IPC 12 12th International Precipitation Conference June 19-21, 2019 Irvine, California IPC12 2019 12th International Precipitation Conference 2019 and the Soroosh Sorooshian Hydrometeorology Symposium June 19 - 21, 2019 Beckman Conference Center, Irvine, California Pre-Conference Workshops: June 18, 2019 (UCI) University of California, Irvine 1 12th International Precipitation Conference and the Soroosh Sorooshian Hydrometeorology Symposium University of California, Irvine The Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering June 19 - 21, 2019 Beckman Conference Center, Irvine, California Pre-Conference Workshops: June 18, 2019 (UCI) Editor: Efi Foufoula-Georgiou Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA 92697-2175 Quotation from or reference to any part of this book should be made with full reference to the above data. Layout: Beth Riley Cover design: Alejandro Tejedor 2 Welcome Welcome to IPC12 and the Soroosh Sorooshian Hydrometeorology Symposium Precipitation research stands at the intersection of atmospheric, hydrologic, and climate sciences and demands dedicated attention in view of the tremendous implications for water availability and the impact of extremes for the safety, economy, and sustainability of many regions around the globe. The International Precipitation Conference (IPC) started in 1986 (IPC1 in Caracas, Venezuela as a Chapman Conference) dedicated to bringing together hydrologists, atmospheric scientists and mathematicians to understand the space- time structure of rainfall at multiple scales for the purpose of modeling, downscaling regional and climate models and incorporating stochastic parameterizations into numerical weather prediction models. Since then, 11 IPCs followed, organized every 2-3 years around the world, attracting a large community of hydrologists, physical/atmospheric scientists, climate scientists, and mathematicians/statisticians and advancing precipitation research and applications. The past 4 IPCs were held abroad (IPC11 in 2013 in the Netherlands; IPC10 in 2010 in Portugal; IPC9 in 2007 in France; and IPC8 in 2004 in Canada). The 12th IPC brings the community back to the U.S, with an impressive participation of colleagues from all over the world and involvement of a large number of early career scientists (graduate students, post-docs and junior scientists), to take a stock of accomplishments, define challenges and opportunities, and draft directions for future research. IPC12 focuses on three main themes: (1) estimation of precipitation from multiple sensors; (2) water cycle dynamics and predictive modeling at local to global scales; and (3) hydrologic impacts of precipitation extremes and anticipated change. IPC12 also leads a new era of precipitation research with the “big data revolution,” that is, with the unprecedented explosion of earth observations from space and model outputs from the development of community climate, hydrologic and earth system models, calling for new research on data-model integration for improved understanding and prediction. A special feature of IPC12 is the “Soroosh Sorooshian Hydrometeorology Symposium” to honor the pioneering career of Professor Soroosh Sorooshian in advancing hydrometeorology research and applications, providing community leadership, and mentoring a cadre of colleagues over the past four decades. As the founder of the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California Irvine, he has built global capacity for monitoring, forecasting and mitigation of hydrologic disasters through the development of precipitation products, leveraging and extending the benefits of space and weather agencies' technological resources into applications that assist hydrologists and water resource managers worldwide with equitable access to relevant information. A trademark of CHRS is the PERSIANN product used worldwide for hydrologic prediction and water resources applications. We received more than 150 abstracts from diverse corners of the world and from academia, agencies and the private sector, and have put together an exciting three-day 3 program with oral and poster presentations, leaving also time for discussion, interaction and opportunities to foster new collaborations. Four short courses are offered the day before the Conference (June 18) on diverse topics of precipitation research and applications, especially geared toward hands-on experience of junior scientists. There are several people who have contributed their expertise, talent and time to the success of IPC12. Special thanks go to the IPC12 organizing committee for putting together the sessions and the technical program. The local organizing committee helped with the many organizational tasks of the conference and the local events. Alyssa Sanchez, John Seaman, and Jerry Martinez handled the travel arrangements of participants and Shelly Nazarenus helped with the Beckman Center and registration logistics. Lawrence Vulis created and maintained the IPC12 web site and handled hundreds of emails from participants and travel support requests. Clement Guilloteau put together the initial copy of abstracts and Beth Riley and Jonathan K. Cohen compiled, edited and produced the IPC12 conference proceedings volume. Alejandro Tejedor designed the cover of the proceedings. Phu Nguyen, Diane Hohnbaum and Amir AghaKouchak helped with the organization of the Soroosh Sorooshian Hydrometeorology Symposium. The generous support by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the University of California, Irvine (UCI) is graciously acknowledged. Without their support this conference would not have been possible. We welcome all of you to the beautiful setting of Irvine in Southern California and we look forward to an exciting IPC12. Regards, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou University of California, Irvine On behalf of the IPC12 Organizing Committee 4 IPC12 Organizing Committee Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of California Irvine Amir AghaKouchak, University of California Irvine Kuo-lin Hsu, University of California Irvine Antonio Busalacchi, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center Taikan Oki, University of Tokyo Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal University Remko Uijlenhoet, Wageningen University William Logan, International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management David Feldman, University of California Irvine Ana Barros, Duke University Vincenzo Levizzani, NRC Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Joseph Turk, NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Hoshin Gupta, University of Arizona Witold Krajewski, University of Iowa Terri Hogue, Colorado School of Mines Clement Guilloteau, University of California Irvine Alejandro Tejedor, University of California Irvine Local Organizing Committee Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of California Irvine Amir AghaKouchak, University of California Irvine Phu Nguyen, University of California Irvine Diane Hohnbaum, University of California Irvine Lawrence Vulis, University of California Irvine 5 Sponsors The organizing committee gratefully acknowledges the support of the following sponsors: the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), the Linked Institutions for Future Earth (LIFE) NSF project, and the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS). 6 Contents Program ........................................................................................................................... 16 Oral Sessions ................................................................................................................... 32 Session 1: Remote Sensing of Precipitation .............................................................. 33 NASA’s Studies of Earth’s Water Cycle ............................................................... 34 Research Highlights from the International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG) ..................................................................................................................... 35 IMERG V06: The Role of IR Precipitation .......................................................... 36 Session 2: Hydrologic Applications ........................................................................... 37 Strange Floods: The Upper Tail of Flood Peaks in the U.S. ............................... 38 Insight into the Changing Characteristics of Global Snow Droughts ................ 39 Forecast Verification Applications at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology .. 40 Data-driven Distributionally Robust Modeling of Extremes .............................. 41 Session 3: Water Cycle Dynamics ............................................................................. 42 Process-oriented Diagnostics Framework and Stochastic Process Models for Precipitation ............................................................................................................ 43 Convective/Stratiform Classification from Passive Microwave Imagers: Implications for Improved Precipitation Retrievals, for Developing the Climatology of Precipitation Types, and for Better Understanding of the Water and Energy Cycles ................................................................................................... 44 Ensemble-based Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation for Hydrological Modeling and Beyond .....................................................................