180 Space Weather Support for Manned Space Disclaimer 160 Missions: Where We’ve Been, Where We 140 are Now, and Where We Need to Go r e b 120 Although the facts speak for themselves, the spin placed on them m u and other opinions expressed here are those of the author and not N t 100 o necessarily the position or policy of NASA. p s n 80 u S d e 60 h t o o 40 m S 20 0 1985 19 90 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Michael Golightly User-Provider U.S. Manned Mission Scenarios . Past Present Future (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) •Emphasis •Emphasis •Emphasis Ø Space Shuttle Missions Ø International Space Station (ISS) Ø International Space Station (ISS) •Development •Development •Development Ø Space Station Freedom Ø Mars robotic exploration and Ø Manned Mars mission manned Mars mission technology Ø Lunar mission/base (?) development •Advanced Planning •Advanced Planning •Advanced Planning Ø Manned Mars Mission Ø Manned Mars Mission Ø ? Ø Lunar return mission Ø L2 Lagrangian point telescope servicing mission •Requires: •Requires: •Requires: Ø ~ 860 on-orbit hours per year Ø ~ 10600 on-orbit hours per year Ø > 8760 on-orbit hours per year Ø ~ 0 EVAs per year Ø ~ 26 EVAs per year Ø ~ 10-20 EVAs per year 1 . result in Concerns About Space Radiation . and Radiation Environment Enhance- Exposure . ments from Space Weather Activity . Past Present Future Past Present Future (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) •Sources •Sources •Sources •Solar particle events •Solar particle events •Solar particle events Ø Geomagnetically trapped p+ Ø Geomagnetically trapped p+ Ø Geomagnetically trapped p+ Ø Only a concern for the less Ø Concern for most missions Ø Concern for most NASA low- Ø GCR primaries Ø Geomagnetically trapped e- Ø GCR secondaries frequent high-inclination Shuttle Earth orbit missions Ø SPE p+ Ø GCR secondaries Ø SPE p+ missions Ø Concern for any mission outside 1 + the magnetosphere Ø Secondaries, including n0, of Ø SPE p 1 minor importance Ø Secondaries, especially n0, of •Geomagnetic storms in •Geomagnetic storms in •Geomagnetic storms in significant importance conjunction with solar particle conjunction with solar particle conjunction with solar particle •Effects •Effects •Effects events events events Ø Acute radiation effects from high Ø Overall radiation risk greater than Ø Fully quantify all medical risks Ø Reduced geomagnetic cutoffs Ø Reduced geomagnetic cutoffs Ø Concern for most NASA low- Earth orbit missions exposure during a solar particle previously thought (cancer, CNS effects, etc.) Ø Concern for the less frequent mid- Ø Concern for most missions event – BEIR V Ø Biomedical methods to arrest/ and high-inclination Shuttle Ø Increased risk of cancer Ø Increased risk of cancer repair radiation damage missions Ø High LET radiation unique effects Ø In-flight treatment methods •Outer electron belt •Outer electron belt •Outer electron belt (simple, low side-effects, etc) Ø Importance of genomic instability enhancements following enhancements following enhancements following Ø CNS effects (?) geomagnetic disturbances geomagnetic disturbances geomagnetic disturbances Ø Less of a concern for International •Exposures •Exposures •Exposures Ø Not a concern Ø Concern for International Space Ø Not recognized as a concern Station construction and servicing Space Station servicing EVAs Ø Average per crewman Ø Average per crewman Ø Average per crewman EVAs 1.6 mSv 10.9 mSv 41.5 mSv Ø Cumulative exposure Ø Cumulative exposure Ø Cumulative exposure 0.15 man-Sv/y 0.43 man-Sv/y ³ 1 man-Sv/y . requiring Space Radiation Analysis Group . using Operational Space Weather Data . (SRAG) Mission Support . Past Present Future Past Present Future (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) •Concept •Concept •Concept •Space-based •Space-based •Space-based Ø Continuous on-console support Ø Quiet space weather conditions— Ø Routine space weather monitoring Ø GOES Ø GOES Ø GOES from launch through landing limited on-console support (4 is 60% automated, 40% human Ø TIROS/POESS Ø NPOESS Ø Routine space weather monitoring hours per day); on-call during all operator Ø SOHO Ø “Living with a Star” Program off-console periods is 0% automated, 100% human Ø Human support adapted to Ø ACE Ø ISS operator Ø Disturbed space weather mission parameters, position in Ø conditions—on-console support solar cycle, communication Yohkoh during moderate to severe space capability with crew, etc. •Ground-based •Ground-based •Ground-based Ø a weather disturbances Ø Joint international support team Ø H-a Patrol (SEON) Ø H-a Patrol (SEON) H- Patrol (automated) Ø Ø Continuous on-console support (?) Ø Transverse magnetic field images Ø Transverse magnetic field images Magnetometer chains during EVAs (SEON) (SEON) Ø Thule neutron monitor (?) Ø Routine space weather monitoring Ø Magnetometer chains Ø Magnetometer chains Ø SoRBL is 10% automated, 90% human Ø Ø Thule neutron monitor operator Thule neutron monitor Ø Full-disk radio Ø Full-disk radio •Requires •Requires •Requires Ø On-console ~ 870 hours per year Ø On-console ~ 1640 hours per year Ø ? Ø On-call ~ 0 hours per year Ø On-call ~ 7120 hours per year •Cost Savings •Cost Savings Ø Baseline—requires 4 flight Ø Reduced number of flight controllers controllers Ø $960,000 per year 2 . Accessed from the NOAA Space . and viewed on Space Weather Data Environment Center . Displays . Past Present Future Past Present Future (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) •Telnet via modem •Direct data access via TCP/IP •Direct data access via TCP/IP •SELDADS II via modem •Direct access and viewing of •Improved direct access and Ø SELDADS II on a high-speed internet on a priority high-speed Ø Mostly text displays—data space weather data from viewing of space weather data Ø “capture” data scrolled to screen connection internet connection “captured” to local hard disk for custom developed applications and images from custom further use •FTP via modem •Web via high-speed internet •Wireless data access Ø SRAG Space Weather Monitor developed applications Ø Simple static line plots and Alarm + SPE --Real-Time •Teletype connection •Two way communications Ø NOAA IDS Ø Simple real-time line plots Ø SEC_Display •Fax •Anonymous FTP from anywhere Ø Integrate space weather data into Ø Only 1 plot available at a time •Populating databases/data other radiation environment •Paper products •? Ø Space weather data had to be re- objects with data obtained by displays entered or imported into other •Extracting data from XML- •Satellite broadcast applications for viewing anonymous FTP based Web pages and Ø Not used for manned mission •Solar images viewed offline Ø Solar Active Region Display support with FTS viewer application •Multiple datasets, historical displaying or using in customized applications Ø Only 1 image viewable at a time and real-time data plots via Web Ø Require current space weather •Rely on displays built by others Web sites to convert HTML -based •Multiple image viewing via products to XML Web Ø Need for a community set of •Build unique, customized tag/attribute standards displays and applications •WAP compatible data sources •Cost Savings •Cost Savings •High fidelity simulated space Ø Baseline—0 programmers Ø Increased number of programmers weather data Ø -$360,000 per year Ø NOAA DSS . as well as Space Weather Nowcasts and . as well as Space Weather Nowcasts and Forecasts . Forecasts (cont) . Past Present Future Past Present Future (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) (Cycle 22 Max) (Cycle 23 Max) (Cycle 24 Max) •Solar Particle Event •Solar Particle Event •Solar Particle Event •Geomagnetic Disturbances •Geomagnetic Disturbances •Geomagnetic Disturbances Ø 3-day event probability forecast — Ø 3-day event probability forecast — Ø Improved 3-day event probability Ø 3-day event probability forecast from Ø Observation of potentially geo- Ø Improved prediction of magnetic subjective subjective forecast recurrence—subjective effective coronal holes storm on-set time from Ø Prediction of SPE based on “big- Ø Prediction of SPE based on “big- Ø Improved prediction of Ø No real capability to predict very Ø Indication of ejected material from improvements in interplanetary flare” occurrence flare” occurrence and/or CME interplanetary shock propagation large events “halo CMEs” shock propagation models Ø Some warning of shock formation observation (e.g., shock arrival) Ø General indication of ejected solar Ø 3-day event probability forecast from Ø Improved prediction of magnetic from radio bursts Ø Some warning of shock formation Ø Improved prediction of SPE based plasma from observation of recurrence, “halo CMEs,” and storm intensity from improved Ø Model prediction of on-set time, from radio bursts following “big-flare” occurrence disappearing filaments coronal holes observations knowledge of CME properties peak flux, time of peak flux Ø Model prediction of on-set time, Ø Detection and tracking of event Ø Monitor progression of event from Ø Prediction of very large events— Ø Prediction of very large events—will Ø Subjective prediction of shock peak flux, time of peak flux progression from GOES particle magnetometers subjective depend on availability of CME arrival and magnitude Ø Subjective prediction of shock detectors monitoring Ø Detection and tracking of event arrival and magnitude Ø ?—additional observation, •Outer Electron Belt •Outer Electron Belt •Outer Electron Belt progression from GOES particle Ø Upstream detection of shock arrival monitoring, and forecast Enhancements Enhancements Enhancements detectors from ACE particle and solar wind improvements will depend on Ø No forecast capability Ø General forecast capability based on Ø Predict magnitude of Ø monitors availability of follow-on spacecraft Indication of very-high energy predicted geomagnetic disturbances- Ø to SOHO, TRACE, ACE, etc.