MERICS PAPERS ON CHINA MADE IN CHINA 2025 The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countries Jost Wübbeke | Mirjam Meissner | Max J. Zenglein Jaqueline Ives | Björn Conrad No 2 | December 2016 MADE IN CHINA 2025 The making of a high-tech superpower and consequences for industrial countries Jost Wübbeke | Mirjam Meissner | Max J. Zenglein Jaqueline Ives | Björn Conrad Made in China 2025 Contents Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................................6 China’s industrial modernisation: a challenge to advanced economies ...................................................6 Made in China 2025 changes the terms of the game .........................................................................................6 Taking over international high-tech enterprises ......................................................................................................7 Will Made in China 2025 succeed? A mixed picture ...............................................................................................8 Key recommendations .....................................................................................................................................9 Policy makers .....................................................................................................................................................................................9 Industry associations ...................................................................................................................................................................9 Suppliers of smart manufacturing technology ......................................................................................................10 Manufacturers using smart manufacturing .............................................................................................................10 1. Smart manufacturing: China’s chance to leap ahead in the global competition ..................11 Chinese techno-nationalism: a rising challenge for industrial countries ..............................................12 Concepts and key terms: smart manufacturing, Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet ................13 2. Made in China 2025: a master plan for industrial leadership and import substitution ....14 2.1 Politics, not business: the real driver behind China’s smart manufacturing boom ..............15 2.2 Top-down strategy pushes smart manufacturing ..................................................................................... 17 2.3 China’s aim is technology substitution ..............................................................................................................20 3. Strengths and limitations of Made in China 2025 .........................................................................22 3.1 Powerful instruments for implementation .....................................................................................................22 3.2 The strengths come with inherent weaknesses ........................................................................................26 3.3 Economic challenges impair policy effectiveness ...................................................................................... 27 4. Manufacturers: a small but growing group of challengers to industrial countries ........... 29 4.1 Frontrunners combine business interest with policy support ..........................................................30 4.2 Hopefuls: winning or losing? .....................................................................................................................................33 4.3 Latecomers: losing out in the years ahead .....................................................................................................35 5. Chinese tech suppliers: lagging behind but rising ........................................................................ 37 5.1 Status-quo: dependence on foreign technology ....................................................................................... 37 5.2 Political goals and instruments: making Chinese tech suppliers dominant in China .........38 5.3 Fast technological catch-up ......................................................................................................................................40 5.4 Strong increase in international technology acquisition necessary ..............................................41 5.5 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................................41 Case Studies ..................................................................................................................................................... 43 Case study 1: Industrial robots.........................................................................................................................................43 Case study 2: Industrial software, cloud computing and big data ..........................................................46 Case study 3: 3D printing .....................................................................................................................................................48 4 | MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016 Contents 6. Implications for industrial countries ................................................................................................... 50 6.1 Industrial policy measures challenge foreign companies .....................................................................50 6.2 Made in China 2025 could harm business of foreign enterprises .................................................. 57 6.3 China’s industrial policy puts pressure on industrial countries .........................................................59 7. Recommendations ......................................................................................................................................61 7.1 Recommendations for policy makers ...................................................................................................................61 7.2 Recommendations for industry associations and chambers .............................................................63 7.3 Recommendations for suppliers of smart manufacturing technology ......................................64 7.4 Recommendations for companies using smart manufacturing .......................................................65 8. Annex ............................................................................................................................................................. 66 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 67 The authors .......................................................................................................................................................72 Figures 1: Under Pressure: Industrialised countries will feel the heat of Made in China 2025 2: Automation in China’s industry is low 3: Chinese productivity is low 4: Labour costs in China are still moderate 5: Smart manufacturing is high on the agenda 6: Made in China 2025 aims at substitution 7: China pushes industrial upgrading 8: The “robot craze“ of China’s local governments 9: Chinese enterprises are less and less willing to purchase new equipment 10: Made in China 2025: replacing foreign smart manufacturing technology 11: China’s tech suppliers receive generous subsidies 12: Increasing innovation in Industry 4.0 in China 13: China’s innovation in Industry 4.0 focuses on robots, industrial communication and sensors 14: China is the largest robot market 15: Chinese robot manufacturers depend on foreign suppliers for key components 16: Huge demand for industrial software 17: Huge growth potential of 3D printing in China 18: The state hides behind investment management companies 19: The Fujian connection 20: China goes its own way in cloud computing and big data 21: Under Pressure: Industrialised countries will feel the heat of Made in China 2025 Tables 1: Industrial policy for technological progress 2: China’s smart manufacturing boom is unequally distributed 3: Leaders in smart manufacturing 4: Political support for hopefuls 5: Still a long way to go for Industry 3.0 and Industry 4.0 6: Technology catch-up varies between technologies 7: Growing number of acquisitions of foreign tech suppliers 8: Future impact of China’s industrial policy on foreign manufacturers and tech suppliers 9: List of implementation documents for Made in China 2025 in the field of smart manufacturing MERICS | PAPERS ON CHINA No 2 | December 2016 | 5 Executive Summary CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL MODERNISATION: A CHALLENGE TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES This report analyses China’s ambitious plan to build one of the world’s most advanced and compet- itive economies with the help of innovative manufacturing technologies (“smart manufacturing”). China’s industrial masterplan “Made in China 2025” aims to turn the country into a “manufacturing superpower” over the coming decades. This industrial policy will challenge the economic primacy of the current leading economies and international corporations. The strategy targets virtually all high-tech industries that strongly contribute to economic growth in advanced economies: automotive, aviation,