Project Report Rockford Retail & Residential Market Study Prepared for City of Rockford Community & Economic Development Rockford, Illinois DRAFT Submitted by Economics Research Associates July 3, 2008 ERA Project No. 17716 20 E. Jackson Boulevard Suite 1200 Chicago, IL 60604 312.427.3855 FAX 312.427.3660 www.econres.com Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Chicago Washington DC London New York Table of Contents I. Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... 4 II. Introduction................................................................................................................... 7 Approach................................................................................................................................ 7 Sources................................................................................................................................... 7 III. Demographic Perspectives ............................................................................................ 8 Regional Trends ...................................................................................................................... 8 Downtown Trends ................................................................................................................16 Demographic Implications..................................................................................................... 21 IV. Retail Market: National and Local Assessments .......................................................... 23 National Retail Trends ........................................................................................................... 23 Rockford Area Retail Inventory............................................................................................... 29 Retail Sales Trends in the Rockford Area................................................................................. 30 Pull Factor Analysis................................................................................................................ 35 Supportable Additional Retail Inventory................................................................................. 39 Retail Market Implications .....................................................................................................41 V. Retail Trade Areas and Strategies................................................................................ 42 Central Area.......................................................................................................................... 42 West State and Kilburn Area.................................................................................................. 60 East State Street/Miracle Mile ................................................................................................ 60 South Rockford/South Main .................................................................................................. 65 West Side Rockford ............................................................................................................... 70 VI. Residential Market Assessment ................................................................................... 76 National Trends for Downtown Housing................................................................................ 77 Midwest Residential Trends ................................................................................................... 78 Midwest Residential Development Case Studies ..................................................................... 86 Rockford Area Residential Market .......................................................................................... 92 Downtown and Near Downtown Demand Considerations ................................................... 114 Preliminary Downtown Residential Recommendations.......................................................... 120 Additional Study Area Considerations.................................................................................. 123 Residential Market Implications ........................................................................................... 134 VII. Recommendations..................................................................................................... 138 Downtown.......................................................................................................................... 138 7th Street............................................................................................................................. 143 Warehouse & Brownfield Development................................................................................ 145 Miracle Mile Area and East State St. and Alpine Rd. TIF........................................................ 145 VIII. Appendix A: Retail Case Studies............................................................................... 149 Small but Stable Shopping Districts ..................................................................................... 150 Independent and Art-Related Retailers and Entertainment ................................................... 152 Downtown Housing............................................................................................................ 153 Other Downtown Initiatives................................................................................................. 154 Learning from Other Cities .................................................................................................. 154 IX. Appendix B: Multi-Family Residential Case Studies................................................... 155 Bartley Lofts, Toledo, Ohio .................................................................................................. 155 Brownstones on Grand, Des Moines, Iowa........................................................................... 156 Court Avenue Apartments, Des Moines, Iowa ...................................................................... 159 4th Street Condos, Des Moines, Iowa .................................................................................. 161 River West Townhomes, Toledo, Ohio ................................................................................. 162 Economics Research Associates Project No. 17716 Draft Tobacco Lofts at Findorff Yards, Madison, Wisconsin........................................................... 163 Trostel Square, Milwaukee, Wisconsin ................................................................................. 165 Yahara River View Apartments, Madison, WI ....................................................................... 169 X. Appendix C: Smart Growth Community Case Studies.............................................. 171 Birkdale Village, North Carolina ........................................................................................... 171 Middleton Hills, Middleton, Wisconsin................................................................................. 172 XI. Appendix D: Retailer Location Specifications........................................................... 174 Retailer Location Specifications Information......................................................................... 175 Economics Research Associates Project No. 17716 Draft Index of Tables Table 1. Population Growth Estimates............................................................................................. 8 Table 2. Age Cohorts (2007)........................................................................................................... 9 Table 3. Age Cohorts (2012)........................................................................................................... 9 Table 4. Household Growth Estimate ............................................................................................ 10 Table 5. Family Households as Percent of Total Households........................................................... 11 Table 6. Percent of Households with Persons 65 Years and Older .................................................. 12 Table 7. Origin of Migrants (States)............................................................................................... 12 Table 8. Origin of In-state Migration............................................................................................. 13 Table 9. Educational Attainment 1990 - 2000 Trends (CAGR)........................................................ 13 Table 10. Per Capita Income Trends ..............................................................................................14 Table 11. Median Household Income............................................................................................ 15 Table 12. Households by Income (2007) ....................................................................................... 15 Table 13. Downtown Population ..................................................................................................17 Table 14. Educational Attainment within Downtown Households, 2000........................................ 18 Table 15. Downtown Households ................................................................................................. 18 Table 16. Median Household Income for Downtown .................................................................... 19 Table 17. Downtown Households by Income (2000) ..................................................................... 20 Table 18. Downtown Households by Income