SPECIAL SECTION SPECIAL SECTION 16 Health Care Reform: The Denouement POLITICO MONDAY, MAY 17, 2010 MONDAY, MAY 17, 2010 POLITICO Health Care Reform: The Denouement 17 Who Flipped Game changers in health reform hope strategies work at polls BY JOSH KRAUSHAAR They were the difference makers on health care is why I took this vote — I took it for the people of reform: House Democrats who flipped from op- this district because it’s wrong to be dropped for posing the plan to supporting it, delivering a win pre-existing conditions. You shouldn’t be dropped on President Barack Obama’s signature domestic because you’re sick,” Anzalone said. issue. But Democratic consultant Bob Doyle sides with Now, they are also among the Democrats’ most the shaky incumbents. “Health care is a big issue vulnerable incumbents, and none is building a re- for the D.C. press corps and for the national press election message around their famous vote. corps and for the cable networks. But I wouldn’t That runs counter to the advice of Democratic give it outsize weight — jobs and how people per- pollster John Anzalone and House Democratic ceive their economic well-being is the 1,000-pound leaders, who argue incumbents should highlight gorilla, both in our race and nationally.” popular provisions. “I’d go to camera and say this Here’s a look at the paths the incumbents are taking. John Boccieri Allen Boyd Betsy Markey After Markey announced her who say elections don’t matter, I Suzanne Kosmas D-Ohio (16th) D-Fla. (2nd) D-Colo. (4th) support for reform, the National say, talk to the 25-year-olds who D-Fla. (24th) Republican Congressional Com- can now stay on their parents’ Boccieri announced his vote switch Boyd damaged his reelection First-term representative; Cycle Fundraising mittee labeled her “Betsy Margo- health insurance.” Kosmas’s home state of Flori- in a nationally televised press confer- prospects in two ways when he Agriculture and Transpor- 2009-2010, Campaign Committee and Leadership PAC lies-Mezvinsky” — a reference to Nevertheless, Markey must da is teeming with opposition to ence and turned health care into a backed the $940 billion measure: He tation and Infrastructure Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, the contend with disappointment reform. A Mason-Dixon poll in central issue in his reelection bid. enflamed reform opponents and en- committees member Raised congresswoman who lost her seat among former allies in the small- March found only 34 percent of He says he is eager to highlight his dangered his well-earned reputation $1,685,046 after casting a decisive vote for for- business community. One sign Florida voters support it. Among support for health care reform in his as a fiscal hawk. General Election Spent mer President Bill Clinton’s budget. of tension: The U.S. Chamber of seniors, who represent a sizable First-term race against Republican business- 7th term A Republican poll in April showed Opponents: $455,694 While Markey doesn’t raise the Commerce rewarded her first First-term repre- chunk of the district’s voters, representative; man Jim Renacci, who is calling for representative; Boyd trailing little-known GOP oppo- state House Minor- Cash on Hand health reform law often, she has vote against reform with its top sentative; Finan- health care is even more unpop- Agriculture its repeal. Boccieri said most of the Appropriations nent Steve Southerland by 15 points, ity Whip Cory Gardner; $1,250,942 used it to her advantage. She re- legislative award and now is con- cial Services and ular, with just 25 percent sup- Transportation angry phone calls he received dur- and Budget 52 percent to 37 percent. His approval University of Colorado Debts ceived a shout-out from Obama sidering opposing her. Science commit- porting it. and Infrastruc- ing the heat of the health care debate committees rating was an anemic 34 percent — a Regent Tom Lucero $0 on the weekend of the vote, and State Rep. Cory Gardner, the Re- tees member That makes it harder for Kos- ture committees came from out of state. And he’s con- member remarkably low total, given that he’s — after a well-timed appeal — publican front-runner for the 4th mas to completely avoid the is- member vinced there is a “silent majority” of won reelection by double-digit mar- Percentage in the cash poured in. More than 70 District seat, thinks the health care Primary sue, so she takes a straightfor- constituents in the blue-collar 16th Primary gins since his first House race in 1996. Last Election: 56% percent of the $505,000 she raised vote will be the final straw after Opponent: ward approach when it comes District in northeast Ohio, who will Opponent: Boyd is taking a quieter tack — last quarter came in the two Markey’s votes for a cap-and-trade Realtor Paul up. “I’m happy to defend it and General Elec- back him on health care. state Senate releasing four campaign ads that weeks after she backed health energy bill and the stimulus bill. Partyka explain it to people. I believe in tion Opponent: “I have just one question for the per- Minority Leader never mention the issue of health Top 5 Contributors care reform. “Only in Washington can you my heart that it was the right businessman son who wants to take my office: ‘Why Al Lawson care. Two ads focus on his efforts to 2009-2010 She also is promoting the plan’s spend a trillion dollars and say General Election thing to do. It will reveal itself Jim Renacci do you not want the American people secure funding for veterans’ affairs most popular elements. During a you’re saving money. She’s saying Opponents: as a positive step in the right to have the same health insurance General and improve broadband access in EMILY’s List, ActBlue, Brownstein, Hyatt et al., BRIDGE PAC, Operating Engineers Union fundraiser with Vice President that, and people frankly don’t be- restaurateur direction, even though it is not that members of Congress have?’” Election north Florida. Last Report: March 31, 2010 Joe Biden, she said: “To people lieve her,” Gardner said. Craig Miller, perfect,” she told Florida Today. Percentage in Boccieri wondered aloud. “At the end Opponents: “We haven’t had any specific state Rep. Sandy But unlike some of her col- Last Election: of the day, I stand on my record.” funeral home events on health care since the vote, Adams, business- l e a g u e s , K o s m a s h a s n’ t e f fe c t i v e - 55% Renacci, an accountant who made owner Steve but he talks in the community any- woman Karen ly used her vote switch to gen- his fortune managing a series of nurs- Southerland, time it comes up,” said Boyd spokes- Diebel erate fundraising support from ing homes in Ohio, argues that the attorney Bar- man Aaron Blye. “We’ve found that grateful progressive groups. new health care law is hurting small bara Olschner, people are really concerned about Scott Murphy Percentage in Kosmas brought in $263,000 last businesses. airline pilot the economy and jobs right now.” D-N.Y. (20th) Last Election: quarter — a decent total but one “Boccieri’s flip-flop on this bill David Scholl In contrast, his primary challeng- 57% that lagged her past fundraising was unconscionable. It again dem- er, state Senate Minority Leader Al First-term representative; Cycle Fundraising Top 5 performances. onstrates his loyalty lies not with his Percentage in Lawson, is touting his early backing Agriculture and Armed 2009-2010, Campaign Committee and Leadership PAC Contributors Top 5 Republicans face a crowded Top 5 constituents but with Nancy Pelosi,” Last Election: of reform, which he hopes will win Services committees 2009-2010 Contributors primary for the nomination in Contributors Renacci told POLITICO. 62% votes from the district’s sizable lib- member Raised 2009-2010 the 24th District, with restau- 2009-2010 But Renacci’s repeal pitch is im- eral Democratic base in Tallahassee. $3,730,532 ActBlue, Advantage Capital rateur Craig Miller, Winter Park perfect, which could diminish its ef- Top 5 Meanwhile, Republicans are ham- General Election Spent Partners, AmeriPAC: The Brown & Brown, Commissioner Karen Diebel Ironworkers fectiveness. Contributors mering Boyd over the law’s impact Opponent: $2,640,162 Fund for a Greater America, American Col- and state Rep. Sandy Adams in Union, Team- “I would support repeal,” he said, 2009-2010 on one of the district’s largest em- retired Army Cash on Hand Intl Brotherhood of Electrical lege of Cardiol- the hunt. All are planning to at- sters Union, “though I do believe there are some ployers, Sallie Mae. An eleventh- officer Chris Gibson $1,090,368 Workers, Goldman Sachs ogy, EMILY’s tack Kosmas for her health care International very good issues inside the bill — the Blue Dog PAC, hour, education amendment to the Debts List, AmeriPAC: vote. Assn of Fire pre-existing conditions was a good United Parcel reform law barring private compa- Percentage in $257,973 Last Report: March 31, 2010 The Fund for Fighters, piece, and the elimination of caps Service, Pfizer, nies from originating college loans Last Election: 50% Greater America, BRIDGE PAC, on certain illnesses was good. But Lockheed led Sallie Mae to shutter its Winter International Operating Engi- this bill did nothing to take care of Martin, Pricewa- Haven facility — a loss of 700 jobs in Assn of Fire neers Union costs.” terhouseCoopers Florida’s 2nd District. Murphy had no Republican oppo- facturers and paper manufacturers.