Northern York Region Electricity Supply Study Exhibit A: Consultation Report Prepared for Ontario Power Authority Prepared by Armen Kulidjian, P.Eng, M.B.A GRID Management Consulting Inc. 531 Russell Hill Road Toronto, Ontario, M5P 2T2 Ph: (416) 346-9633 Fax: (416) 482-9571 Email: [email protected] Website: www.gridconsulting.com 531 Russell Hill Road Tel: 416-346-9633 Toronto, Canada M5P 2T2 Fax: 416-482-9571 September 31, 2005 Mr. Amir Shalaby VP, Power System Planning Ontario Power Authority 175 Bloor Street East North Tower, Suite 606 Toronto, Ontario M4W 3R8 Dear Mr. Shalaby, Enclosed is the York Region Electricity Supply Consultation Report. This report presents results of a consultation process with the public, a diverse working group and elected officials from York Region. It contains important issues that the York Region residents, municipalities, school boards and business community have raised with respect to addressing the electricity supply needs and developing an integrated solution for Northern York Region. At this time I would like to recognize the York Region Electricity Supply working group representatives and advisors, the Elected Officials’ Forum representatives, as well as those that made written and verbal contributions during the consultation. Their direct input is reflected in this effort. We are grateful for the knowledge and experience that these individuals and organizations have shared with us. Sincerely, Armen Kulidjian, P.Eng. President _____________________________________________________________________________________ Northern York Region Electricity Supply Study Exhibit A: Consultation Report TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................... 4 2. CONSULTANT QUALIFICATIONS ................................................................................. 5 3. APPROACH ....................................................................................................................... 6 4. SUMMARY OF COMMENTS ON OPA RECOMMENDATION ...................................... 8 APPENDIX A-1: DRAFT OPA RECOMMENDATION......................................................... 14 APPENDIX A-2: CONSULTATION SUMMARY ................................................................. 18 OPA’s Role, Scope of Analysis, Consultation and Decision Making Process..................... 19 Time Horizon for Analysis ................................................................................................ 25 Load Meeting Capability of Existing Infrastructure ........................................................... 28 Load Forecast Review ....................................................................................................... 29 Conservation & Demand Management Review of Existing Programs................................ 32 York Region Need............................................................................................................. 34 Overview of RFI Process and Received Responses for Generation and Demand Response 35 Evaluation Factors............................................................................................................. 39 Environmental Assessment Requirements for Electricity Projects...................................... 41 Alternatives to Meet Need ................................................................................................. 44 Conservation Demand Management in York Region ......................................................... 46 Distribution Options .......................................................................................................... 48 Transmission Options........................................................................................................ 52 Environmental and Health Considerations ......................................................................... 59 Generation Options............................................................................................................ 62 Methodology to Compare Transmission to Generation ...................................................... 67 Rate Impacts – Who Pays? ................................................................................................ 71 Parking Lot Items.............................................................................................................. 73 APPENDIX A-3: WORKING GROUP DELIVERABLES...................................................... 74 Evaluation Factors............................................................................................................. 74 Alternatives Identified ....................................................................................................... 75 Options Identified and Analyzed ....................................................................................... 76 Relative Ranking of Options.............................................................................................. 83 Notes on High Level Analysis and Ranking of Options ..................................................... 85 APPENDIX A-4: YORK REGION WORKING GROUP........................................................ 92 APPENDIX A-5: TERMS OF REFERENCE........................................................................... 95 APPENDIX A-6: SLIDES USED IN PUBLIC CONSULTATION ......................................... 97 _____________________________________________________________________________________ GRID Management Consulting Inc. Page 3 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Northern York Region Electricity Supply Study Exhibit A: Consultation Report 1. INTRODUCTION On March 1, 2005 the Ontario Power Authority received a letter from the Minister of Energy. The Minster requested that the OPA identify and assess possible solutions to address local reliability issues in York Region. The solution options considered would be broadly based and not confined solely to a consideration of transmission. The Minister requested that the OPA present its findings to the Ontario Energy Board so that they may consider them in their determination of the appropriate regulatory treatment of the issue. The OPA was asked to prepare evidence to assess the need and recommend a preferred option to meet the need in York Region. The OPA goal is to recommend a solution that is technically feasible, timely, and cost effective while considering community impacts. The OPA chose to directly involve the affected communities and local utilities into the entire process to accelerate the collection of data, to receive detailed and constructive advice and feedback with respect to the identification, definition and evaluation of electricity supply and demand response options, encourage discussions of issues with various stakeholders with diverse viewpoints, facilitate a mutual understanding of differing viewpoints, and allow the interested public to participate in the deliberation process used for the OPA to produce a report to the Ontario Energy Board. In March 2005, GRID Management Consulting Inc. was retained by the Ontario Power Authority to conduct a public consultation related to addressing the electricity supply needs of Northern York Region. On July 25, 2005 the OPA received a letter of direction from the OEB in accordance with section 21 of the Ontario Energy Board Act which authorizes the OEB to direct parties to file evidence to assist the OEB in its determination of an issue. The OEB asked that the OPA provide an opinion on the need for new supply in York Region including a timeline on when new supply would be required. In addition, the OEB asked that the OPA provide an opinion on which of four predetermined options or another OPA generated option is the optimal way to serve this demand in the region. The OEB asked that this evidence be filed by September 30, 2005. _____________________________________________________________________________________ GRID Management Consulting Inc. Page 4 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Northern York Region Electricity Supply Study Exhibit A: Consultation Report 2. CONSULTANT QUALIFICATIONS Armen Kulidjian has provided management consulting services to the energy sector for the past 9 years, initially with Cap Gemini Ernst & Young’s Energy Group in Toronto and later with GRID Management Consulting Inc., a company he founded in May 2000. GRID Management Consulting Inc. is a premier consulting firm focused exclusively on the competitive energy industry. It was founded with the knowledge that the energy industry was faced with incredible opportunities and new challenges. Today, the firm has grown in its network of associates, the markets it has served (e.g. Ontario, Northwestern United States, Midwest United States and New Brunswick), and the types of clients it serves (e.g. market operators, planning authorities, transmitters, distributors, generators and industrial customers). Armen Kulidjian has extensive electricity industry knowledge in both business and operational processes and experience managing large projects in the areas of electricity deregulation, stakeholder consultation, process design, system implementation, strategic analysis and cost reduction. The following is a list of a few relevant projects that Armen has been involved in: Lead an Ontario Energy Board industry consultation process with respect to implementing “smart” meters across