1 The sttrattegiic EU--CELAC rellattiion shiip:: Pendiing assessmentt ٭By Gustavo Hernández In February 2013 a Brussels newspaper, European Voice, results with strategic importance for the EU-CELAC published a short article analysing the First Summit of the “strategic relationship”. Perhaps for this reason, as is well Community of Latin American and Caribbean States discussed by José Antonio Sanahuja, a prominent (CELAC) and the European Union (EU) that took place in professor at the Complutense University in Madrid, bi- Santiago de Chile, echoing an evaluation undertaken by regional relations, in particular the Summits “no longer the influential magazine The Economist. According to the carry the same import, or seem as relevant and credible as analysis of European Voice, the EU-Latin America Summit in the past, symptomatic of agendas that are diluted by the in Chile ended “with little in the way of tangible results”.2 sheer breadth of issues it tries to address, and the failing Two years later, two renowned analysts of relations interest of leaders, the economic, political and social between the European Union and Latin America appear to players, public opinion”.5 There are two corollaries that have republished the same categorical evaluation, referring follow from our main affirmation. Firstly, (a) a return, to the recent Summit of Heads of State and Government particularly in the Summits, to the overriding use of rhetoric that took place in Brussels in June 2015: the feeling of in relations with specific countries and/or on a diverse “relationship fatigue” seems to extend to both sides of the range of independent issues where consensus is becoming Atlantic.3 Or even more dramatically, as suggested by a increasingly difficult. And secondly, par excellence, (b) the research associate at the Foundation for International need for a new “narrative” or mobilising perspective which Relations and Foreign Dialogue (Fundación para las confronts and surpasses the current basis on which the Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior – FRIDE): EU-Latin America and Caribbean relationship is founded, in a “puzzle of relations and not a coherent region-to-region particular with regards to the vision of “sustainable partnership”. 4 This is no small matter if we consider from development”. a diachronic perspective the not very productive assessment made by the international press regarding the The end of an economic cycle previous Summit in Santiago in 2013, and the It is a truism to say that relations between Europe and comparatively scant interest of the international press Latin America and the Caribbean are developing in a regarding the most recent Summit which took place in context that has changed rapidly in recent years. Indeed, Brussels. as suggested in the title of an essay written by the The main thesis in this article argues the end of a cycle Secretary General of FLACSO Equity and Social Justice in whose long-term objectives no longer seem to provide a Latin America: The Return of History, (Equidad y Justicia sense of purpose or offer a perspective of leading to Social en América Latina: El Retorno de la Historia- in Spanish) the end of the cycle of economic growth in Latin 1 America – the so-called “recovery decade” – is being This analysis was conducted at the request of ACT Alliance EU and CIFCA followed by a cycle that is affecting the ability of networks as part of their joint work on the CELAC-EU Summit 2015. It reflects the analysis and opinions of the author and does not necessarily governments in the region to pursue the social policies of reflect the positions of ACT Alliance EU and CIFCA. the past decade, in which they achieved a number of * Doctorate in Latin American Studies from the University of Texas in Austin. successes in reducing poverty and inequality.6 Indeed, by Coordinator of Cross-Cultural Bridges Foundation in Europe. 2 European Voice. “Lack of results”, Brief section. 31 January-6 February, using a diachronic perspective and analysing updated 2013. statistics from ECLAC and the World Bank, the above- 3 SANAHUJA, José Antonio. The EU and CELAC: Reinvigorating a strategic partnership. Hamburg, EU-LAC Foundation: 2015. p. 23. 4 5 GRATIUS, Susanne. “EU-LAC: In need of a new roadmap”. Euroactive, 17 June SANAHUJA, José Antonio. Op. cit, p. 30. 6 2015. BONILLA, Adrián. El País, 3 May 2015 (unofficial translation into English) mentioned study concludes that “the growth in Latin the trend in rising emissions in the region is set to continue America did not announce a new upturn in the region to in the near future, due to economic growth, “the pressures suggest that it has changed forever”. On the contrary, “the on the environment will tend to worsen”.12 countries south of the Rio Grande continue to face persistent problems of poverty, social and political The European Union faces existential questions inequality, as always: with the economic elites best (again) protected and the most vulnerable seeing how the winning 7 In 2013 the European Union recorded a per capita GDP, decade is slipping through their fingers like desert sands”. measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) of around $ It turns out that the depletion of the growth cycle in Latin 34,700, considerably higher than in Latin America and the America is a phenomenon caused by the international Caribbean, which reached $ 14,900. In the year 2000, per context and is being played out simultaneously in several capita income stood at $ 23,500 and $ 8,900, respectively. regions of the world.8 According to a recent ECLAC study Therefore, despite the higher relative increase recorded in published on the eve of the second EU-CELAC Summit, Latin America and the Caribbean, the income gap between 2003 and 2014 Latin American and Caribbean between the two regions has increased in absolute 13 countries grew at rates well above those of the European terms. While the countries of the European Union are at Union countries. Even in 2009, when GDP fell in both the technological frontier or close to it in several advanced regions, the decline was much lower in Latin America and technologies, for example in the chemical-pharmaceutical the Caribbean. However, the study continues, “This sector or in metalworking, Latin American and Caribbean remarkable growth in the Latin American economies was countries have few companies capable of producing driven by a cyclical boom in export prices for a number of frontier technologies. Despite this huge difference, neither bulk and semiprocessed commodities (hydrocarbons, of the two regions has reached levels of productivity seen metals, soybeans and fruits, mainly)”.9 Thus, exports of in the United States, nor the growth rate of this variable goods from Latin America and the Caribbean to the EU the most dynamic economies of Asia. This common are still concentrated on commodities and derivatives characteristic necessarily affects major international trade with low technological content.10 And if that were not negotiations, especially those of a transatlantic and enough, Latin America and the Caribbean have reached transpacific scope. Apart from issues related to tariffs, the similar levels to the EU in annual emissions of greenhouse ongoing negotiations of the European Union, in particular gases, despite their lower level of development.11 Since those relating to TTIP, could have a strong regulatory impact on exports from Latin America and the Caribbean.14 7 Ibid, Op. cit. 8 Under the motto “Shaping our common future: working for According to Bonilla (Op. cit), there is no exception that identifies Latin America in particular, and both the expansion as the decline of their prosperous, cohesive and sustainable societies for our economies are expressions of global structural dynamics, rather than citizens”, the Heads of State and Government of the unconnected episodes caused by the miraculous visions of their political European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean met leaders. However, at the level of policy design and implementation, it is clear that there are a number of governments who achieved better social in Brussels on 10 and 11 June 2015 on the occasion of outcomes during this period. Governments who self-identify with the “left” for the second EU-CELAC Summit. In parallel, on 10 June, example, have clearly gained better results in reducing the Gini index, which various authorities and company representatives from 61 measures inequality, than those who are regarded as liberal or “centre” governments. 9 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean - ECLAC. The fleet and gasoline consumption are all growing rapidly. Furthermore, rates of European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean in the new economic car ownership in large cities are expected to increase as a result of stronger and social context. Santiago de Chile, May 2015, p.11. economic growth” (ibid, Op. cit. p. 42). 10 ECLAC, Op. cit. p. 54. 12 ECLAC, Op. cit. p.13. 11 “The high levels of pollution, and their attendant effects on health, are an 13 ECLAC, Op. cit. p. 24. issue of greater concern in Latin America, where urban areas, the vehicle 14 ECLAC, Op. cit. p. 65. countries on both sides of the Atlantic met in Brussels in The private sector in development and the declared the so-called V Business Summit, under the motto benefits of small businesses “Promoting inclusive and sustainable growth by enhancing the role of small and medium enterprises”. The final The Declaration of Heads of State and Government of the declaration of the V Business Summit, whose structure and European Union and the Community of Latin American and messages are not far from the Declaration of the IV Caribbean States who met in Brussels on 10 and June 11, Business Summit held two years earlier in Chile,15 calls on 2015, also known as the Brussels Declaration, covers a governments to consider “the values of the free market wide variety of issues (sustainable development, poverty and legal security as fundamental conditions to encourage eradication, climate change, renewable energy, social long-term sustainable growth and quality employment”.