Whanganui Industrial Market Assessment Report 04 March 2019 Whanganui Industrial Market Assessment Report Prepared for Whanganui District Council Document reference: WHA 001.18 – Whanganui Industrial Land Assessment\Reporting\Whanganui Industrial Market Assessment Final.docx Date of this version: 04/03/2019 Report author(s): Rebecca Foy, Anamaria Rodriguez, and Derek Foy Director approval: Greg Akehurst www.me.co.nz Disclaimer: Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability of the information contained in this report, neither Market Economics Limited nor any of its employees shall be held liable for the information, opinions and forecasts expressed in this report. Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE .......................................................................................................... 5 1.2 APPROACH ........................................................................................................................... 5 2 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY DEFINITION ............................................................................................. 7 2.2 WHANGANUI DRAFT GROWTH STRATEGY 2008-2038 ............................................................... 10 2.3 GHD WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND STUDY .............................................................. 12 3 DEMAND ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................... 13 3.1 ECONOMIC FUTURES MODEL ................................................................................................. 13 3.2 EMPLOYMENT DEMAND PROJECTIONS ..................................................................................... 17 3.3 INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND PROJECTIONS ................................................................................ 20 4 MANUFACTURING ZONE LAND SUPPLY ........................................................................... 23 4.1 SPATIAL ECONOMY MODEL ................................................................................................... 23 4.2 WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ......................................................................................... 24 4.3 WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY BY LOCATION ...................................................................... 28 5 INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................... 65 5.1 FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ............................................................................... 65 5.2 PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS .................................................................................................. 68 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................................... 70 Figures FIGURE 2.1: CHARACTERISTICS OF INDUSTRIAL SPACE ...................................................................................... 9 FIGURE 3.6: WHANGANUI DISTRICT POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS, 2013-2048 ................................... 14 FIGURE 3.7: WHANGANUI DISTRICT POPULATION ESTIMATES, 1996-2018 .................................................... 15 FIGURE 3.8: WHANGANUI DISTRICT HOUSING INDICATORS COMPARED TO NZ AVERAGE ................................... 16 FIGURE 3.1: WHANGANUI MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2018-2048 (MECS) .................................. 18 FIGURE 3.2: WHANGANUI HIGH EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, 2018-2048 (MECS) ........................................ 19 FIGURE 3.3: WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS (HA) 2018 TO 2048 .......................................... 21 FIGURE 3.4: WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS (HA) MEDIUM ECONOMIC GROWTH 2018 TO 2048 ............................................................................................................................................................. 22 FIGURE 3.5: WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS (HA) HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH 2018 TO 2048 ... 22 FIGURE 4.1: 2017 WHANGANUI DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS BY INDUSTRY TYPE AND LOCATION ......... 25 FIGURE 4.2: WHANGANUI EMPLOYMENT ACTIVITY BY INDUSTRY, 2000-2017 ................................................ 26 FIGURE 4.3: EMPLOYMENT BY WHANGANUI LOCATION, 2017....................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4.4: HEADS ROAD WEST LARGEST INDUSTRIES BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 ............................................... 29 FIGURE 4.5: HEADS ROAD WEST EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ............................................. 31 FIGURE 4.6: HEADS ROAD WEST BUSINESS COUNT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ........................................ 32 FIGURE 4.7: HEADS ROAD WEST AVERAGE BUSINESS SIZE BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ............................... 32 FIGURE 4.8: HEADS ROAD WEST SHARE OF WHANGANUI MANUFACTURING ZONED AREA EMPLOYMENT, 2000-2017 ............................................................................................................................................................. 33 FIGURE 4.9: HEADS ROAD WEST ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY .................................................... 34 FIGURE 4.10: HEADS ROAD WEST CHARACTERISTICS AERIAL PHOTO ONE, JANUARY 2019 ................................ 35 FIGURE 4.11: HEADS ROAD WEST CHARACTERISTICS AERIAL PHOTO TWO, JANUARY 2019 ............................... 35 FIGURE 4.12: HEADS ROAD WEST CHARACTERISTICS AERIAL PHOTO THREE, JANUARY 2019 ............................. 36 FIGURE 4.13: MILL ROAD INDUSTRIES RANKED BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 ......................................................... 38 FIGURE 4.14: MILL ROAD EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ...................................................... 39 FIGURE 4.15: MILL ROAD BUSINESS COUNT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 .................................................. 39 FIGURE 4.16: MILL ROAD AVERAGE BUSINESS SIZE BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ........................................ 40 FIGURE 4.17: MILL ROAD ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY ............................................................. 41 FIGURE 4.18: MILL ROAD AERIAL PHOTO, JANUARY 2019 ............................................................................ 41 FIGURE 4.19: ARAMOHO INDUSTRIES RANKED BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 .......................................................... 43 FIGURE 4.20: ARAMOHO EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ....................................................... 45 FIGURE 4.21: ARAMOHO BUSINESS COUNT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ................................................... 45 FIGURE 4.22: ARAMOHO AVERAGE BUSINESS SIZE BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ......................................... 46 FIGURE 4.23: ARAMOHO LAND SUPPLY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................... 47 FIGURE 4.24: ARAMOHO AERIAL PHOTO, JANUARY 2019 ............................................................................. 48 FIGURE 4.25: HEADS ROAD EAST LARGEST INDUSTRIES RANKED BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 .................................. 49 FIGURE 4.26: HEADS ROAD EAST EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ............................................ 51 FIGURE 4.27: HEADS ROAD EAST BUSINESS COUNT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ....................................... 51 FIGURE 4.28: HEADS ROAD EAST AVERAGE BUSINESS SIZE BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 .............................. 52 FIGURE 4.29: HEADS ROAD EAST ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY ................................................... 53 FIGURE 4.30: EASTOWN INDUSTRIES RANKED BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 ........................................................... 54 FIGURE 4.31: EASTOWN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ........................................................ 55 FIGURE 4.32: EASTOWN BUSINESS COUNT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 .................................................... 55 FIGURE 4.33: EASTOWN ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY ............................................................... 56 FIGURE 4.34: EASTOWN AERIAL PHOTO, JANUARY 2019 .............................................................................. 57 FIGURE 4.35: LONDON STREET INDUSTRIES RANKED BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 .................................................. 58 FIGURE 4.36: LONDON STREET EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ............................................... 59 FIGURE 4.37: LONDON STREET BUSINESS COUNT BY INDUSTRY TYPE, 2000-2017 ........................................... 59 FIGURE 4.38: LONDON STREET ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY ...................................................... 60 FIGURE 4.39: PUTIKI INDUSTRIES RANKED BY EMPLOYMENT, 2017 ................................................................ 61 FIGURE 4.40: PUTIKI ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY .................................................................... 62 FIGURE 4.41: MARANGAI AERIAL PHOTO, JANUARY 2019 ............................................................................ 63 FIGURE 5.1: WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND 2018 TO 2048 (HA) ................................................... 65 FIGURE 5.2: WHANGANUI INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY, 2019 .......................................................................... 66 FIGURE 5.3: WHANGANUI MANUFACTURING ZONED LAND SUPPLY