Glengory Road Mixed Use Market Study – March 2009 Regional Economic Assessment of the N3: Keeversfontein to Warden (De Beers Pass) MARKET RESEARCH FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS December 2011 DEMACON Market Studies PO BOX 95530 WATERKLOOF 0145 Tel: +27 12 460 7009 Fax: +27 12 346 5883 Cell: +27 82 898 8667 e-mail: [email protected] www.demacon.co.za Regional Economic Assessment of the N3: Keeversfontein to Warden (De Beers Pass) – December, 2011 DEMACON is a member of SOUTH AFRICAN PROPERTY OWNERS ASSOCIATION (SAPOA) SOUTH AFRICAN COUNCIL OF SHOPPING CENTRES (SACSC) The information contained in this report has been compiled with the utmost care and accuracy within the parameters specified in this document. Any decision based on the contents of this report is, however, the sole responsibility of the decision maker. Enquiries: Hein du Toit +27 12 460 7009 (t) +27 12 346 5883 (f) +27 82 898 8667 [email protected] www.demacon.co.za i Regional Economic Assessment of the N3: Keeversfontein to Warden (De Beers Pass) – December, 2011 TABLE OF CONTENT CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 5 1.1 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................... 5 1.2 PROJECT BRIEF ........................................................................................................ 5 1.3 PROJECT METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 7 1.4 LOCATION OF THE STUDY AREA............................................................................. 9 1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT ................................................................................ 9 CHAPTER 2: QUALITATIVE LOCATION ASSESSMENT ...................................................... 11 2.1 STUDY AREA DELINEATION AND HISTORY .......................................................... 11 2.1.1 WARDEN ............................................................................................................. 11 2.1.2 HARRISMITH ...................................................................................................... 11 2.1.3 SWINBURNE ....................................................................................................... 14 2.1.4 VAN REENEN ..................................................................................................... 15 2.2 REGIONAL CONTEXT ............................................................................................. 15 2.2.1 THABO MOFUTSANAYANA DISTRICT MUNICIPAL AREA................................ 15 2.2.2 UTHUKELA DISTRICT MUNICIPAL AREA .......................................................... 18 2.3 SYNTHESIS ............................................................................................................. 24 CHAPTER 3: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ................................................................................ 25 3.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 25 3.2 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF LOCAL ECONOMIES .............................................. 25 3.2.1 POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE .................................. 25 3.2.1.1 LOCAL ECONOMY POPULATION ORDER SIZES ............................................. 25 3.2.1.2 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG LOCAL ECONOMY ......................................................... 26 3.2.1.2 PHUMELELA LOCAL ECONOMY ....................................................................... 27 3.2.1.3 OKHAHLAMBA LOCAL ECONOMY .................................................................... 29 3.2.2 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH ..................................................... 32 3.2.3 IMPACT OF HIV / AIDS ....................................................................................... 33 3.2.4 EMPLOYMENT STATUS ..................................................................................... 34 3.2.4.1 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG LOCAL ECONOMY ......................................................... 34 3.2.4.2 PHUMELELA LOCAL ECONOMY ....................................................................... 35 3.2.4.3 OKHAHLAMBA LOCAL ECONOMY .................................................................... 35 3.2.5 INCOME AND EXPENDITURE ............................................................................ 36 3.2.5.1 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG LOCAL ECONOMY ......................................................... 36 3.2.5.2 PHUMELELA LOCAL ECONOMY ....................................................................... 37 3.2.5.3 OKHAHLAMBA LOCAL ECONOMY .................................................................... 38 3.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF STUDY AREA ..................................................... 41 3.3.1 STUDY AREA SIZE ............................................................................................. 41 3.3.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE ............................................................................ 43 3.4 SYNTHESIS ............................................................................................................. 46 CHAPTER 4: ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PERFORMANCE .................................................. 51 4.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 51 4.2 REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS ............................................................................. 51 4.2.1 LOCAL ECONOMY ORDER SIZES ..................................................................... 51 4.2.2 SIZE OF MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG AND PHUMELELA LOCAL ECONOMIES ......... 52 4.2.3 SIZE OF OKHAHLAMBA LOCAL ECONOMY ..................................................... 53 4.2.4 SIZE OF THE SELECTED TOWN ECONOMIES ................................................. 53 2 Regional Economic Assessment of the N3: Keeversfontein to Warden (De Beers Pass) – December, 2011 4.2.4.1 ORDER SIZE OF TOWN ECONOMIES, 2010 ..................................................... 53 4.2.4.2 SIZE OF THE TOWNS WITH REFERENCE TO THE APPLICABLE LOCAL MUNICIPAL ECONOMIES, 2010 .................................................................................... 54 4.3 SECTORAL COMPOSITION AND LEVEL OF DIVERSITY ....................................... 56 4.4 SECTORAL PROFILE –GVA BASED ....................................................................... 57 4.4.1 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG SECTORAL PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION)............... 58 4.4.2 PHUMELELA SECTORAL PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION) ............................ 59 4.4.3 OKHAHLAMBA SECTORAL PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION) ......................... 60 4.4.4 SELECTED TOWNS SECTORAL PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION) ................. 61 4.4.4.1 HARRISMITH SECTOR PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION) ................................ 61 4.4.4.2 WARDEN SECTOR PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION) ...................................... 62 4.4.4.3 VAN REENEN SECTOR PROFILE (GVA CONTRIBUTION) ............................... 63 4.5 REGIONAL GROWTH TRENDS ............................................................................... 72 4.5.1 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG AND PHUMELELA ECONOMIC GROWTH TRENDS...... 72 4.5.2 OKHAHLAMBA AND PHUMELELA ECONOMIC GROWTH TRENDS ................ 72 4.6 LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT ................................................................................. 74 4.6.1.1 LOCAL ECONOMY ORDER SIZE – FORMAL AND INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT, 2010 75 4.6.1.2 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG AND PHUMELELA LABOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO DISTRICT ECONOMY, 2010 ........................................................................................... 76 4.6.1.3 OKHAHLAMBA LABOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO DISTRICT ECONOMY, 2010 .. 77 4.6.2 SIZE OF THE SELECTED TOWN ECONOMIES IN TERMS OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................................................... 78 4.6.2.1 ORDER SIZE OF TOWN ECONOMIES – TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, 2010 ............ 78 4.6.2.2 SIZE OF THE TOWNS WITH REFERENCE TO THE APPLICABLE LOCAL MUNICIPAL ECONOMIES IN TERMS OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, 2010 ....................... 78 4.7 SECTORAL PROFILE - EMPLOYMENT............................................................................. 79 4.7.1 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG EMPLOYMENT SECTORAL PROFILE ........................... 80 4.7.2 PHUMELELA EMPLOYMENT SECTORAL PROFILE ......................................... 81 4.7.3 OKHAHLAMBA EMPLOYMENT SECTORAL PROFILE ...................................... 82 4.7.4 SELECTED TOWNS SECTORAL PROFILE (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT CONTRIBUTION) ............................................................................................................ 83 4.7.4.1 HARRISMITH SECTOR PROFILE (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT CONTRIBUTION)... 83 4.7.4.2 WARDEN SECTOR PROFILE (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT CONTRIBUTION) ......... 83 4.7.4.3 VAN REENEN SECTOR PROFILE (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT CONTRIBUTION) .. 84 4.8 LABOUR FORCE GROWTH TRENDS ..................................................................... 84 4.9 SKILLS BASE AND GROWTH TRENDS ................................................................... 85 4.9.1 MALUTI-A-PHOFUNG SKILLS BASE AND GROWTH ........................................ 86 4.9.2 PHUMELELA SKILLS BASE AND GROWTH ...................................................... 87 4.9.3 OKHAHLAMBA SKILLS BASE AND GROWTH ................................................... 88 4.10 SECTORAL GVA AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS .................................... 88 4.11 COMPETITIVE AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ANALYSIS 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