MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE NETHERLANDS Institute of Meteorological, Hydrological and Environment The Netherlands Climate Assistance Program PROJECT Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal District Phu Vang, Thua Thien Hue province FINAL REPORT Ha Noi, April 2008 CONTENT ABBREVIATIONS.......................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF FIGURES.......................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF REPORTS OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS ........................................................... 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.............................................................................................. 15 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................16 CHAPTER 1: NATURAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE AND THE HUONG RIVER CATCHMENT..................22 1.1 Natural characteristics..................................................................................................... 22 1.2 Some socio-economic conditions.................................................................................... 38 CHAPTER 2: NATURAL DISASTERS AND THEIR IMPACTS IN THUA THIEN HUE44 2.1 Typhoon, whirlwind, sea level rise and their impacts ..................................................... 44 2.2 Drought, salinity intrusion and their effects.................................................................... 45 2.3 Flood and its impacts ...................................................................................................... 46 2.4 Flash flood and its impacts.............................................................................................. 50 2.5 Landslide, erosion of river bank, seashore and impacts.................................................. 50 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW ON CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD, IN VIET NAM AND THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE .............................................................55 3.1 Climate change on the world........................................................................................... 55 3.2 Climate change in Viet Nam ........................................................................................... 59 CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THUA THIEN HUE..........................76 4.1 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 76 4.2 Study on impacts of climate change on Water Resources in Thua Thien Hue................ 77 4.3 Climate change impacts on biodiversity ......................................................................... 90 4.4 Climate change impacts on coastal zone......................................................................... 91 4.5 Climate change impacts on Sectors................................................................................. 92 4.6 Climate change impacts on Phu Vang District................................................................ 96 4.7 Vulnerability of Thuan An Town.................................................................................... 99 4.8 Climate change impacts on Chan May Lang Co area ................................................... 102 4.9 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 103 CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................105 ADAPTATION MEASURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE....................................................................................................................105 5.1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 105 5.2 Climate change adaptation options in Huong river and Thua Thien Hue province....... 106 5.3 Solutions of climate change adaptation option in Phu Vang District............................ 115 2 5.4 Solutions for climate change adaptation option for Thuan An Town ........................... 117 5.5 Solutions of climate change adaptation in Chan May–Lang Co area............................ 119 5.6 Integration climate change consideration into ICZM.................................................... 120 5.7 Implementing Adaptation.............................................................................................. 122 CHAPTER 6 ............................................................................................................................131 LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS.......................................................131 6.1 Cost-effective use of local and existing resources and decentralization ....................... 131 6.2 Cost-effective collaboration .......................................................................................... 131 6.3 Use both top-down and bottom-up styles in participatory approach............................. 132 6.4 Need for translation of the scientific studies results to the language of the end-users .. 132 6.5 Wise use of indigenous knowledge and expert opinion ................................................ 133 6.6 Think globally, act locally............................................................................................. 133 6.7 Recommendations......................................................................................................... 133 REFERENCES........................................................................................................................137 3 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank CC Climate Change C Carbon cm Centimeter CO 2 Carbon dioxide ðDSH biodiversity EIA Environment impact assessment ERU Emission Reduction Unit EU European Union ETC ? EVN Vietnam Electricity Corporation GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas IWRM Int egrated Water Resources Management HMS Hydro -meteorology Service MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Vietnam) MOI Ministry of Industry MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment mm Millimeter m3 Cubic meter m2 Square meter m/s Meter/second Mo Module of annual runoff NCAP Netherlands Climate Assistance Program TFPSR Typhoon and Flood Prevention, Search and Rescue ppb Portion per billion ppm Portion per million ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management Q Water discharg e TTH Thua Thien Hue PPC Provincial People’s Committee IMHEN Institute of Meteorological, Hydrological and Environmental 4 W Total annual runoff TCES Tropical Cyclone in the East Sea UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNFCCC United Nations Frame work Convention on Climate Change Y Depth of flow 5 LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Distribution of land in Huong River catchment (ha) 1.2 Annual and monthly rainfall (mm) 1.3 Some maximum rainfall characteristics (mm) 1.4 Maximum time of no rainfall (day)criteria 1.5 Number of typhoons landing on Binh Tri Thien during 1952-2006 1.6 Characteristics of annual runoff of some main rivers in Thua Thien Hue 1.7 Distribution of runoff according to season of some stations (average of many years) 1.8 Monthly discharge in low flow season 1.9 Area (km 2), population (persons) and population density (persons/km 2) 1.10 Structure of gross product in some recent years 1.11 Some main socio-economic indices in recent years 2.1 Drought index in Thua Thien Hue 2.2 Monthly drought frequency (%) 2.3 Intensity of Rainfall at Hue Station 2.4 The biggest flood runoff characteristics in some basins 2.5 Average number of flood on the Huong and Bo Rivers in 1996–2005 2.6 Disaster and its impacts in Thua Thien Hue (cont.) 2.7 Disaster and disaster’s Impacts in Chan May – Lang Co SEZ Amount of C emission (billion tons) and CO concentration in the atmosphere 3.1 2 (ppb) in different scenarios Spans of temperature rise in accordance with the rise of CO2 content projection 3.2 for 2100 Characteristics of temperature changes ( 0C) at A Luoi station Time scale: 1974- 3.3 2004 3.4 Characteristics of rainfall changes (mm) at A Luoi station time scale: 1974-2004 3.5 Climate change simulations in Viet Nam Increase in annual and seasonal temperature ( oC) in TT Hue by decades of 2010- 3.6 2100, comparing with 1990, respectively to 2 High emission scenarios (A1FI and A2) 6 Change in annual and seasonal rainfall (%) in TT Hue by decades of 2010-2100, 3.7 comparing with 1990, respectively to 2 High emission scenarios (A1FI and A2) Change in annual and seasonal temperature ( oC) in TT Hue by decades of 2010- 3.8 2100, comparing with 1990, respectively to 2 Medium emission scenarios (A1B and B2) Change in annual and seasonal rainfall (%) in TT Hue by decades of 2010-2100, 3.9 comparing with 1990, respectively to 2 Medium emission scenarios (A1B and B2) Change in annual and seasonal temperature ( oC) in TT Hue by decades of 2010- 3.10 2100, comparing with 1990, respectively to 2 Low emission scenarios (A1T and B1) Change in annual and seasonal rainfall (%) in TT Hue by decades of 2010-2100, 3.11 comparing with 1990, respectively to 2 Low emission scenarios (A1T and B1) Sea level rise in decades of century 21 in Hon Dau, Vung Tau and Thua Thien 3.12 Hue (cm) 3.13 Monthly potential