 MODEL ZONES IN AND AROUND SURREY HEATH BOROUGH _____________________________________ 13 FIGURE 2-8 JUNCTION CONTROLS AND LANE MARKINGS ________________________________________________ 14 FIGURE 2-9 MODELLING OF MOTORWAY MERGES ____________________________________________________ 14 FIGURE 2-10 AM HIGHWAY ASSIGNMENT CONVERGENCE - EPSILON VALUES _________________________________ 15 FIGURE 3-1 MATRIX ESTIMATION COUNT SITES ______________________________________________________ 19 FIGURE 3-2 STUDY AREA, HINTERLAND, AND EXTERNAL ZONE AREAS _______________________________________ 20 FIGURE 3-3 DETAIL OF STUDY AREA ZONING ________________________________________________________ 20 FIGURE 3-4 PRIOR VERSUS ME CAR TRIP ENDS FOR THE AM PEAK HOUR (0800 – 0900), LOCAL MODEL. NOTE MAXIMUM LABEL VALUE =200. ____________________________________________________________________ 23 FIGURE 3-5 PRIOR VERSUS ME CAR TRIP ENDS FOR THE AM PEAK HOUR (0800 – 0900), SURREY HEATH. NOTE MAXIMUM LABEL VALUE =100. ____________________________________________________________________ 24 FIGURE 3-6 PRIOR VERSUS ME CAR TRIP ENDS FOR THE PM PEAK HOUR (1700 – 1800), LOCAL MODEL. NOTE MAXIMUM LABEL VALUE =200. ____________________________________________________________________ 25 FIGURE 3-7 PRIOR VERSUS ME CAR TRIP ENDS FOR THE PM PEAK HOUR (1700 – 1800), SURREY HEATH. NOTE MAXIMUM LABEL VALUE =100. ____________________________________________________________________ 26 FIGURE