Section 5: Thefuture 23 American Judaism in the twenty-first century BRUCE PHILLIPS The three classic works on American Judaism in the twentieth century appeared just after midcentury, all echoing the theme of Jews "fitting in" America and reflecting the rapid upward social mobility of American Jews. In American judaism, Nathan Glazer noted the trend toward religious identi- fication among Jewsas a way to fit in as an ethnic group by using a religious framework. 1 Even though America at midcentury was hostile to ethnicity, it was open to religiosity. In Conservativejudaism, Marshall Sklare observed that this most mainstream of the three movements differed from Ortho- doxy in terms of decorum.2 While the core beliefs and practices of Con- servative Judaism mirrored Orthodoxy, the former emphasized decorum in worship that was congruent with American religious life. In jewish Iden- tity on the Suburban Frontier, Sklare found that the Jews in the Midwest- ern suburb of Lakeville were ambivalent about Jewish particularism.3 The midcentury perspective tended to appreciate American Judaism in terms of assimilation. Adaptations to Americ~n life were most readily visible in re- ligious behaviors. TJlis perspective has continued to inform more recent studies such as Steven M. Cohen's jewish Identity and American Moder- nity, which used religious observance to gauge assimilation.4 Beginning in the 1980s, American sociologists of religion introduced two new per- spectives that have informed the understanding of contemporary American Judaism. In Habits 0/the Heart, Robert Bellah introduced the notion of reli- gious privatization and the sovereignty of the individual in making religious decisions.s While churches and seminaries may proscribe belief and prac- tice, individuals decide for themselves what is most meaningful to them. Arnold Eisen and Steven M. Cohen took Bellah's research into the Jewish community and found that Jews, like other Americans, insisted on discov- ering religious meaning. on their own without worrying about what was or was not "kosher."6 The second new approach, often referred to as the "new paradigm," was to understand American religion as part of a "religious marketplace." Researchers using the new paradigm emphasized the role of "rational choice" in religious behavior. Most recently, this perspective has , . 398 Bruce Phillips American Judaism in the twentyjlrst century 399 Table 1. Current religious identification of a// adult Jews Table 2. Current religious identification by Jewish parentage (a// adult Jews) Current religious identification % of adult Jews Two Jewish One Jewish Jewish grandparent Current religious identification parents (%) parent (%) only(%) Born Jewish; religion Judaism 62.0 Formally converted to Judaism 2.2 Born Jewish, religion Judaism 87.0 23.3 4.5 Jewish by religion without conversion 1.6 Secular Jew 8.4 25.5 16.3 Secular Jew -"no religion" 13.1 Jew practicing an Eastern religion 0.8 8.5 13.3 Jew practicing an Eastern religion 3.5 Christian Jew 3.8 42.7 65.9 Christian Jew 17.6 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 TOTAL 100.0 informed the analysis in Jewish Choices by Lazerwitz, Winter,Dashefsky, Adults who were identified as Christian Jews in the NJPS2000 were not and Tabory.7 converts to Christianity but rather the offspring of mixed marriages. Table 2 At the dawn of the twenty-first century, there are many trends at work compares the religious identification of Jewishadults of three kinds of Jewish within American Judaism and its major denominations. The goal of this dis- parentage: two Jewish parents, one Jewish (and one non-Jewish) parent, and cussion, based on the Year 2000 National Jewish Population Survey (NJPS), no Jewish parents. Individuals with no Jewish parents had at least one Jewish is to provide a sense of what Judaism will be like in the United States.s grandparent and identified themselves as Jewish by ethnicity or ancestry. Therefore, this chapter is focused not on Jewish thought or issues of denom- Adults of Jewish parentage overwhelmingly identified themselves as Jews inational doctrine, but on the religious beliefs and practices of persons who by religion (86 percent). Jewish adults with a non-Jewish parent were twice identify themselves as Jews in some way. aslikelyto identifythemselvesasa Christianby religion(41percent)10 than as a Jew by religion (22 percent). Adults with no Jewish parents identified themselves either as Christians or as practicing an Eastern religion. THE DECLINE OF JUDAISM AMONG AMERICAN JEWS The number of adherents to Judaism will decline as the twenty-first century progresses. This numerical decline can be anticipated from parents/ Perhaps the most important phenomenon emerging in the twenty-first cen- answers to how their children are being raised. Fewer than half of all Jewish tury is the declining number of Jews whose religion is Judaism. Largely as children are being rais~d as Jews.Table 3shows how children are being raised a result of intermarriage, the once seamless overlap between Jewish ethnic- according to the religious composition of the family. Endogamous couples ity and Judaism has begun to unravel. Writing in the late 1960s, Marshall almost universally raise thei1"children as Jews,but mixed-married couples do Sklare9 observed that American Judaism was a special case of the "ethnic not. Among the mixed-married couples, Jewsmarried to secular non-Jews are church" in which all members of the ethnic group (Jews)professed the same the most likely to raise their children in Judaism, but less than two-thirds religion (Judaism) and all members of the religion shared the same ethnic- do so (61 percent). Mixed-married couples in which both the Jewish parent ity. This is no longer the case, as evidenced in Table 1, which presents the and the non-Jewishparent are completely secular predominantly raise their religious identification of all adult Jews. Two out of five Jewish adults did children in no religion at all (79 percent). A dual-religion couple is made up not identify Judaism as their religion. Instead they identified themselves of a Jewby religion married to a Christian. Only one-quarter of the children either as secular (meaning that they had no religious identification) or as in dual-religion couples are being raised as Jews, and almost one-third are Christian Jews. Christian Jews are individuals who identify themselves as being raised as Christians. Although the parents identify with two different Jewsby ethnicity but are at least nominally Christian. They are the offspring religions, less than one-tenth of the children are being raised in two religions. of mixed marriages and were not counted as part of the Jewish population in Christian Jewsoverwhelmingly are raising their children as Christians. the report issued by the United Jewish Communities. I include them in this On the basis of the Jewish parentage of the child, Table 4 projects ad- analysis because they are essential for an understanding of the contemporary ,r herence to Judaism into the future. Almost all (98 percent) of the children American Jewish reality. with two Jewish parents are being raised as Jews. If one of the two Jewish American Judaism in the twentyfi'rst century 4°1 ~ Table 4. Long-rangeimpact a/intermarriage 0 or-.."",° ° on children <: ~~oi~g .... % raised as ....c Q) Jewish lineage of child Jewish by religion ~ cf2. 0..Q)~ Fully Jewish* 97.7 ..c: bo 1: C Q) """° u; ° .~'" .~ .... Three-quarters Jewish** 67.2 :i: '" «I ~.~ 0.. d,~oi 8 ....g Half-Jewish*** 38.7 One-quarter Jewish**** 4.1 C Jewish ancestry only***** 1.7 .£1 '" """ 0-- "'" """ ° Fully Jewish single parent 7°.2 ] :i: ~ "';~"';ci'g Half-Jewish single parent 28.3 u~~ .... ~ Single parent of Jewish ancestry 9.3 ~ All children 43.0 § 0~ ~ ~ I C ~ * Jewish parents and grandparents. "'0 .D>- .~§ .~1;) 0--0--0 t'I ° Q) ** Jewish parent of Jewish parentage married to Jew of partial parentage. ~ .~ ". b.O'~ i::: ;>'~"" ..c: ~~o\~ g *** Jew of Jewish parentage married to non-Jew. ~ I ~a3 u .... .~ 8 .... ***** Jewish parent of partial parentage married to non-Jew. 8 "'0 *****Only a grandparent is Jewish. ~ %,..... .~ "'0 cf2. i::: 8 C Q) «I. .... parents is only "half-Jewish" (i.e., one of the two was raised in a mixed ~'... "":i: «I rei Q):i:"'3 marriage), the percentage of the children raised as Jews drops to 67 percent. ~ ~ Q) U """\0 ° ° .a C ..c:..-Q)- Q) 0 0C Q)'" -o~I~g Just over one-third (39 percent) of the "half-Jewish" children (one Jewish .~ .... ~ i:O C ~ ~I.;: and one non-Jewish parent) are being raised as Jews. Children who are one- ~ .... quarter Jewish show the results of two generations of mixed marriage. When ~ «I "'3 U one Jewish parent is half-Jewish (raised in a mixed marriage) and the other ~ Q) ~ is non-Jewish, only 4'percent of the children are raised as Jews. Among ~ ~cf2. >- C :i: children raised in single-parent families, we do not know about the absent ~ .D ,S: Q) u;ou;o--o 8 0-00\"'° parent. However,the same pattern is apparent based on the Jewish lineage of \..) :i: .~6 \0 t'I ° \:j ~~ g .... ~ the child's parent: Children of a fully Jewish single parent are three times as ~ likely to be raised as Jews than children of a half-Jewish single parent. Even ~"'O l~ if the rate of mixed marriage remains steady, the number of adherents to '"«I .~.... ~ .... .~ C «I r-.. r-.. t'I """ ° Judaism will decline as the children of today become adults in the future. The ~ «I~ C8 0~ ~"';ooi g number of Jews,however, may not decline if the children and grandchildren ~ p.. .~ .... \:j of mixed marriages continue to identify themselves ethnically as Jews. It is ~ >- a3 doubtful, however, that they will be participants in Jewish communal life.