AUGUST 2020 DISPLACEMENT MONTHLY REPORT CONGO HUMANITARIAN ANALYSIS TEAM TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Methodology The CHAT’s team of researchers and analysts Displacement Dynamics 4 collects, triangulates, and analyzes information collected from primary and secondary sources. On Confirmed Displacement 4 a weekly basis, researchers conduct key informant interviews about specific events identified as drivers Displacement Not Confirmed 5 of humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC (violent incidents, epidemics, natural catastrophes, etc.) and analyze their potential impact on humanitarian Causes of Displacement 6 operations. These interviews take place with local administrative officials, customary representatives, Ituri 6 health personnel, military and armed group representatives, and humanitarian response workers North Kivu 6 active in Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Tanganyika, South Kivu 8 and Maniema. The CHAT also makes use of a wide- range of secondary sources from the humanitarian community and academic research. All information Acute Needs in Priority Zones 9 in the report undergoes a process of triangulation before analysis and dissemination. The information presented in this report is subject Conclusion 10 to change upon publishing due to the fast- changing conditions in the region. If you have any comments or information you would like the CHAT to follow up on, please fill out this form here: https://forms.gle/Yju4JQG8m76QsMeD7 In North Kivu, the surrender of 485 fighters1 from Bwira’s faction in August following Nduma INTRODUCTION Defense of Congo-Rénové (NDC-R)’s schism in July did not bring about lasting stability. Instead, competition from other armed groups (FPC, APCLS, Nyatura, FPI, and FDLR) aimed at reclaiming areas previously under the control of NDC-R. FARDC operations in Walikale, Beni, and Rutshuru have unfortunately not been sufficiently robust to maintain stability. In August, approximately 64,175 people were displaced in eastern Democratic Republic In South Kivu, the security situation was less of Congo (DRC), and this number includes violent during the month of August; nevertheless, new displacements and those that continued conflict between pastoralists and herders still during the month of August. Across the board, occurred in Fizi, Mwenga, and Uivra, creating these displacements were caused by insecurity waves of displacement. These inter-communal stemming from armed group activity. In its role as conflicts are supported by different Mai Mai the purveyor of displacement alerts, the Congo factions that oppose each other to “defend” Humanitarian Analysis Team (CHAT) decided to the interests of their communities.2 In the investigate the link between displacement trends highlands of Minembwe and Itombe, the period and their causes in its monthly analysis. of transhumance tends to create confrontation between armed groups, with the Ngumino/ During the month of August, Ituri experienced Twiraneho coalition opposing the Mai Mai after the highest number of people displaced, mainly chasing stolen cattle. In Shabunda and Kalehe, due to the 287 attacks conducted there by armed the FARDC’s departure allowed Raia Mutomboki groups in the last month. Despite the announced to reclaim areas they previously controlled and demobilization of the Coalition for the Defense continue committing abuses against civilians. A of Eastern Congo (CODECO), multiple factions return to CRND incursions was also reported in of this group were particularly active at the August. beginning of the month in mining areas. The Sambaza faction attempted to put pressure on In Maniema, the loss of revenue from mining, demobilization negotiations by carrying out an particularly in the territories of Kabambare incursion into the town of Bunia. Their withdrawal and Salamabila, resulted in an increase in following negotiations with the Armed Forces predation by Mai Mai Malaika. However, the of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) CHAT recorded no incidents of large population resulted in injuries, thefts, and displacement from movement. In Manono territory, Tanganyika, the peripheries to the center of the city. the transition from MONUSCO to state security forces could herald a deterioration in the security Inter-communal tensions between the Patriotic situation in the future. The Mai Mai Apa Na and Integrationist Forces of Congo (FPIC), Pale, Mai Mai Yakutumba, and Mai Mai Malaika now allied with CODECO, in support of the coalition continued their exactions, but likewise Bira community and the Zaïrois armed group without causing major population displacement. in support of the Hema persisted as a source of insecurity. The province also experienced numerous incursions into the south, with the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) fleeing FARDC operations in Beni, North Kivu. In Aru, incursions by the South Sudanese People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) put locals at risk of reprisals after they were accused of supporting other South Sudanese armed groups. 1 Numbers as of 17 August 2020 2 Bafuliro, Babembe, and Banyamulenge. CONGO HUMANITARIAN ANALYSIS TEAM August 2020 Monthly Report 1 Displacement Alerts Bunia 1-31 August 2020 Ituri Uganda North Kivu Goma Rwanda Bukavu South Kivu Burundi LEGEND Territories with conflict provoking displacement Host communities of new or continuing displacement in August Tanzania CONGO HUMANITARIAN ANALYSIS TEAM August 2020 Monthly Report 2 Province Territory Groupement Locality Individuals Demographic Cause Pressure Ituri Irumu Bandavilemba Bwanasura 16,850 49% Armed Conflict North Kivu Walikale Waloa-Loanda Makungurano, 10,555 21% Armed Conflict Chambucha, Lukaraba, Kiuli, Hombo Nord North Kivu Walikale Waloa-Loanda Biriko et Busu- 8,425 16% Armed Conflict lungi North Kivu Masisi Ufamandu I Miano 6,550 20% Armed Conflict Kambuobe North Kivu Masisi Bashali Mokoto Lukweti 6,215 44% Armed Conflict North Kivu Beni Bambuba Kisiki Eringeti 3,135 13% Armed Conflict North Kivu Beni Bolema Kyavitumbi 7,795 20% Armed Conflict North Kivu Masisi Bashali Mokoto Busumba 2,315 12% Armed Conflict South Kivu Shabunda Basitabiale Kalole 1,2,3,4 2,085 14% Armed Conflict Ituri Irumu Walese-Vonkutu Okalugu/Idohu 1,675 4% Armed Conflict South Kivu Mwenga Basimukidje 1er Bilalombili 850 46% Armed Conflict South Kivu Fizi Basimukidje Kafulo 1,090 21% Armed Conflict South Kivu Kalehe Ziralo Kisha 8,920 22% Armed Conflict CONGO HUMANITARIAN ANALYSIS TEAM August 2020 Monthly Report 3 DISPLACEMENT DYNAMICS Ongoing Population Movement (January-August 2020) 350,000 Total when movement began 300,000 Continuing displacement in August from previous months 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Ongoing Movement (individuals) 50,000 - January February March April May June July August Date Movement Began Source: CHAT Alert data. Totals are estimates based on telephone interviews with key informants conducted within one month of displacement. The orange line represents the difference between new moves and those that began earlier and continued through August. In August approximately 64,175 people were displaced in eastern DRC (including new and continuing displacement in August). A total of 1,127,170 people have been displaced since January 2020. After a review of alerts between April and August, 63% of the alerts remained without returns (an estimate of 218 villages), mostly because of ongoing armed conflict in areas from North and South Kivu. Notably, Masisi, Fizi, and Irumu, where for most villages return remains impossible. CHAT will continue to monitor to better understand the rate of return. Confirmed Displacement During the period under review (1-31 August), the CHAT confirmed 15 population displacements. Of these movements, 13 were identified in North Kivu, five in South Kivu, and two in Ituri. The province of North Kivu recorded most of the alerts for the month of August. More specifically, out of 13 alerts in North Kivu, eight were recorded in Masisi territory, three in Walikale territory, and two in Beni territory. The reasons for these displacements were exclusively the insecurity generated by armed clashes.3 3 520 security incidents were recorded in North Kivu affecting the territories of Nyiragongo, Beni, Walikale, Masisi and Rutshuru. CONGO HUMANITARIAN ANALYSIS TEAM August 2020 Monthly Report 4 Displacement Not Confirmed Needs assessments should include direct consultation with additional sources from the affected community but seperate from those used to triangulate the alert. Displacement information will not be credible when verification of alerts is based on insufficiently diversified resources. This has already begun for responses in the SAFER consortium, and Mercy Corps’ CHAT is supporting this effort. At the same time, CHAT received five displacement Credibility of Alertes (August 2020) alerts deemed not sufficiently credible for sharing. These were: • Nobili in Beni territory, North Kivu: after verification it appears that the latest displacement took place in December and there have been no new waves of IDPs since then. However, there has been a wave of returns due to a respite UNRELIABLE CREDIBLE from violence in Kamango health zone and the 44% 56% surrounding areas, which constitutes a favorable environment for humanitarian actors. It has been reported that some humanitarian interventions in this zone are creating conflict between host families and displaced households. Host families feel discriminated against by aid that is supposedly targeted solely at IDPs. In the long term, this could have a negative impact on interventions, but