Space Commercialization in the Next Decade - Economic Risk or Opportunity Steve Apfel Boeing Integrated Defense Systems 12 November 2007 Presented at Reach for Space 2007 Conference Washington DC Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Space Commercialization – Communications Example § Space Commercialization in communications has been successful – TV, Radio, regional direct to home internet , internet data trunking, regional and global mobile phone and data services – Commercial provision of government communications has been a win win for Government and commercial operators § There have also been failures – Iridium, Globalstar, ICO - all are in existence with new business plans – Teledesic, Astrolink and others never got out of development stage – $ Billions of dollars lost on failed ventures in the late 90’s Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 2 Boeing’s Commercial & Civil Communications Satellites 601HP 2000 Galaxy XR Intelsat IV ATS 1997 PAS-5 2000 SUPERBIRD-4 2000 PAS-9 1971 1966 Intelsat II 1997 Astra 1G 2001 PAX-10 1966 Intelsat l 1997 Galaxy VIII-i 1998 Astra 2A 2001 Astra 2C (Early Bird) 1998 SatMex 5 2001 DIRECTV-4S 1965 2003 Galaxy XIII TACSAT 1998 Orion 3 Intelsat IVA 333 1998 PAS-6B 2003 AsiaSat 4 1972 Anik A 1969 Syncom 2005 GOES-N 1975 1999 AsiaSat 3S 1974 Westar 1963 1999 Astra 1H 2005 MEASAT-3 1976 Palapa A 1999 DIRECTV 2007 GOES-O 1-R, IVR 2008 GOES-P Marisat 601 Mobile 1976 1995 AMSC 1996 MSAT Comstar Intelsat VI 393/376W 376HP 1976 1989 1989 JCSAT (393) 1996 MEASAT 2 1990 SBS 6 (393) 1997 Thor II 2000 Brasilsat B4 1998 Sirius 3 Leasat 1998 Bonum 1 2000 Astra 2D GEM 1984 2003 e-BIRD 2000 Thuraya 2005 MEASATt 3 2003 Thuraya-2 376 2007 Thuraya-3 2008 MSV 1-2 1980 SBS 1 1985 Morelos A, B 601 1981 SBS 2 1985 Telstar 3C 1992 Optus B1 1982 Westar IV, V 1992 Galaxy VII 702 1985 AUSSAT A1, A2 1999 Galaxy XI 1982 Anik C3, D1 1987 Palapa-B2P 1993 Astra 1C 1982 SBS 3 F2 1994 APSTAR 1 1993 Galaxy IV 2000 PAS-1R, 9 1987 Aussat A3 2000 Anik F1 1983 Anik C2 1988 SBS 5 F5 1994 Brasilsat B1 1993 Solidaridad 1 2001 XM-1, -2 1983 Palapa B1 1989 BSB 1994 THAICOM 2 1993 DIRECTV 1 1983 Telstar 3A 1995 Brasilsat B2 1994 PAS-2 1995 Astra 1E 2002 Galaxy IIIC 1990 AsiaSat 1 2004 Anik F2 1983 Galaxy I, II 1990 Palapa B2R 1996 MEASAT 1 1994 DIRECTV 2 1995 Galaxy III-R 1984 SBS 4 F4 1996 Galaxy IX 1994 Optus B3 1996 Palapa C1 2005 XM-3 1990 BSB-2 2005 Spaceway F1, F2 1984 Telstar 3B 1990 Galaxy VI 1996 APSTAR IA 1994 Solidaridad 2 1996 PAS-3R 1999 TDRS-H 2005 NewSkies-8 1984 Galaxy III 1992 Galaxy V 1997 BSAT-1a 1994 Astra 1D 1996 Astra 1F 1999 JCSAT 6 2006 XM-4 1984 Anik D2 1992 Palapa-B4 1998 Brasilsat B3 1995 MSAT-2 1996 MSAT-1 2002 TDRS I, J 1985 Brasilsat A 1998 BSAT-1b 1995 DIRECTV 3 1996 Palapa-C2 2002 JCSAT 8 2007 DIRECTV-10 1993 THAICOM 1 2007 Spaceway F3 1985 Anik C1 1994 Galaxy I-R 1998 Thor III 1995 PAS-4 1997 JCSAT-4, -5 2004 Superbird-6 Copyright © 2006 Boeing. 2002 Hellas-Sat 1995 JCSAT-3 1997 Superbird C 2007/8 DIRECTV-11 LPoage 2 0306000675 rev 011806 Page 3 2002 Astra 3A Every Current Service Sector is Rapidly Evolving Full Coming Mesh Greatly Increased Online New Services Now in HDTV Operation Capacity Reduced Broadband Multimedia Terminal Sizes, Return Channel for Mobile Fixed Ka-band HDTV broadcast Broadcast Broadcast Mobile Video Fully flexible beams & Mobile bandwidth, Fully flexibleOnbo beamsard Network Centric Ops Fully flexibleRo ubandwidthter, IP Based Systems Optical Milsatcom Optical Crosslinks Crosslinks Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 4 Market Forces are Driving Products General Trends Reduced Higher power, more standard, Terminal more flexible satellites: Sizes Any bandwidth, anywhere, Mobility any time Increased Satellite Bandwidth Bandwidth Intensive Flexible Beams Applications Bandwidth Efficient Modulation, Flexible Compression Network Bandwidth Centric Operations Standard, Flexible Flexible Signal Payloads Routing Business Flexibility, Deployment Satellite Predictability Communications Trends Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 5 A Vision of the Future for Communication Satellites Highly Reconfigurable Satellites with Flexible Payloads Operating Mode 1 Operating Mode 2 Operating Mode 3 Example: commercial & Example: commercial spot Example: commercial government spot beams and beams for underserved telecom services and video video distribution regional regions and surge capability distribution in US beams (Olympics, World Cup, natural disaster) Operating Mode 4 Example: On-orbit backup for multiple satellites A single satellite design can serve multiple orbit slots Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 6 WhInattr oadbuocuttio thne/T fhuetusrise ? § What are some of the potential new markets in space ? – Satellite servicing – Orbital Express and others – Tourism – Sub orbital, orbital and Hotels – Materials processing - TBD § All new frontiers open up with new opportunities when the price of bringing the “middle class” is affordable – The “new world” – The “West” – Automobiles – Commercial Aircraft – Commercial spacecraft ?? § Space is still a new frontier 50+ years after the first exploration Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 7 Satellite servicing – Orbital Express and others § Servicing types – Refueling – does it make economic sense ? § Launch Vehicle underperformance insurance § Cost of getting the fuel to the S/C § Desire or requirement for an upgraded capability § Economics of the satellite propulsion system – Repair and replace § Failed component replacement § Penalty (?) for line replaceable unit design § Timing of replacement – Deployment issues repair § Risk of making things worse – Anomaly resolution – “look but do not touch” Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 8 OE Firsts FIRST fully autonomous capture & servicing of a satellite from 200 km range without client assistance FIRST fully autonomous on-board navigation & guidance to approach & stationkeep within 10 cm of client using passive, targetless systems FIRST on-orbit use of embedded IEEE 1394 (Firewire) Active Half of Passive Half of Capture Mechanism Capture Mechanism spacecraft network – enables computer ORU transfer FIRST fully autonomous “soft” capture of a satellite while stationkeeping FIRST fully autonomous transfer of a component from one vehicle to another using advanced robotics FIRST fully autonomous transfer of propellant from one vehicle to another on orbit with US technology Free Flyer Capture FIRST fully autonomous capture of free flying vehicle & component transfer using closed-loop servo vision system with autonomous fault recovery Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 9 Tourism – Sub orbital, orbital and Hotels § When will I get to go ? – Price point needs to be at upper middle class affordability – $10000 ? – that’s what my wife told me…. § Insurance, indemnification, failures – How will these affect the business case and the market – Can this fledging business survive in today’s litigious environment § Small commercial aircraft market is good analogy Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 10 Zero G Materials processing § What, how much, why ? § How do we even get the knowledge of what can be done ? – Space station not ideal for zero g – Lower cost transportation is key Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 11 What does the past tell us about the risks and opportunities ? § Is there a business plan that makes sense ? § Is the technology at a sufficient technology readiness level for a commercial activity ? § Is there an non served or underserved need that a space system could fulfill ? § And the (much?) farther future – Space Power to the Earth Copyright © 2006 Boeing. Page 12.