South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Proposition and Outline Business Case Annexes A-E LEP evidence base South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership List of Annexes Annex A Travel to work patterns Outward/Inward bound commuting map Outward/Inward bound commuting table Annex B Population table Annex C Growing Housing Market Areas Annex D Key business sectors and activities Clusters map and culture/visitor economy map Annex E Education & skills attainment Employment profile Annex F Letters of Support 2 LEP evidence base – Annex A South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Annex A: Commuting Patterns Summary Background Guidance on undertaking local Economic Assessments highlights that economic analysis is best undertaken at the spatial level at which the relevant economic market operates – or the ‘functional economic market area’. CLG have produced a guidance note on considering how best to evaluate Functional Economic Market Areas (FEMAs).1 The guidance notes that economic flows often overlap local authority boundaries. This means that the functional area over which the local economy and its key markets and businesses operate will not necessarily adhere to administrative boundaries. One of the most widely used approaches to identifying FEMAs is by reference to Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs), which are relatively self contained, internally contiguous labour market areas.2 The economic interaction across the South East Midlands is reflected in its commuting patterns. Its urban hubs assert a gravitational pull on their near neighbours creating economic interdependencies. For example: • 77.3% of all commuting into Milton Keynes comes from across the surrounding South East Midlands area.3 • Net in-commuting to Northampton is expected to increase due to surrounding sub-national growth.4 Commuting Patterns for Aylesbury Vale 39% of working people in Aylesbury Vale work commute out to work. The top destination in Milton Keynes followed by Wycombe, Chiltern and South Buckinghamshire. Although the transport links to central London are strong in Buckinghamshire, the strongest links are with its neighbouring districts. Commuting Patterns for Bedford Of Bedford’s 77,600 working population in 2008, 67% worked in the borough. Other destinations included Central Bedfordshire (7%), Milton Keynes (6%) and Luton (5%). Of the 75,000 people working in the borough, 66% came from the borough, while 10% came from Central Bedfordshire, 4.3% from east Northamptonshire, 4% from Huntingdonshire, 3% from Milton Keynes and 1.4% from Luton. 1 Communities and Local Government : Functional Economic Market Areas: An economic note February 2010 2 A commonly used definition is that: of the resident economically active population at least 75 per cent work in the area; and of all those working in the area at least 75 per cent also live in the area. 3 ONS, 2010 4 EMDA, 2007, pp.64-65 3 LEP evidence base – Annex A South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Bedford is a net importer of commuters from central Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and is a net exporter of commuters to Milton Keynes, Luton and London. Commuting Patterns for Central Bedfordshire Central Bedfordshire is covered by a number of travel to work areas (TTWAs). The major travel to work areas for Central Bedfordshire residents are: • Bedford • Milton Keynes and Aylesbury • Luton and Watford • Stevenage Central Bedfordshire has large population centres located in all of the TTWAs and there are also likely to be significant flows between TTWAs, which the statistical aggregation may mask, such as commuting between Leighton Buzzard and Dunstable. Commuting Patterns for Luton The economic impact of Luton extends outside the administrative area, but there are several overlapping functional relationships - commuting in from housing, commuting out to jobs, primary comparison shopping centre, sub-regional transport gateway. In key non-public sector businesses important for the future (in advanced engineering, logistics, business services, and creative industries) Luton plays a sub- regional role. Two in five people who live in Luton, work outside Luton and the trend is for more people to commute out. The figures for 2008 show, for people in employment who live in Luton, that: • 60% worked in Luton • 8% worked in Central Bedfordshire • 4 to 5% worked in each of Milton Keynes, St Albans & Dacorum (Herts) • 1 to 2% worked in each of Stevenage, Watford & Bedford Commuting patterns for Airport related jobs illustrate a wider sub-regional catchment area with only 50% of workers living in Luton. Commuting Patterns for Milton Keynes Milton Keynes has a very high percentage of people who live within its boundaries who also work in Milton Keynes (83%). However, of all people who work in Milton Keynes 40% commute in from outside. The top destinations for people who commute out of Milton Keynes are Bedfordshire, Central London, Northamptonshire and Buckinghamshire. The top four places from where people commute to Milton Keynes are Northamptonshire, Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Luton. 4 LEP evidence base – Annex A South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Commuting Patterns for Northamptonshire Northamptonshire’s significant travel to work flow is southwards to Milton Keynes and Cherwell. Into Northamptonshire the most significant travel to work flow to Northampton is northwards from Milton Keynes. The draft Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment demonstrates that its residents are increasingly travelling south to work, exporting skills mainly to Milton Keynes, Oxford, Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire. All parts of Northamptonshire have seen their self-containment fall, indicating increased mobility with larger flows to Milton Keynes and Cherwell.5 Place of work for Northamptonshire residents (APS 2008) 2001 flow 2008 flow Change Northants 83.1% 77.1% - 6% Milton Keynes 4.1% 5.4% + 1.3% Oxfordshire 1.7% 2.8% + 1.3% Hertfordshire 0.5% 2.1% + 1.6% Bedfordshire 1.5% 1.8% + 0.3% Warwickshire 0.4% 1.5% + 1.1% Cambridgeshire 0.8% 0.9% + 0.1% Leicester 0.4% 0.6% + 0.2% Leicestershire 1.2% 0.6% - 0.6% Peterborough 1.3% 0.6% - 0.7% Source: NCC/NEL 2010 5 NCC/NEL 2010, p.87 5 6 LEP evidence base – Annex B South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Annex B: Population Table Growth in population over last decade and five years and 2021 projection 2021 (figures in 000s) 2001 2004 2009 projection Aylesbury Vale 165.7 167.4 173.5 186.6 Cherwell 131.8 136.0 139.2 152.5 Dacorum 137.8 137.7 141.6 149.3 Milton Keynes 207.0 217.7 236.7 275.0 Bedford 147.0 153.0 158.0 170.7 Central Bedfordshire 233.6 242.1 252.9 284.9 Luton 184.4 182.9 194.3 214.6 Corby 53.2 53.1 55.2 60.1 Daventry 71.8 75.5 78.9 86.9 East Northamptonshire 76.6 80.7 85.0 96.0 Kettering 81.8 85.2 90.1 103.1 Northampton 194.5 195.6 210.5 245.5 South Northamptonshire 79.3 84.1 88.5 102.4 Wellingborough 72.5 73.6 75.7 83.6 South East Midlands 1,606.1 1730.3 1,819.4 2,031.6 Source: ONS 2001 Census, mid year estimates & population projections. Total figures for SEM excluded East Northants and Wellingborough 7 LEP evidence base – Annex C South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Annex C: Growing Housing Market Areas Given the polycentric nature of the South East Midlands economy and its commuting patterns, overlapping housing market areas are also identifiable. It is the case that parts of Central Bedfordshire, Aylesbury Vale and South Northamptonshire fall within the Milton Keynes housing market area. These areas include the relatively large towns of Leighton Buzzard and Buckingham. Central Bedfordshire is home to at least four surrounding housing markets. And the Luton housing market sprawls across much of Central Bedfordshire and parts of Aylesbury and Hertfordshire.1 Functional housing market areas: Source: West Northants Housing Market Assessment 2009 Inward migration accounted for a rise in the West Northamptonshire population of 4,020 people from 2002 to 2007. All of the net population gain came from London and the South East and the Eastern Region, with the largest net population gains were from Milton Keynes, Cherwell, Luton and Aylesbury Vale.2 Source: West Northants Housing Market Assessment 2009 1 MK Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2008 2 West Northamptonshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009 8 LEP evidence base – Annex C South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership The demand for housing to accommodate growth in the South East Midlands has meant that across the North Northamptonshire area a significant number of sites have been progressed through the planning system. There are almost 25,000 homes with s106 agreements or planning permissions to be delivered over the next ten years.3 DCLG annual reported housing completions 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 Total Aylesbury Vale 680 580 500 730 640 680 3,810 Cherwell 420 620 570 330 220 340 2,500 Dacorum 240 210 370 320 360 180 1,680 Milton Keynes 1,060 1,860 1,630 2,500 1,820 1,610 10,480 Bedford 610 720 310 660 660 2,960 Central Bedfordshire 1,120 850 730 1,280 690 4,670 Luton 290 230 250 290 210 150 1,420 Corby 290 600 740 860 500 330 3,320 Daventry 280 280 220 230 120 90 1,220 East Northamptonshire 480 630 630 440 240 200 2,620 Kettering 690 720 460 310 360 2,540 Northampton 500 950 1,120 1,050 730 550 4,900 South Northamptonshire 490 270 310 170 180 120 1,540 Wellingborough 270 220 260 110 860 Total 6,670 7,170 7,470 8,880 6,440 4,410 41,040 Source: DCLG; totals exclude East Northants and Wellingborough http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingst atisticsby/housebuilding/livetables/ 3 SQW, 2010, mksm quarterly performance report 9 LEP evidence base – Annex C South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership Housing Development Pipeline Overall there are 130,661 completions expected over the next ten years in the housing pipeline, across the mksm partnership area which covers most of the South East Midlands.