GEORGIA Integrating Models at Multiple Scales for Transportation Energy and Emissions Assessment National Center Randall Guensler, Michael O. Rodgers, for Sustainable Michael Hunter, Angshuman Guin, Haobing Liu, Transportation Xiaodan Xu, Hanyan Li, Daejin Kim, Yingping Zhao, Cody Wang, Hongyu Lu CHANGING WHAT'S POSSIBLE Georgia Institute of Technology School of Civil and Environmental Engineering USEPA MOVES Review Workgroup Ann Arbor, MI October 9, 2019 12/4/2019 Overview Modeling Tools MOVES-Matrix for energy and emissions Georgia Tech Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC) Application Linkages: Travel demand and activity-based modeling (ABM) Traffic simulation models (Vissim™, DTA, etc.) Data-driven real-time simulation Monitored corridor-level vehicle activity Pollutant dispersion models (AERMOD, etc.) Ongoing modeling work (dissertations) Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 2 ∗ MOVES Modeling EPA's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) Emissions are defined as a function of speed and vehicle-specific power (VSP) to account for the impact of speed and acceleration on energy and emissions MOVES translates inputs into the VSP framework, processes the inputs, and translates results back into user-required outputs Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 3 13 MOVES Source Types Source Source Type Name Type ID Motorcycle 11 Passenger Car 21 Passenger Truck 31 Light Commercial Truck 32 Intercity Bus 41 Transit Bus 42 School Bus 43 Refuse Truck 51 Single-Unit Short Haul Truck 52 Single-Unit Long Haul Truck 53 Motor Home 54 Combination Short Haul Truck 61 Combination Long Haul Truck 62 12/4/2019 4 Example CO2 Emission Rates by VSP Bin for Passenger Trucks (2016MY in 2016) ∗ (-) (-) (-) (-)c ) 50+ mph 14 (80+ kph) 12 25-50 mph (40-80 kph) 10 0-25 mph (0-40 kph) 8 6 Emission Rate 4 (grams/second) 2 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 40 Operating Mode Bin 23 operating mode bins Georgia ~ 0 = braking, 1 = idle, 11 = coast, 21 = coast Tech ~ 12/4/2019 5 FTP Driving Cycle Animated Driving Cycle: Speed and Energy Consumption Second-by-Second Speed Profiles 60 ~ 50 E 40 :; 30 ~ 20 fli 10 --,__1~,60-o----------1---'l',80,._o------s o-i-o ____ __,_2 ~00__ _____ 4_,,_oo_...___.,___.,._6~00_..,.__ ____ ~ ...-8~00-----",_1,~oo_,.o _________, 1"!-,20-o------,__._1.,_,40-o- Time (s) Operating Modes Distributions 350 i,' 300 C 250 ~ 200 tr 150 ~ 100 LL 50 0 0 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 40 Operating Mode Bin Paused 1.0 -3.0 38.9 11.0 143.53 Current Speed Current Acceleration Current Energy Total Distance Total Trip Energy (mph) (mph/sec) (kJ/sec) (Miles) (MJ) Georgia ~ ~ ~ Tech Drivi ng Cycle: I I 11 I • [P§tPause] Stop ~ Faster Slower 12/4/2019 6 Traditional MOVES Modeling Modeling of complicated and dynamic networks is tedious Requires generation of many link emission rates Users often generate lookup tables to support modeling GT Goal: Pre-run MOVES for all combinations of input data Configure MOVES for distributed computing Iterate runs across all input combinations Compile emission rates into a multi-dimensional matrix Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 7 MOVES Runs per Region 30,429 MOVES on-road exhaust runs 21 calendar years 3 fuel months (summer, winter, transition) 23 temperature bins (5°F bins) 21 humidity bins (5% bins) 20 minutes/core/run Five days in PACE (80+ sustained cores assigned) 5,348,983,500 running emission rates per region 121.2 Gb emission rate matrix per region 1.2 millions of MOVES runs to date Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 8 Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) Partnership between Georgia Tech faculty, researchers, and the Georgia Tech Office of Information Technology 35,000 cores 90 terabytes memory 2 petabytes of storage The PACE “Super” Computer Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 9 MOVES-Matrix Run Module: Developing On-Road Fleet Emission Rates Regional CY1, Fuel1, CY2, Fuel2, CY3, Fuel3, Matrix I/M1, I/M2, I/M3, Meteorology1 Meteorology2 Meteorology3 Regional Inputs: Select sub-matrices Calendar Year, Fuel, I/M, Meteorology Fleet Activity per Link: Query sub-matrix Source Type Distribution, Model Year Distribution, Speed / VSP OpMode Bin Return fleet emission rate Source Model Year (weighted by onroad activity) Source Type 12/4/2019 10 MOVES vs. MOVES-Matrix Results Results are exactly the same as MOVES GUI results 25 1.5 NOx (grams) PM2.s (grams) Sample Size = 56,700 links*runs Sample Size = 56,700 links*runs 20 ... ········· y = l x + 2E-07 ··· y = lx - 3E-07 R2 = 1 R2 = 1 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 0.5 1 MOVES Difference < 0.0001% MOVES 12/4/2019 11 MOVES-Matrix 2.0 MOVES-Matrix for regional inventory modeling Start exhaust, truck hoteling, and evaporative emissions Atlanta regional inventory case study MOVES-Matrix generates exactly the same results Provides tremendous flexibility for use in scenario analysis Xu, X., H. Liu, H. Li, M.O. Rodgers, R. Guensler (2018). “Integrating Engine Start, Soak, Evaporative, and Truck Georgia ~ Hoteling Emissions into MOVES-Matrix. ”Transportation Research Record. Washington, DC. 2018. Tech ~ 12/4/2019 12 Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC) http://fec.ce.gatech.edu/ Originally transit-only, to help agencies assess and compare alternative transit vehicle technologies Georgia I Fuel and Em1ss1ons Calculator Capital costs Tech '' sehoalat<Mn~~ Operating/maintenance costs OVERVIEW QUICK LINKS The Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC) was originally developed to help public S<:hoololCivilandEnvironmental Engineering transitagencieschoosebetweenaltemativetransitvehicles.includingavariety ofexistingandanticipatedelectricvehicleoptions. The calculator makes it Coll~ofEnginttring Energy use and emissions easier for transit agencies to assess and compare the performance of alternative Argonne Na1ionallabo<a1ory vehicletechnologiesonthebasisofpurchasing,operatingandmaintenance costs.lncludlngenergy/fueleff1ciency,andtheabilitytoreduceGHGemissions MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emiuion Simulator) Toprovideamorecompleteanalysisofaltemativefleetvehicles,thecalculator Includes hybrids and EVs alsoprovidessupportforuserinputsrelatedtothereductionofcriteriaair p0llutants that contribute indirectly to global warming, and to reduced roadway (breathingzone)airp0llutants.Attentionwasgiventoelectricdrivevehicles. NEWS includingvehiclesmakinguseofwheelhubmotorunits.toenable transit agenciestoassessthebenefitsolthesevehiclesascandidatesfortheir vehicle BIE!illThewebsiteisbeing fleets.Thespreadsheet-basedcalculatorismadeavailablethroughtheFederal updatedfornewfeatures. Checkour Lifecycle analysis Transit Administration (FTA) free of any charge to public agencies world-wide, latest spreadsheet tools and On-road pump-to-wheel (PTW) from MOVES-Matrix Upstream well-to-pump (WTP) from GREET Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 13 MOVES-Matrix Applications MOVES-Matrix can be applied at any spatial and temporal scale and can be linked with any model via Python scripts Regional travel demand models Corridor/scenario analysis ™ Vissim and other microscopic simulation models Microscale pollutant dispersion modeling App-based vehicle energy and emissions modeling The FEC and Cost Calculator can be applied in series Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 14 MOVES-Matrix 2.0 Travel Demand Model Connectivity MOVES-Matrix 2.0 Atlanta Regional Commission’s (ARC’s) regional activity-based travel demand model ABM Activity-based model (ABM) predicts trips (origin-destination) and link-level travel 5,873 zones Source: Atlanta Regional Commission 74,469 network links Georgia ~ Tech ~ 12/4/2019 15 Atlanta’s Activity-Based Model (ABM) On-network and Off-network Emissions On-Network Atlanta_TAZ_2017 VMTparA,.,. Alllnta_TAZ._2(111 Alllnl,o_TAZ,_7017 _...,..,__ ,.....,. tvr--•I N-"'iLIJ1HM.N(9'IMl<>CH) - 000-100 _ , .01-1.00 - •·Ool - U0- 1.00 - OOol•OC• ~.01 -10.oc -·· - 10.0t -21,00 UJ.Otl - •01.uoooo . ...... -··· VMT HC Off-Network Allanl,o_TAZ._2017 Alllnta_TAZ,_2011 Att.1n1,o_TAZ_2017 Alllnta_TAZ_7011 -•IMIJIHOC.N !ttaN-.J P-..:tW-patAUt(V-act•) Off---~l'dtocarbonPtfOC.Njllf.... M:N) Off-PM2.lpetAcN(9tlMI-.) - •150 . ..... - •OOol .- oOCl,OIIO.. , - 0.50- 100 - •Ool•t.OI . ..... .. ,10_,., 150-2.00 • ••-2.00 - J00-2.50 . ....,.a • •:too - •J.50 - •010 Starts Parked Vehicles HC Georgia ~ Tech tQl 12/4/2019 16 ABM Activity-Based Model Inventory by Emissions Source 19- refuel spillage 90- extended idle 1%_____ 91- auxiliary power 3% Hydrocarbon 17- crankcase exhaust PM2.s extended idle 0% ■ 1- running exhaust 0% ■ 1- running exhaust ■ 2- start exhaust ■ 2- start exhaust ■ 11- permeation running ■ 13- fuel leaking ■ 9- brake wear 0% ■ 15- crankcase running 16- crankc ■ 10- tire wear ■ 16- crankcase start start ■ 15- crankcase running 0% ■ 17- crankcase extended idle 2- start exhaust ■ 18- refuel displacement ■ 16- crankcase start 31% ■ 19- refuel spillage ■ 17- crankcase extended ■ 90- extended idle idle ■ 91- auxiliary power ex haust Xu, X., H. Liu, Y. Xu, M. Rodgers and R. Guensler (2018). Regional Emission Analysis with Travel Demand Models and MOVES-Matrix (18-05363). 97th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board Georgia ~ (presentation only, full paper review, extended abstract in proceedings). Washington, DC. January 2018. Tech ~ 12/4/2019 17 ™ Vissim Microscopic Simulation ™ Automated linkage between Vissim and MOVES-Matrix Python scripts ™ Run Vissim microscopic simulation (defined network) ™ Retrieve vehicle trace data via Vissim COM interface Assign source types Process sec-by-sec trace data to