Municipal Comprehensive Review City of Brampton INITIAL FINDINGS June 22, 2015 Today We Will Discuss • Initial findings of the Municipal Comprehensive Review (()MCR) • Uppydate on the City’s 2031 and 2041 pppopulation and employment forecasts 2 Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) • Conversion of employment lands to non- emppyloyment uses is onl ypy permitted throu gh a municipally initiated MCR • MCR initiated in 2014 • 13 requests for conversion to non-employment uses 3 Population and Employment Forecasts • April 2014 – Staff Report on updated Population and Emppyloyment forecasts for Bram pton resultin g from the Peel Allocation exercise • The 2041 forecasts were not endorsed by Council, subject to determining impact on activity rate 4 Peel Allocation Indicates Continued Rapid Growth to 2041 HISTORICAL & FORECAST POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT CITY OF BRAMPTON , 2001-2041 (000s) 1000 Population 919 900 Employment 833 800 706 700 600 545 500 400 340 329 296 300 242 200 172 134 100 0 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 5 Initial Findings of the MCR: Activity Rate ACTIVITY RATE FORECAST • Gradual PEEL REGION AND MUNICIPALITIES , 2011 - 2041 increase in the 70% 2011 67% 2031 64% 64% activity rate 60% 2041 from 33% in 55% 50% 51% 51% 2011 to 37% in 50% 45% 2041 40% 37% 37% 38% 33% • Considered 30% “no substantial 20% impact” 10% 0% Brampton Mississauga Caledon Peel SHSource: Hemson CltiLtdbdConsulting Ltd. based on Stati sti cs Cana da da ta. 6 Brampton Has a Low Activity Rate Compared to Other Large Municipalities ACTIVITY RATES GTAH & SELECTED LOWER TIER MUNICIPALITIES , 2011 Mississauga Vaughan Toronto Burlington GTAH Markham Hamilton Caledon Milton Whitby Halton Hills Brampton Communities with Concentrated East Gwillimbury ElEmploymen t and NNtet-In Commuti ng Calrington Communities with Significant Net-Out Commuting Georgina 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 7 Initial Findings of the MCR: Land Supply • Important to protect as much employment land as possible • Residential suppl y is ade quate to meet forecast 8 Planned Residential Supply Is Sufficient to Accommodate Policy Forecast HOUSING POTENTIAL CITY OF BRAMPTON , 2011-2041 (000s) 75 70 Apartment Units Ground Related Units 65 6,100 60 55 50 45 40 35 25,400 30 59, 500 25 20 15 10 19,100 5 0 Greenfield Area Built-up Area Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 9 Initial Findings of the MCR: Heritage Heights Heritage Heights: Although there are no approved land designations, it is to be planned for 300 ha of employment land • Heritage Heights should be planned to designate a minimum of 300 net ha of employment land 10 Recommendations • Brampton has sufficient land and intensification opportunities to accommodate future housing growth • Limited supply of employment lands. There should be minimal conversion of employment lands, particularly in Bram East and Hwy 10 • A minimum of 300 net ha of employment land is required in Heritage Heights 11 Recommendations • 2041 Population and employment forecasts allocated to Brampton will not substantially affect the activity rate • Once the Office Strategy has progressed, staff will report back on the conversion requests 12.