Pgm market report May 2021 The Pgm market report is written by Alison Cowley. Special feature written by Margery Ryan. Johnson Matthey’s pgm market research for this report was conducted by: Lucy Bloxham Stewart Brown Laura Cole Alison Cowley Mikio Fujita Nicolas Girardot Jason Jiang Rupen Raithatha Margery Ryan Elaine Shao Beck Tang Athena Wang Fei Xiaoyan From 2022, the Pgm market report will be published as a single annual edition, in May each year. Disclaimer Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this report, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this report, which are utilised expressly at the user’s own risk. This report has been prepared by the Market Research Department of Johnson Matthey PLC and contains information, opinions, estimates and forecasts relating to the development of the pgm markets. Such information, opinions, estimates and forecasts are as of the date set out and are subject to change. None of the information contained in the report should be construed as, or form part of, a recommendation to buy or sell any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments, or as making any recommendation or as providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase sale or other disposition of, any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments. A decision to invest in any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the information or materials in this presentation. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments. Table of contents Definitions 4 Tables Platinum supply and demand: Troy ounces 38 Pgm summary Supply and demand in 2020 5 Platinum gross demand by region: Troy ounces 39 Platinum supply and demand: Tonnes 41 Platinum outlook Supply and demand in 2021 14 Platinum gross demand by region: Tonnes 42 Palladium supply and demand: Troy ounces 44 Palladium outlook Supply and demand in 2021 21 Palladium gross demand by region: Troy ounces 45 Palladium supply and demand: Tonnes 47 Rhodium outlook Supply and demand in 2021 26 Palladium gross demand by region: Tonnes 48 Rhodium supply and demand: Troy ounces 50 Ruthenium and iridium Summary of demand in 2020 Rhodium supply and demand: Tonnes 51 and outlook for 2021 29 Ruthenium demand: Troy ounces 52 Special feature Ruthenium demand: Tonnes 53 Green hydrogen for a net zero future What role for pgm? 32 Iridium demand: Troy ounces 54 Iridium demand: Tonnes 55 Notes to tables 56 Glossary 57 Emissions legislation 58 Euro 6 emissions legislation 59 3 Johnson Matthey Pgm market report May 2021 Definitions Europe EU+ (includes Turkey but excludes Russia) Japan Japan only North America USA and Canada (excludes Mexico) China China only RoW Rest of World: all countries not captured in the above Supply Supply figures represent sales of primary pgm by producers and are allocated to the region where mining took place, rather than the region of subsequent processing. Recycling Recycling figures represent secondary pgm supplies and are the quantity of metal recovered from open-loop recycling (i.e. where the original purchaser does not retain control of the pgm throughout). Outside the autocatalyst, jewellery and electronics markets, open-loop recycling is negligible. Autocatalyst recycling represents the weight of metal recovered from end-of-life vehicles and aftermarket scrap. It does not include warranty or production scrap. It is allocated to the region where the vehicle was originally sold (but not necessarily scrapped). Gross demand Gross demand figures for any given application represent the sum of industry demand for new metal in that application; that is it is net of any closed-loop recycling (i.e. where industry participants retain ownership of the metal: an example would be recycling of spent chemical catalysts where the metal is retained to be used on fresh catalyst that replaces the spent charge). Gross demand also includes any changes in unrefined metal stocks in the sector. Increases in unrefined stocks lead to additional demand, while reductions in stocks (including any metal released from industry, e.g. in the case of chemical plant closures) lead to lower demand. Autocatalyst demand is allocated to the region where the vehicle is manufactured and is accounted for at the time of vehicle production. It includes emissions catalysts on vehicles, motorcycles and three-wheelers, and non-road mobile machinery. (Fuel cell vehicles are counted under industrial demand.) Jewellery demand is allocated to the region where the finished jewellery is manufactured, not sold. Net demand Gross demand less open-loop recycling. Movements in stocks This figure gives the overall market balance in any one year and reflects the extent of stocks that must be mobilised to balance the market in that year. It is thus a proxy for changes in stocks held by fabricators, dealers, banks and depositories, but excludes stocks held by primary and secondary refiners and final consumers. A positive figure (market surplus) thus reflects an increase in global market stocks. A negative value (market deficit) indicates a decrease in global market stocks. 4 Johnson Matthey Pgm market report May 2021 Pgm summary Supply and demand in 2020 Pgm supply and demand fell in tandem Pgm supply and demand fell in 2020, reflecting Covid-related in 2020, leaving platinum, palladium impacts on the automotive, industrial and jewellery sectors, and rhodium in continued deficit. and disruption to both primary and secondary supplies. Combined autocatalyst demand for platinum, palladium and rhodium fell by 13%, as the first pandemic wave triggered Industrial pgm demand was supported temporary shutdowns at car plants, and consumers deferred by the construction of new petrochemical new vehicle purchases. Weak consumer spending also hit and glass fibre capacity in China. platinum jewellery fabrication, but industrial pgm demand was more resilient, with heavy buying from industrial Autocatalyst pgm demand fell by 13%, customers in China, where new plant construction by as the first pandemic wave triggered petrochemical and glass companies proceeded on schedule. widespread car plant closures. World primary pgm supplies shrank by around 16%, due to outages at Anglo American Platinum’s converter plant in addition to pandemic-related disruption, while secondary Chinese platinum jewellery demand supplies fell by 12% on lower vehicle scrappage rates. Weak slumped to a twenty-year low, due to Covid platinum prices helped stimulate exceptional demand lockdowns and weak consumer demand. for platinum bars and ETFs, but palladium and rhodium investors took profits as both metals recorded all-time highs. Net platinum investment exceeded Overall, changes in supply and demand were of a similar 1 million oz, but investors continued to magnitude, leaving all three metals in continued deficit. liquidate palladium and rhodium ETFs. References to ‘pgm’ in this chapter refer to platinum, palladium and rhodium. A discussion of demand for iridium and Primary pgm supplies shrank by 16%, ruthenium in 2020−2021 is included separately, on page 29. due to processing outages and Covid- related disruption in South Africa. Palladium and rhodium prices reached all- time highs in 2020, as market liquidity was drained by successive deficits. “Investment linked to China’s Thirteenth Five-Year Plan helped support pgm purchasing by the Light vehicles Palladium glassmaking, petroleum refining Rhodium Platinum and chemicals industries. Most 15,000 100 projects planned for 2020 were 12,000 80 implemented on schedule, despite 9,000 60 the pandemic. There was also some 6,000 40 advance purchasing of platinum 000 o pgm 000 o Million vehicles for future projects, after prices 3,000 20 fell to multi-year lows in March” 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 1 Autocatalyst pgm demand & light vehicle output 5 Johnson Matthey Pgm market report May 2021 Palladium Platinum 40 35 30 25 20 Lease rate, rate, Lease 15 10 5 0 JL 20 JL 19 JL 18 JAN 20 JAN 21 JAN JAN 19 JAN JAN 18 JAN OCT 20 OCT 19 OCT 18 APR 21 APR APR 20 APR APR 19 APR APR 18 APR Figure 2 Platinum and palladium lease rates (3-month) Market balances and liquidity “Japanese bar purchases surged In the platinum market, investment demand has been a as the retail platinum price key driver of deficits over the past two years. Platinum ETF plunged to a seventeen-year low” holdings rose by more than 1.5 million oz in 2019−2020, while Japanese retail investors purchased around 400,000 oz of metal in the form of physical investment bars. With gold of strong growth in automotive consumption, at rates that and palladium trading at or near record prices, platinum greatly exceeded gains in primary and secondary supply. was perceived as offering value for money to precious metal Between 2015 and 2019, the use of palladium and rhodium investors, especially in view of its potential for future use in autocatalysts expanded by over a quarter, while combined in gasoline autocatalysts and the hydrogen economy. primary and secondary supplies rose by less than 10%. Although automotive demand for these metals fell in 2020, supply Despite this heavy investment demand, the platinum market also contracted, leaving both markets in ongoing deficit. remains theoretically well-supplied, following several years of surplus over the last decade. Nevertheless, the market Over the 2015–2020 period, we estimate that the cumulative recorded periods of exceptional tightness in 2020, with palladium shortfall totalled over 3 million oz, even after ingot shortages in platinum’s traditional European trading allowing for the liquidation of ETF holdings, which returned hubs driving lease rates above 12% in April (Figure 2).