Vol II | Collective Leadership, ASEAN Centrality, and Strengthening the ASEAN Institutional Ecosystem I Collective Leadership, ASEAN Centrality, and Strengthening the ASEAN Institutional Ecosystem ASEAN Vision 2040: Towards a Bolder and Stronger ASEAN Community Volume 2 Published by Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Sentral Senayan 2, 6th floor, Jalan Asia Africa no.8, Central Jakarta 10270 Indonesia © Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, 2019 Published in March 2019 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic or mechanical without prior written notice to and permission from ERIA. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, its Governing Board, Academic Advisory Council, or the institutions and governments they represent. Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted with proper acknowledgement. Cover Art by Artmosphere Design. Book Design by Chrestella Budyanto National Library of Indonesia Cataloguing-in-Publication Data ISBN: 978-602-5460-15-9 II Acknowledgements ASEAN Vision 2040 is a vision of an ASEAN that steps boldly forward towards the year 2040 to transform the ASEAN Community and secure its position in the region and globally. The final report of ASEAN Vision 2040 would have been impossible without the support of 60 experts and specialists in the region (see Appendix). On behalf of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), I would like to thank the experts for sharing their perspectives during the various workshops, round table discussions, and ultimately through their insightful papers. Moreover, I would like to express my gratitude for the cooperation and collaboration of the following institutions during the series of three roundtable discussions held in Jakarta and Bangkok in 2018: Jakarta : The Habibie Center and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia Bangkok : Chulalongkorn University I would like to give special thanks to Dr Suthipand Chirathivat and Dr Piti Srisangnam of the ASEAN Studies Center of Chulalongkorn for the success of the Bangkok roundtable discussion. I am proud of ERIA’s senior researchers who coordinated the activities of the project and the preparation of the ASEAN Vision 2040 report: Senior Economist Dr Ponciano S. Intal, Jr. and Chief Economist Prof Fukunari Kimura. I am also gratified that nearly half of the contributors of this project are ERIA staff members, economists, and policy fellows, who have enriched the discussions with their wealth of knowledge. Vol II | Collective Leadership, ASEAN Centrality, and Strengthening the ASEAN Institutional Ecosystem III This project would not have achieved its noble ambitions without the guidance of its lead coordinators of this project – Dr Shiro Armstrong, Prof Mari Elka Pangestu, Prof Simon Tay, and Senior Advisers Prof Peter Drysdale and Pak Jusuf Wanandi. I am also very grateful for the strong support of Dr Suriya Chindawongse, Director-General of the Department of ASEAN Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Thailand, and H.E. Ambassador Phasporn Sangasubana, the Permanent Representative of the Kingdom of Thailand to ASEAN. ERIA hopes that the recommendations in the report will help ASEAN Member States to step boldly forward and to strengthen ASEAN centrality and community, as the region will face ever greater challenges over the next 2 decades. As always, ERIA is ready to support ASEAN Member States to address the challenges and to realise the ASEAN Vision 2040. Jakarta, March 2019 Hidetoshi Nishimura President Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia IV Appendix. ASEAN Vision 2040 List of Contributors PROJECT LEADERS: Ponciano S. Intal Jr. Fukunari Kimura Senior Economist Chief Economist ERIA ERIA LEAD COORDINATORS: Shiro Armstrong Mari E. Pangestu Director of the Australia–Japan Professor Research Centre Universitas Indonesia Australia National University (ANU) Simon Tay Chairman Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) SENIOR ADVISERS: Peter Drysdale Jusuf Wanandi Professor and Head of the East Vice Chairman of the Board of Asian Bureau of Economic Research Trustees and East Asia Forum Centre for Strategic and Crawford School of Public Policy International Studies (CSIS) Australia National University Foundation Vol II | Collective Leadership, ASEAN Centrality, and Strengthening the ASEAN Institutional Ecosystem V TEAM MEMBERS: Rahimah Abdulrahim Siti Athirah Ali Chair Economist The Habibie Center ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Masahito Ambashi Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Economist Senior Energy Economist ERIA ERIA Jun Arima Ruth Banomyong Senior Policy Fellow on Energy Associate Professor and Environment Thammasat University ERIA Salvador M. Buban Olivier Cadot Policy Fellow Professor ERIA Université de Lausanne Namsuk Choi Chia Siow Yue Assistant Professor Senior Research Fellow Chonbuk National University Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) Kavi Chongkittavorn Yose Rizal Damuri Senior Communication Advisor Head of the Department of ERIA Economics Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Doan Thi Thanh Ha Takafumi Fujisawa Economist Senior Policy Advisor ERIA ERIA Jeremy Gross Shintaro Hamanaka Director of Capacity Building Overseas Research Fellow ERIA Institute of Developing Economies of Japan External Trade Organization (IDE–JETRO) VI Han Phoumin Donald Hanna Energy Economist Group Chief Economist ERIA CIMB Group Gary Hawke Hoe Ee Khor Senior Fellow Chief Economist New Zealand Institute of Economic ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research (NZIER) Research Office (AMRO) Lili Yan Ing Ikumo Isono Lead Advisor to Minister Overseas Research Fellow Ministry of Trade of Indonesia Institute of Developing Economies of Japan External Trade Organization (IDE–JETRO) Fusanori Iwasaki Sufian Jusoh Senior Research Associate Deputy Director ERIA Institute of Malaysia and International Studies Shigeru Kimura Izuru Kobayashi Special Advisor to the President Chief Operating Officer on Energy Affairs ERIA ERIA Jonathan Koh Tat Tsen Michikazu Kojima Managing Director Senior Economist Trade Facilitation Pte Ltd ERIA Osuke Komazawa Abdul Latif Hj. Abu Seman Special Advisor to the President for Deputy Director General Healthcare and Long-Term Care Malaysia Productivity Corporation Policy (MPC) ERIA Hosuk Lee-Makiyama Yanfei Li Director Energy Economist European Centre for International ERIA Political Economy (ECIPE) Vol II | Collective Leadership, ASEAN Centrality, and Strengthening the ASEAN Institutional Ecosystem VII Hank Lim Rebecca Fatima Sta Maria Senior Research Fellow Senior Policy Fellow Singapore Institute of International ERIA Affairs (SIIA) Mitsuhiro Maeda Jayant Menon Professor Lead Economist Advanced Institute of Industrial Asian Development Bank Technology (AIIT) Dionisius A. Narjoko Hidetoshi Nishimura Senior Economist President ERIA ERIA Poh Kam Wong Anita Prakash Professor Director General of Policy Design National University of Singapore Department (NUS) Business School ERIA Rully Prassetya Shirley Ramesh Ph.D Candidate Regional Head Regulatory Affairs George Washington University and Advocacy Nestle Health Science Intan M Ramli Lydia Ruddy Policy Fellow Director of Communications ERIA ERIA Rashesh Shrestha Tae-Shin Kwon Economist President ERIA Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI) Elaine Tan Shujiro Urata Executive Director Senior Research Advisor to the ASEAN Foundation President ERIA VIII Vo Tri Thanh Kazuaki Yamamoto Senior Expert Senior Policy Advisor Central Institute for Economic ERIA Management (CIEM) Mohd Yazid Abdul Majid Fauziah Zen Manager Senior Economist Malaysia Productivity Corporation ERIA Zhang Yunling Director of International Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Vol II | Collective Leadership, ASEAN Centrality, and Strengthening the ASEAN Institutional Ecosystem IX CONTENT Acknowledgements III ASEAN Vision 2040 List of Contributors V Content X Part I 1 ASEAN Present and Future Global and Regional Developments Ponciano S. Intal Jr., Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, and Hank Lim Part II The Imperative of Collective Leadership and ASEAN Centrality 1. Collective Leadership for East Asia and ASEAN’s 34 Trans-Asian Role Shiro Armstrong, Peter Drysdale, and Simon Tay 2. East Asian Cooperation: Retrospect and Prospect 49 Jusuf Wanandi 3. Towards an Integrated and Connected Indo–East 56 Asia Shujiro Urata, Gary Hawke, Anita Prakash, and Mari E. Pangestu 4. Strengthened ASEAN Centrality and East Asia Collective Leadership i. ASEAN Centrality and Collective Leadership: 90 New Dynamics and Responses Simon Tay X ii. Role of Australia and New Zealand in 103 Strengthened ASEAN Centrality and East Asia Collective Leadership Shiro Armstrong iii. Strengthened Centrality of the Association 107 of Southeast Asian Nations and Collective Leadership in East Asia: China’s Role Zhang Yunling iv. ASEAN–India Relations: Foundation for the 126 Future Architecture of Asia Anita Prakash v. Strengthened ASEAN Centrality and East Asia 137 Collective Leadership: Role of Japan–ASEAN Centrality and ASEAN−Japan Cooperation as Development of Heart-to-Heart Diplomacy Hidetoshi Nishimura, Masahito Ambashi, and Fusanori Iwasaki vi. Collective Leadership in East Asia and ASEAN 156 Centrality: Role of the Republic of Korea Tae-Shin Kwon, Namsuk Choi