THE GEOPOLITICAL SCENE OF THE CAUCASUS A Decade of Perspectives Edited by Diba Nigâr Göksel & Zaur Shiriyev THE GEOPOLITICAL SCENE OF THE CAUCASUS A Decade of Perspectives T Bandrol Uygulamasına İlişkin Usul ve Esaslar Hakkında Yönetmeliğin 5 inci maddesinin ikinci fıkrası çerçevesinde bandrol taşıması zorunlu değildir D. Nigâr Göksel Nigâr Göksel has been Editor-in-Chief of Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) for ten years. In parallel, between 2004 and 2010, she was Senior Analyst working on Turkey and the Caucasus at the European Stability Initiative (ESI) – where she currently works part time on Turkey-EU relations. Her writing focuses on Turkish foreign policy, EU neighborhood policies, democratization and gender rights. Nigâr is a regular contributor to the German Marshall Fund “On Turkey” policy brief series and an alumni of the Black Sea Young Reformers Fellowship. Nigâr has led a number of dialogue initiatives and reconciliation projects involving Turkey and the South Caucasus. Previous to her current affiliations Nigâr worked as Country Director for International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX), Project Manager at Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), and International Relations Coordinator at the ARI Movement. In the late 1990s she worked at the Azerbaijan Embassy in Washington D.C. and the U.S. office of the Turkish Businessmen’s and Industrialists’ Association (TUSIAD). Zaur Shiriyev Zaur Shiriyev is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of Caucasus International, a foreign policy journal that examines policy-making and the role of the Caucasus region in the international arena. He is a senior research fellow in the Foreign Policy Analysis Department at the Baku based think-tank Center for Strategic Studies (SAM), where he has worked since 2009. He writes a weekly column for Today’s Zaman, one of the two main English language newspa- pers of Turkey. Previously in 2004-2008 he was a researcher at the Caucasus- Middle East Department at the Turkish Asian Center for Strategic Studies (TASAM) in Istanbul, and a senior researcher for the Caucasus-Central Asia Department at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK) in Ankara. His areas of expertise include security issues and EU policy in the Black Sea region, conflict resolution in post-Soviet space, Turkish foreign policy, and the foreign and national security policies of the South Caucasus states, with an emphasis on the domestic determinants of such policies. THE GEOPOLITICAL SCENE OF THE CAUCASUS A Decade of Perspectives Edited by D. Nigâr Göksel & Zaur Shiriyev The Geopolitical Scene of the Caucasus: A Decade of Perspectives Copyright © Toplumsal Katılım ve Gelişim Vakfı, 2013 Edited by Diba Nigâr Göksel & Zaur Shiriyev Project Coordinator: Acar Erdoğan Project Assistant: Ali Cihan Sarıkaya Cover and Page Design: Tarık Beyhan ISBN 978-605-86165-0-9 First Edition: April 2013 Printed in Turkey Yayımcı: Toplumsal Katılım ve Gelişim Vakfı Küçük Mustafa Paşa mah. Seferikoz sok. No: 14 Kat:1 Cibali - İstanbul Tel: +90 (212) 621 44 42 - 621 92 58 F: +90 (212) 531 87 18 www.turkishpolicy.com Yayımcı Sertifika no: 27718 Baskı: Pasifik Ofset Ltd. Şti. Cihangir mah. Güvercin cad. No:3/1 Baha İş Merkezi A Blok Kat:2 Haramidere, Avcılar 34310 İstanbul Basımcı Sertifika no: 12027 Birinci Baskı - Nisan 2013, İstanbul All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be copied, redistributed, or published without expressed permission in writing from the respective authors.The views reflected here are purely personal and do not represent any institutional viewpoint. Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) is an Istanbul-based journal aiming to foster original thinking and constructive policy debates on Turkey and its neighborhood. The journal has been published on a quarterly basis since 2002. TPQ has a 10-year track record of providing its global audience with balanced, inter-disciplinary, and independent coverage of developments in Turkey and its neighborhood. All the content, articles and information can be accessed at www.turkishpolicy.com Caucasus International (CI) Caucasus International (www.cijournal.org) is a foreign policy journal with offices in Baku and Ankara. Published quarterly since 2011, the jour- nal covers the politics, society, and economy of the Caucasus. CI is the first region-based journal of the Caucasus to foster debate among scholars on Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey. The goal of the journal is to encourage high-quality academic debate on a wide range of issues per- taining to each country of the Caucasus, as well as the region as a whole. CI’s focus on the region and its neighborhood is informed and guided by a strong awareness of the global context. This publication has been made possible with the support of the Center for Strategic Studies (SAM). TABLE OF CONTENTS XIII Preface XV The Authors XXI Introduction I. Global and Regional Players’ Positions Towards the Caucasus Turkish Foreign Policy: Opening New Horizons for Turkey 3 at the Beginning of a New Millennium İsmail Cem The South Caucasus: 11 Where the U.S. and Turkey Succeeded Together Elin Suleymanov Turkish Foreign Policy and the EU in 2010 21 Ahmet Davutoğlu The Caucasus Region: From the Geopolitical Periphery to 29 an Arena of Competitive Interests Sergey Markedonov Azerbaijan and U.S. Interests in the South Caucasus: 51 Twenty Years after Independence Ariel Cohen Weakness as an Opportunity: 83 EU Policy in the South Caucasus Sascha Tamm Independence, Democracy and the Russian Taboo: 93 A Comparative Perspective Tedo Japaridze & Ilia Roubanis Shifting Gears: Georgia’s Persian Gambit and the Logic of 109 Regional Geopolitics Kornely K. Kakachia Zero Problems with Neighbors: The Case of Georgia 123 Ivane Chkhikvadze Azerbaijan-Russia Relations After the Five-Day War: 135 Friendship, Enmity, or Pragmatism? Anar Valiyev II. Trends in Regional Integration and Conflict Resolution Central Asia, the Caucasus, and 21st Century Security 149 Ross Wilson The Caucasus and its Neighborhood: 159 A Region Where Economics and Security Collide Fen Osler Hampson A New Way for the Caspian Region: 169 Cooperation and Integration Elmar Mammadyarov Integration of Transcaucasia: Continued Failure and Hope 179 Tigran Mkrtchyan & Vahram Petrosyan Russia and the Unresolved Conflicts in Eurasia 201 Svante E. Cornell Georgia’s Precarious Security 215 Stephen Blank Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy Since Independence 233 Brenda Shaffer The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in the Aftermath of the 245 Russia-Georgia War Gulshan Pashayeva The Armenian Cause in America, Today 261 Günay Evinch Turkey and Armenia: A Second Chance? 277 Thomas de Waal The Past as a Prison, the Past as a Different Future 285 Gerard J. Libaridian III. Economic Integration, Development, and Energy Security The Emerging Patterns of Azerbaijan’s International Energy 297 Policy: Continuities and Changes Elnur Soltanov Implications of Azerbaijani Gas for the Southern Corridor 311 and European Energy Security Mert Bilgin Turkey and South Stream: Turco-Russian Rapprochement 325 and the Future of the Southern Corridor Cenk Sidar & Gareth Winrow Turco-Caspian Energy Security and the Caucasus: 339 Threats and Opportunities Robert M. Cutler The New Iron Silk Road: The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway 353 Glen E. Howard Armenia and the Tremors of the Crisis 365 Meri Yeranosyan The Global Economic Crisis and Azerbaijan 375 Elshad Mikayilov Preface Spanning the last decade, this collection of articles was originally published in Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ) and Caucasus International (CI). The selec- tions intend to trace the geostrategic course of the South Caucasus region from different perspectives, and to stimulate new thinking about where the region might be headed. For centuries, diverging powers and cultures have met and have influenced each other in this region. For this reason, the contemporary geopolitical dy- namic of the Caucasus poses particular challenges to understanding and en- gagement. As one tries to keep pace with rapid change, one often looses sight of the general trajectory for the region. Thus there is value in remembering some of the viewpoints that have evolved in the past decade. The articles have been included in their original form, with the date of pub- lication noted. To provide some temporal context, following the preface you will find a list of the contributors’ titles – including the title held when the ar- ticles were submitted and the current position each author holds. This allows the reader to consider the views expressed within the context of the authors’ career paths. For over a decade, TPQ has been covering Turkey and its neighborhood. It has always attached particular importance to the Caucasus in its scope. The launching of CI in 2011 was met with enthusiasm and support by TPQ, with its potential to enrich the intellectual debate pertaining to the Caucasus. Committed to providing a forum for open, productive, and respectful dia- logue, both journals have tried to include a wide range of voices in analyz- ing the Caucasus. The two journals have complemented each other in other initiatives as well such as the joint organization of a conference in Baku in Summer 2012, which featured three of the most influential politicians of the 1990’s from each of the South Caucasus countries. We observed that American, Russian, Turkish, and European approaches to the Caucasus rarely habit the same pages. For this collection, we have selected XIII those articles that reflect a timeline and complement one another in terms of portraying a range of standpoints. We have made an effort to be balanced and thorough, but acknowledge that some legitimate and significant perspec- tives are not included. TPQ and CI contain many additional articles that can help foster a stronger understanding of the systemic dynamics experienced in the Caucasus and its adjacent regions – Central Asia, the Black Sea, and the Middle East. For more articles on related topics, we invite all readers to visit www.turkishpolicy.com and www.cijournal.org We would like to thank the Baku-based Center for Strategic Studies (SAM) for giving us the initial idea for this project and for their support in making it possible.