GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF CANADA OPEN FILE 6670 Climate Change Geoscience Program Year End Report 2009-2010 A.N. Rencz 2010 GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF CANADA OPEN FILE 6670 Climate Change Geoscience Program Year End Report 2009-2010 A.N. Rencz 2010 ©Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2010 This publication is available from the Geological Survey of Canada Bookstore (http://gsc.nrcan.gc.ca/bookstore_e.php). It can also be downloaded free of charge from GeoPub (http://geopub.nrcan.gc.ca/). Rencz, A.N. 2010. Climate Change Geoscience Program, Year End Report 2009-2010; Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 6670, 177 p. Open files are products that have not gone through the GSC formal publication process. [2] Climate Change Geoscience Program Year End Report 2009-2010 Andy Rencz Program Manager www.everystockphoto.com [3] Table of Contents CLIMATE CHANGE GEOSCIENCE PROGRAM 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 LOGIC MODEL 8 PROGRAM OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES 9 OUTPUTS 9 ECONOMIC RESILIENCE 9 COMMUNITY ADAPTATION 9 ADVISING PUBLIC POLICY 9 OUTCOMES 9 IMMEDIATE OUTCOMES 9 INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES 9 SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS 10 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONS FOR KEY ECONOMIC AND NATURAL ENVIRONMENT SECTORS 13 DEVELOPING EXTREME SCENARIOS FOR WATER AND LAND MANAGEMENT ON THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 18 DENDROISOTOPIC RECONSTRUCTION OF HYDROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST CENTURIES IN HYDROPOWER REGIONS OF THE QUÉBEC-LABRADOR PENINSULA 22 ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PERMAFROST BASED ON FIELD OBSERVATIONS AND MODELLING/MAPPING – WAPUSK NATIONAL PARK CASE STUDY 27 ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON A WILDLIFE HABITAT ECONOMICALLY IMPORTANT FOR NORTHERNERS 30 WATER SUPPLY FROM ATHABASCA RIVER UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE 32 CHARACTERIZING SECULAR VARIATIONS OF GRACE TOTAL WATER STORAGE ESTIMATES FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 37 DYNAMICS OF THE PRAIRIE LANDSCAPE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCES AND BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENT 40 EVALUATION OF TIME-SERIES OF MODIS FOR TRANSITIONAL LAND MAPPING IN SUPPORT OF BIOENERGY POLICY DEVELOPMENT 46 BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUMAN SETTLEMENTS 52 [4] SEA-LEVEL RISE ASSESSMENT FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL COMMUNITIES 55 SEA-LEVEL CHANGE ASSESSMENT FOR NUNAVUT COMMUNITIES AND PORT FACILITIES 57 ASSESSMENT OF URBAN HEAT ISLAND IMPACTS IN GTA REGION 60 LANDSCAPE HAZARD MAPPING IN CLYDE RIVER AND OTHER NUNAVUT COMMUNITIES 62 ASSESSING PERMAFROST CONDITIONS AND LANDSCAPE HAZARDS IN SUPPORT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN PANGNIRTUNG, BAFFIN ISLAND, NUNAVUT 64 COASTAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING NUNAVUT COMMUNITIES 66 BUILDING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE CANADIAN PLANNING COMMUNITY 72 SEA-LEVEL RISE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANNING POLICY IN THE HALIFAX REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY (HRM) AND OTHER PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA 74 CLIMATE CHANGE VISIONING IN CANADIAN COMMUNITIES (GEOIDE PROJECT PARTNERSHIP) 77 ARCTIC INFRASTRUCTURE (NUNAVUT): GEOMATICS INFORMATION TO SUPPORT MONITORING AND MAPPING OF FRESHWATER SUPPLIES IN NORTHERN COMMUNITIES 79 NUNAVUT CLIMATE CHANGE PARTNERSHIP 81 EARTH SCIENCE FOR NATIONAL SCALE CHARACTERIZATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CANADA'S LANDMASS 84 SURFACE ALBEDO FEEDBACK – OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS ON CLIMATE MODELS 86 NATIONAL SCALE SATELLITE CLIMATE DATA RECORDS OF CANADA'S LANDMASS AND ECOSYSTEMS 93 ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON ECOSYSTEM THROUGH DEVELOPING ADVANCED ECOSYSTEM MODELS 103 STATE AND EVOLUTION OF CANADIAN PERMAFROST 105 STATE AND EVOLUTION OF CANADA’S GLACIERS 107 PALEOENVIRONMENTAL PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE 111 EXTREME CHANGES IN GREAT LAKES PALEO-LEVELS IN THE EARLY HOLOCENE 115 PAN-ARCTIC ICE-CORES AND ATLANTIC-PACIFIC TELECONNECTIONS 119 INTERNATIONAL POLAR YEAR ACTIVITIES: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL TRENDS OF CLIMATE AND AIRBORNE CONTAMINANTS IN THE ARCTIC REGION FROM SNOW AND ICE 125 ICE-CORE BASED STUDIES OF CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES 128 NATIONAL SYNTHESES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 134 SEA-ICE HISTORY OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE 136 INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES 139 CARBON STORAGE AND SEQUESTRATION 141 ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET BALANCE AND SEA-LEVEL CHANGE 145 PUBLICATIONS 148 BOOK CHAPTERS 148 [5] JOURNAL ARTICLES AND REVIEWED REPORTS 148 REPORTS AND NON-REVIEWED JOURNALS 159 PRESENTATIONS - CONFERENCES, ORAL, POSTER AND WORKSHOP 161 APPENDIX 172 FORWARD THINKING 172 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 177 [6] Climate Change Geoscience Program Executive Summary The Climate Change Geoscience Program (CCG) at the Earth Science Sector (ESS) contributes to adapting to environmental impacts from climate change through the provision of critical earth science information to support policy and regulation decisions. The interaction between the development of a scientific knowledge base and the development of appropriate policy decisions is fundamental to achieving meaningful outcomes. The program’s fundamental role lies in providing a suitable base of geoscience knowledge, accomplished by identifying the knowledge needs and gaps through collaboration with stakeholders. Specifically the geoscience in the CCG Program focuses on those environmental variables that will be most impacted and altered by a changing climate namely the cryosphere (permafrost, glaciers and snow cover), water (availability trends and impacts as well as water level changes) and vulnerable landscapes (particularly coastal areas and northern ecosystems). Significant changes to these components of the environment will affect Canadians, their prosperity and ability to benefit from their environment. Scientific activities will quantify the environmental impacts using leading edge techniques that provide excellent knowledge and predictive insights. The scientific knowledge base is being delivered through a mix of earth observation, both remote and in-situ, and quantitative assessments of landscape and ecosystem response. Projects are multi-disciplinary respecting the multi-dimensionality of environmental issues and the need to study the interaction between variables. Northern vulnerability is particularly highlighted in the program as evidence for more rapid climate change and accelerating impacts in northern Canada has been cited as a critical driver in the government’s Northern Strategy which also recognizes environmental degradation, vulnerable infrastructure, and transportation as areas requiring attention. The outcome will be achieved through engagement in the current round of national and international assessments, in particular through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as the International Polar Year (IPY). Dr. Andy Rencz Program Manager, Climate Change Geoscience Program [7] Logic Model [8] Program Outputs and Outcomes Outputs Outcomes Economic Resilience Immediate Outcomes Sectoral policy-and decision-makers Assessment of climate change use Earth science information to impact on water-reliant sectors appraise the resilience of their Adaptation options for agriculture, oil sectors to a changing climate sands production, habitat Practitioners incorporate Earth management science information in the identification and characterization of Community Adaptation vulnerabilities and adaptation options Criteria and methodology for Science community advising assessment of vulnerability adaptation policy and decision Documentation of vulnerabilities for makers informed by effective change stakeholders detection and projection Learning, decision-making tools adapted for planning use Intermediate Outcomes Advising Public Policy Key economic sectors dependent on natural capital, implement adaptation Regional assessments of landscape, strategies for a changing climate ecosystem response using Earth science information National datasets and databases on Vulnerable communities adopt landscape change adaptation measures that increase Paleoenvironmental reconstructions public safety, resilience and for impact studies and to constrain sustainability models Effective adaptation measures are Reports, contributions to synthesis put in place by governments products and national, international assessments Long Term Outcomes Canada's resilience to a changing climate is enhanced through effective adaptation strategies informed by ESS geoscience and geomatics outputs [9] Scientific Contributions The Government of Canada recognizes climate change as one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing the country. It is investing substantially across departments to address this issue. Efforts to date have focused primarily on mitigation and reporting, following the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, but there is now a widespread recognition of the need for greater focus on impacts and adaptation. The goal of the Climate Change Geoscience Program is to apply geoscience and geomatics expertise to assist Canadians in understanding, preparing for, and adapting to the effects of changing climate on their communities, infrastructure, and way of life. The program's vision is to address priority needs for increased resilience of people, communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems in Canada, in areas where Earth Sciences Sector (ESS) expertise can be most effective, by: Working directly with stakeholders from key economic and natural resource sectors, communities, scientific and professional institutions, governments and industry, within an integrated risk assessment framework, to deliver geoscience and geomatics knowledge and expertise on climate-change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation; Contributing data and insights from climate-change research and monitoring