IFPRI Discussion Paper 01790 December 2018 Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation Options for Colombia Francisco Boshell Timothy S. Thomas Vijay Nazareth Nicola Cenacchi Environment and Production Technology Division INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), established in 1975, provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to foster a climate-resilient and sustainable food supply; promote healthy diets and nutrition for all; build inclusive and efficient markets, trade systems, and food industries; transform agricultural and rural economies; and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is integrated in all the Institute’s work. Partnerships, communications, capacity strengthening, and data and knowledge management are essential components to translate IFPRI’s research from action to impact. The Institute’s regional and country programs play a critical role in responding to demand for food policy research and in delivering holistic support for country-led development. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world. AUTHORS Dr. Timothy S. Thomas ([email protected]) is a Research Fellow in the Environment and Production Technology Division of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC. Francisco Boshell ([email protected]) was the Technical Director at ECOSAGA SAS, Colombia, at the time of writing this discussion paper. Vijay Nazareth was a Research Analyst in IFPRI’s Environment and Production Technology Division at the time of writing this discussion paper. Nicola Cenacchi ([email protected]) is a Senior Research Analyst in IFPRI’s Environment and Production Technology Division, Washington DC. Notices 1 IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results and are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. They have not been subject to a formal external review via IFPRI’s Publications Review Committee. Any opinions stated herein are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI. 2 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the map(s) herein do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) or its partners and contributors. 3 Copyright remains with the authors. The authors are free to proceed, without further IFPRI permission, to publish this paper, or any revised version of it, in outlets such as journals, books, and other publications. Abstract Climate change is already affecting the global economy between catastrophic losses from extreme weather events to the subtler losses in agricultural productivity. In the decades to come, the effects of climate change will increase. Now is the time for policymakers to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture so that they might make appropriate investments and implement effective policies to help farmers better adapt to climate change. This discussion paper uses multiple models to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in Colombia up to 2050. Some of the analysis is at a very fine geographic resolution, while other is at the national level. The biophysical models used here project modest impacts of climate change on rice and maize, at a cost of around 10 percent of national production. Losses to sugarcane are projected to be much higher, at around 28 percent. Recommendations are made for how policymakers might reduce the losses to these crops and others included in the analysis presented in this paper. iii Acknowledgments This work was implemented and undertaken as part of • The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. • The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). PIM is in turn supported by donors. For details please visit http://pim.cgiar.org/donors/. This work was also supported through funding by • The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). • The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). • The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) We would also like to thank various colleagues who helped in diverse ways, including Keith Wiebe, Tim Sulser, Sherman Robinson, Ricky Robertson, Ho Young Kwon, and Milcah Prasad. The opinions and views expressed here belong to the authors and may not be attributed to nor be taken to reflect the official opinions of BMGF, CCAFS, CGIAR, CIAT, IDB, IFPRI, PIM, or any of their respective donors or affiliates. iv Introduction Climate change will affect the Colombian agriculture sector in increasing measure in the coming decades, so it is important for policymakers to better understand how agriculture will be impacted and what can be done to help farmers adapt. This discussion paper uses multiple models to give fine- resolution spatial analysis of the effects on various crops and then examine what those changes will amount to at the national level, taking into consideration changes in global supply and demand as all of countries deal with population growth, income growth, and climate change. Colombia is the gateway to South America. It borders Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, and Venezuela, as well as the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Colombia is ecologically diverse, ranging from coastal zones to the Andes ranges, and from the grasslands of the Llanos to the forests of the Amazon basin. It has great agricultural potential. However, Colombia has coped with an internal armed conflict for more than 60 years, leaving a large number of victims.1 The conflict has influenced and been influenced by important political, social, and economic issues, including social inequality, lack of formal governance in parts of the country, drug trafficking, corruption, illegal economic activity, and poverty. A peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People's Army (FARC–EP) was signed at the end of 2016 which was meant not just to end conflict by to address some of the related issues. Progress was made in implementing the agreement in 2017, but 2018 has seen an increase in violence and some uncertainty about how the peace process might proceed. In the next section, we next look at Colombia’s economic and demographic trends. This is followed by a section giving an overview of its climate in terms of both what Colombia experienced in the second half of the 20th century and what is projected for Colombia through the middle of the 21st century. We then review the current situation for the AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use) sector and present what the models suggest will happen to these sectors with climate change. As part of this analysis, we make recommendations for adaptation measures to help farmers adjust to climate change. Economic and Demographic Conditions and Projections Climate change is only one of the important trends that will affect the well-being of the nation by 2050. At the same time the climate is changing, GDP will be growing, and population will also grow, though most likely at a more modest rate than GDP. Figure 1 shows one system for dividing the country into ecologically defined regions, which include the Pacific region, a relatively narrow swath of land bordering the Pacific Ocean; the Caribbean region, a similarly narrow stretch of land on the Caribbean Sea; the Andes region, which encompasses the Andes ranges, and the valley between; the Orinoco region, known as the Llanos, a large relatively flat, low-lying grassland area around the top of the watershed for the Orinoco River; and the Amazon region, which is a large, mostly forested area at the top of the watershed for the Amazon River and its tributaries. 1 To understand more about the conflict, see Parra (2015), Rangel (1999), Clavijo (1998), and Duncan (2006). 1 The 32 departments of Colombia, the country’s highest-level administrative areas, are outlined within the figure. They do not cleanly fit within the ecological regions, though many do lie completely within a given region. Figure 2 is an elevation map of Colombia. The country rises from sea level at the coast very rapidly to the highest point, Pico Cristóbal Colón, at 5,700 meters, located on the coast and ironically not part of the Andes zone but within the Caribbean zone. Nevertheless, the highest peak in the Andes zone, Volcán Nevado del Huila, is still an impressive 5,470 meters. The majority of the eastern half of the country is relatively flat, most of which is 300 meters or less in elevation. Other areas with relatively even terrain include most of the coastal areas, as well as the valleys between the Andes ranges. Population Past and Present Figure 3 shows demographic trends for the last four decades. The relatively high population growth rate of 1.9 percent per year over the entire period is slightly slower in the second two decades than in the first two. Also, the rural population growth rate was remarkably slow, rising by only 21 percent over 42 years, or 0.45 percent per year. This slow growth is probably caused by the long-standing civil war and better economic opportunities in urban centers. Colombia’s high total growth is the result of its very high rate of urbanization, which is around 75 percent. Figure 4 shows the distribution of the population throughout the country. Most of the population lives in the Andes region, with the Caribbean region second, followed by the Pacific region, the Orinoco region, and finally the Amazon region. Future Figure 5 shows projections used by the IPCC's AR5 for population growth under the five SSPs developed for the IPCC analysis of how climate change might affect the global economy and people in general.