Renewables 2020 Analysis and forecast to 2025 Renewables 2020 Abstract Analysis and forecast to 2025 Abstract In May 2020, the IEA market update on renewable energy provided an analysis that looked at the impact of Covid-19 on renewable energy deployment in 2020 and 2021. This early assessment showed that the Covid-19 crisis is hurting – but not halting – global renewable energy growth. Half a year later, the pandemic continues to affect the global economy and daily life. However, renewable markets, especially electricity-generating technologies, have already shown their resilience to the crisis. Renewables 2020 provides detailed analysis and forecasts through 2025 of the impact of Covid-19 on renewables in the electricity, heat and transport sectors. PAGE | 1 IEA. All rights reserved. rights All IEA. Renewables 2020 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecast to 2025 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. It was designed and directed by Heymi Bahar, Senior Energy Analyst. The report benefited from analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues.The lead authors of the report were, Yasmina Abdelilah, Heymi Bahar, Trevor Criswell, Piotr Bojek, François Briens and Pharoah Le Feuvre. Grecia Rodríguez Jiménez was responsible for data management and contributed to analysis and drafting. The report also benefited from analysis, data and input from Chenlu Cheng, Andrea Dertinger, Hideki Kamitatara and Kazuhiro Kurumi. Paolo Frankl, Head of the Renewable Energy Division, provided strategic guidance and input to this work. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA, in particular, Keisuke Sadamori, Laura Cozzi, Laszlo Varro and Michael Waldron. Other IEA colleagues who have made important contributions to this work include: Zakia Adam, Praveen Bains, Christophe Barret, Mariano Berkenwald, Sylvia Beyer, Toril Bosoni, Stéphanie Bouckaert, Davide d’Ambrosio, Connor Donovan, Carlos Alvarez Fernandez, Peter Fraser, Marine Gorner, Edwin Haesen, César Alejandro Hernandez, Zoe Hungerford, Joerg Husar, Dionisia Lyngopoulou, Yannick Monschauer, Apostolos Petropoulos, Uwe Remme, Luis Fernando Rosa, Andreas Schroeder, Jeremy Sung, Michael Oppermann, Jacopo Tattini, Jacob Teter, Nicole Thomas, Aad Van Bohemen, Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Brent Wanner. Timely data from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report, with particular assistance provided by Mathilde Daugy, Julia Guyon, Nick Johnstone, Samantha Mead, Julian Prime, Céline Rouquette and Roberta Quadrelli. This work benefited from extensive review and comments from the IEA Standing Group on Long-Term Co-operation, IEA Renewable Energy Working Party, members of the Renewable Industry Advisory Board (RIAB) and experts from IEA partner countries and other international institutions. The work also benefited from feedback by the IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology, IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes (IEA TCPs). PAGE | 2 IEA. All rights reserved. rights All IEA. Renewables 2020 Acknowledgements Analysis and forecast to 2025 Many experts from outside of the IEA provided valuable input, commented and reviewed this report. They include: Countries Brazil (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética), Canada (Natural Resources Canada), Chile (Ministry of Energy), China (Energy Research Institute – ERI), Colombia (Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética), European Union (European Commission – DG Energy) France (Ministry of Ecological and Solidarity Transition) Italy (National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development ENEA), Ireland (Sustainable Energy Authority – SEAI), Japan (METI, Institute of energy economics – IEEJ and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization – NEDO), New Zealand (Ministry of Economic Development), Switzerland (Federal Office of Energy), United States, Department of Energy. Technology Collaboration Programme (TCPs) Bioenergy TCP, Heat Pump Centre (HPC) TCP, Hydropower TCP, Photovoltaic Power Systems (PVPS) TCP, Solar Heating and Cooling TCP, SolarPaces TCP, Wind Energy TCP. Other organisations Abengoa Solar, Acciona Energía, American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE), Electric Power Development Company (JPOWER), Électricité de France (EDF), ENEL, Enercon, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Commission, European Geothermal Energy Association (EGEC), European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), European Renewable Energy Foundation (EREF), European Renewable Ethanol Association (EPURE), European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF), General Electric (GE), Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE). Global Wind Energy Association (GWEC), GoodFuels, International Hydropower Association (IHA), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Neste, Ørsted, REN21, Siemens Gamesa, Solar Power Europe, SPV Market Research, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Vestas, WindEurope, World Bank The authors would also like to thank Kristine Douaud for skilfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular, Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdem, Christopher Gully, Jad Mouawad, Jethro Mullen, Julie Puech, Robert Stone and Therese Walsh for their assistance. In addition, Ivo Letra from the Office of Management and Administration supported data management. Questions or comments? Please write to us at [email protected]. PAGE | 3 IEA. All rights reserved. rights All IEA. Renewables 2020 Table of contents Analysis and forecast to 2025 Table of contents Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 10 Covid-19 and the resilience of renewables .......................................................................... 15 The world after strict lockdowns ................................................................................................ 15 January to June renewable electricity capacity additions ....................................................... 17 Pre-crisis policies will have at least as much impact as Covid-19 on the future of renewable technologies ............................................................................................................................... 19 Renewable industry equity performance ................................................................................. 22 Impact of Covid-19 crisis on renewable electricity penetration and prices .......................... 24 Renewable energy in heat and transport is less resilient ........................................................ 26 References .................................................................................................................................. 28 Renewable electricity .............................................................................................................. 29 Forecast summary .................................................................................................................. 29 Solar PV .................................................................................................................................... 36 Forecast overview ...................................................................................................................... 36 China ........................................................................................................................................... 39 United States .............................................................................................................................. 41 India ............................................................................................................................................. 44 Japan ........................................................................................................................................... 47 ASEAN ......................................................................................................................................... 49 Australia........................................................................................................................................ 51 Europe ......................................................................................................................................... 52 Germany ...................................................................................................................................... 54 Spain ............................................................................................................................................ 56 The Netherlands ......................................................................................................................... 58 France .......................................................................................................................................... 59 Italy ............................................................................................................................................. 60 Poland .......................................................................................................................................... 61 Belgium ......................................................................................................................................