ANALYSIS • On 17 October 2020, voters in New Zealand re-elected a Labour Government in what DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS has been labelled an historic, landslide victory. The final count was announced on 6 Novem- ber, Labour’s share of the vote had grown to 50 per cent and HOME FOR 65 seats. PROGRESSIVE • In combination with the Green and Māori Party, these results POLITICS? indicate that 59.1 per cent of voters opted for the progressive left, which now holds 64 per An Analysis of Labour’s Success in New Zealand cent of parliamentary seats. Jennifer Curtin • December 2020 This result represents a signif- icant win for the left in New Zealand. It is the largest share of the vote won by the Labour Party in 82 years (50 per cent in 2020, compared to 55 per cent in 1938). The magnitude of Labour’s win cannot be underestimated. DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS HOME FOR PROGRESSIVE POLITICS? An Analysis of Labour’s Success in New Zealand Contents 1 ADVANCING PROGRESSIVE POLITICS THROUGH INCLUSIVE LEADERSHIP 2 2 LABOUR’S RECORD IN OFFICE – INCREMENTALISM OVER TRANSFOR MATION 4 3 THE FUTURE OF PROGRESSIVE POLITICS IN NEW ZEALAND 8 1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – Home for Progressive Politics? On 17 October 2020, voters in New Zealand re-elected a power ful shift in whose voices are represented in parliament Labour Government in what has been labelled an historic, and cabinet, what implications might this have for policy landslide victory. On election night, the Labour Party had change? Second, what progressive policy wins did Labour won 49.1 per cent of the vote, and 64 seats in the 120-seat achieve in its first three years, given their unexpected gains parliament, while the Greens secured 7.6 per cent of the in 2017, and their coalition agreement with a conservative vote and 10 seats. In the two weeks that followed, 480,000 centre party? And third, now that Labour is able to govern special votes (including those from overseas), were counted, alone, will the transformational policy reset promised in 2017 and when the final count was announced on 6 November, feature in their post-2020 COVID-19 economic recovery? Labour’s share of the vote had grown to 50 per cent and 65 seats. 1 ADVANCING PROGRESSIVE POLITICS This result represents a significant win for the left in New THROUGH INCLUSIVE LEADERSHIP Zealand for a number of reasons. First, this is the largest share of the vote won by the Labour Party in 82 years (50 per In one important aspect, the Labour Party that won the 2017 cent in 2020, compared to 55 per cent in 1938). As a result, election looked very different to its predecessors. Labour’s it is the first time we have seen a party win enough seats to leader, Jacinda Ardern, was a young 37-year-old, self-pro- form a government alone since the introduction of MMP, claimed feminist social democrat, who was elected to the the German- inspired electoral system New Zealand adopted Labour leadership in a unanimous ballot just seven weeks in 1996. Labour’s former coalition partner, the conservative out from election. centrist party New Zealand First, failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter parliament. In the campaign that followed, Ardern’s political rhetoric focused on kindness and inclusion, hope and the possibility Second, this shift to the left by the New Zealand electorate of a transformative policy agenda that would address pov- was also evidenced by the success of the Greens, who not erty, inequality and climate change. Our analysis of ques- only won nine List seats, but also won an inner-city electorate tions in the New Zealand Election Study shows that Ardern’s seat. The latter is a rare win for the Greens, as it is difficult for campaign and policy messages were sufficiently inclusive and small parties to achieve sufficient geographical concentration convincing that there was little discursive space (or time) for a of the vote in New Zealand’s general electorates. negative, divisive authoritarian populist rhetoric to take hold. By contrast, in the traditions of inclusive populism, her leader- Alongside this, the Māori Party (New Zealand’s Indigenous ship style was positive and presented the ›people‹ as a diverse party that contested the seven designated Māori elector- group coming together to make New Zealand ›better‹ for ates) made a comeback after being ousted from parliament everyone. As a leader, voters found her likeable, trustworthy, in 2017. Between 2008 and 2017, the Māori Party supported and competent, although women were more positive than the centre-right government. In 2020, with new leadership men on these measures. and a commitment to support a Labour government, the Party won from Labour one of the seven separate Māori elec- Second, although Ardern presented herself as a progressive torates, and a sufficient percentage of the party vote to bring feminist on issues such as abortion, climate change, and in a candidate from their list. LGBTQI rights, she also campaigned strongly on material is- sues such as economic wellbeing, housing, and social policies. Third, this election was historically different because Labour Voters’ responses to a range of ›cultural‹ or ›identity politics‹ won several seats in rural and regional New Zealand that questions in our election survey indicate there was minimal have traditionally been won by the centre-right National backlash to feminism or environmental issues in 2017. Al- Party. Labour also secured a higher proportion of the party though we found some differences between younger and (list) vote in all the electorates held by National. older voters, these were not large enough to suggest there was a generational cultural divide in New Zealand. In other Thus, the magnitude of Labour’s win cannot be underesti- words, the right-wing populism seen elsewhere was not a mated. And, in combination with the Green and Māori Party, feature of the 2017 election. these results indicate that 59.1 per cent of voters opted for the progressive left, which now holds 64 per cent of parlia- In 2017, Ardern’s political rhetoric and leadership style led to mentary seats. Our New Zealand Election Study survey is still a resurgence in support from Labour’s base, an increase in in the field, meaning we can only infer for now why so many political donations, and poll ratings went from 24 per cent voters shifted left. Certainly, the government’s response to seven weeks out, to a polling day vote share of 37 per cent. COVID-19 is part of the story, but whether that explains the Despite the National party winning 44 per cent, it was Ardern biggest net vote shift in over a century remains to be seen. who was able to negotiate a three-party coalition-support agreement that spanned the political spectrum from the con- So what does Labour’s comprehensive win signify for pro- servative centre to the progressive left. gressive politics in New Zealand? To answer this question, it is worth distinguishing between the descriptive and sub- Elsewhere I have labelled this New Zealand’s ›Borgen‹ mo- stantive dimensions of progressive politics in New Zealand. In ment: a reference to the Danish political drama that tells how other words, given New Zealand has witnessed a symbolically the female leader of a small centrist party finds herself as a 2 Advancing progressive politics through inclusive leadership compromise candidate for the role of prime minister follow- These working groups were criticised by politicians from the ing a closely fought general election. While the Labour Party right for wasting money and criticised by commentators on is not a small party, and New Zealand’s Mixed Member Pro- the left as being »old school« and uninspiring in terms of portional system has always held the potential for any leader process. And as we will see below, the government has not to form a government if they can marshal sufficient support, implemented all the recommendations made by these work- the result was highly unexpected and an historic first. But, as ing groups. However, if the objective was also to hear from we see in the next section, this coalition limited the process a wider array of Indigenous communities, advocacy groups of transformation promised by Ardern. and the public on critical, complex policy issues, then this approach could be considered worthwhile. After becoming New Zealand’s third woman prime minister, Ardern went on to become only the second prime minister in The culture of connecting the machinery of government with the world to give birth while in office (in July 2018). Later that community experts also extended as far the New Zealand year she became the first political leader to have her baby ac- Treasury. This central agency has a long history of keeping company her on the floor of the UN General Assembly. Then, its distance from the public and has a strong reputation for in March 2019, she responded to the Christchurch massacre elitism. Yet when building the new Living Standards Frame- with words of sorrow and compassion that resonated with work, which would inform the Government’s first Wellbeing many around the globe. Her leadership in that moment was Budget in 2019, Treasury officials toured the country seeking described by one Guardian commentator as unfamiliar and critical feedback on its initiative. It also established a Com- rare because it was neither anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim nor munity for Policy Research to engage with a wider range of xenophobic. Ardern used that moment to rapidly reform New experts and evidence. Zealand’s previously lax gun ownership laws.